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Sydney W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 14 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 75-94
20-13 16-30 17-27 22-24
Position#8
Record3-8
FormLLWLL
Points / game72.7
Allowed / game84.3
Sydney W
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
Position#7
Record3-7
FormLWLLL
Points / game75.1
Allowed / game83.6
AustraliaNBL WRound 9· Quaycentre
Women2025-26
Meetings · Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W
14 Dec 2025
SYDN75
ADEL94
19 Jan 2025
SYDN84
ADEL60
22 Dec 2024
SYDN73
ADEL86
17 Jan 2024
SYDN88
ADEL65
24 Feb 2023
SYDN101
ADEL91
26 Feb 2022
SYDN56
ADEL73
20 Jan 2022
SYDN52
ADEL77
13 Dec 2020
SYDN86
ADEL60
29 Dec 2019
SYDN72
ADEL80
08 Dec 2019
SYDN81
ADEL69
05 Dec 2018
SYDN72
ADEL82
23 Dec 2017
SYDN104
ADEL97
29 Nov 2017
SYDN74
ADEL77
18 Feb 2017
SYDN98
ADEL83
04 Dec 2015
SYDN67
ADEL94
13 Nov 2015
SYDN84
ADEL79
28 Nov 2014
SYDN66
ADEL54
01 Nov 2014
SYDN91
ADEL94
07 Dec 2013
SYDN62
ADEL63
26 Oct 2013
SYDN82
ADEL85
10 Nov 2012
SYDN94
ADEL78
25 Nov 2011
SYDN74
ADEL77
14 Jan 2011
SYDN82
ADEL73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
76-81
76
81
-5
66avg 65
H24/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
67-73
67
73
-6
56avg 65
A26/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
75-88
75
88
-13
53avg 65
A02/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-64
73
64
+9
60avg 65
H06/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
71-88
71
88
-17
55avg 65
A09/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
56-96
56
96
-40
44avg 65
A15/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
76-93
76
93
-17
62avg 65
A22/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
97-94 OT
97
94
+3
94avg 65
H26/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
64-80
64
80
-16
58avg 65
H28/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
60-93
60
93
-33
49avg 65
A06/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-22
15-21
16-19
17-19
22-16
20-18
16-14
9-25
18-23
18-17
21-30
18-18
17-14
14-12
21-12
21-26
14-24
19-22
10-28
28-14
10-34
16-21
9-25
21-16
21-28
20-23
16-19
19-23
15-19
24-24
22-19
20-19
13-26
19-16
24-13
8-25
15-31
13-26
17-23
15-13
156.5Avg total
71.5Scored
85.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)72.784.3157.0-11.527%
Season at home (4)77.579.8157.2-2.250%
Season away (7)70.086.9156.9-16.914%
Last 10 (10)71.585.0156.5-13.520%
Last 5 (5)70.691.2161.8-20.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)73.386.2159.5-12.917%
vs Similar ◀ (9)77.980.8158.7-2.956%
vs Weaker (3)80.373.0153.3+7.367%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
72-75
72
75
-3
61avg 63
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-110
76
110
-34
66avg 63
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-65
73
65
+8
68avg 63
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
88-71
88
71
+17
88avg 63
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-103
69
103
-34
52avg 63
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
74-82
74
82
-8
60avg 63
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 63
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 63
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 63
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 63
A09/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-26
24-18
18-13
21-18
25-16
13-32
22-32
16-30
22-21
19-19
17-10
15-15
24-14
22-19
28-10
14-28
22-26
21-21
15-31
11-25
19-25
17-20
15-22
23-15
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
158.7Avg total
75.1Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)75.183.6158.7-8.530%
Season at home (6)78.379.3157.7-1.050%
Season away (4)70.290.0160.2-19.80%
Last 10 (10)75.183.6158.7-8.530%
Last 5 (5)74.682.4157.0-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)68.480.6149.0-12.28%
vs Similar ◀ (14)79.278.5157.7+0.757%
vs Weaker (3)70.770.3141.0+0.333%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.4-6.4Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -3.7-3.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.4-6.4Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -3.7-3.7
Sydney WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H24/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A26/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A02/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H06/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A09/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
26-55
26
55
-29
A15/11
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A22/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H26/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H28/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
28-57
28
57
-29
A06/12
NBL W
78.8Avg total
35.1Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.343.682.9-4.437%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.841.282.0-0.443%-
Last 30 away (16)37.945.883.7-7.831%-
Last 10 (10)35.143.778.8-8.620%-
Last 5 (5)33.249.682.8-16.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)38.447.285.6-8.822%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)39.039.178.1-0.156%-
vs Weaker (3)45.335.781.0+9.767%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H19/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
85.1Avg total
41.4Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.041.080.0-2.037%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.642.182.6-1.544%-
Last 30 away (14)37.239.776.9-2.529%-
Last 10 (10)41.443.785.1-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)42.645.087.6-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)38.242.881.0-4.723%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)40.840.180.9+0.650%-
vs Weaker (3)34.336.771.0-2.333%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 71.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.015.9
37.0%
47.8%31.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.38.9
33.8%
32.8%26.7
🏀 Free throws16.612.6
75.9%
73.3%12.6
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 68.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.918.7
48.1%
47.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.76.9
31.8%
32.8%20.7
🏀 Free throws13.710.4
75.9%
73.3%10.4
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney W
LLWLLLWLLL
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLWLLWWLL
#8
League position
#7
-15.0
Net rating
-13.6
91.2
Offensive rating
92.8
106.2
Defensive rating
106.4
42.2%
Effective FG%
47.9%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
52.0%
23.5%
Turnover %
22.0%
37.6%
Off. rebound %
26.9%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.23
33.8%
3-point %
31.8%
75.0%
Assist %
59.8%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence91.2 · 92.8Defence106.2 · 106.4Shooting42.2% · 47.9%3-point %33.8% · 31.8%Ball care23.5% · 22.0%Off. rebounds37.6% · 26.9%Free throws0.24 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)20% · 30%
■ Sydney W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Sydney W wins
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
09/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W88-71
19/01/25Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W84-60
22/12/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W73-86
20/11/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W78-54
17/01/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W88-65
05/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W74-67
06/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W64-66
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
12/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W77-81
19/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W87-67
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/25ATownsville W60-93
28/11/25HBendigo W64-80
26/11/25HGeelong Venom W97-94 OT
22/11/25ASouthside W76-93
15/11/25ACanberra Capitals W56-96
09/11/25AAdelaide Lightning W71-88
06/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-64
02/11/25ABendigo W75-88
26/10/25APerth Lynx W67-73
24/10/25HSouthside W76-81
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT
18/11/25HBendigo W74-82
15/11/25ATownsville W69-103
09/11/25HSydney W88-71
01/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-65
25/10/25AGeelong Venom W76-110
19/10/25HPerth Lynx W72-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL27%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %27%50%14%
Points / game72.777.570.0
Allowed / game84.379.886.9
Point differential-11.5-2.2-16.9
Avg total157.0157.2156.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %9%25%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL30%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %30%50%0%
Points / game75.178.370.2
Allowed / game83.679.390.0
Point differential-8.5-1.0-19.8
Avg total158.7157.7160.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %10%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W109190%89.867.3+22.5
2 Bendigo W1210283%76.567.6+8.9
3 Perth Lynx W107370%76.975.7+1.2
4 Canberra Capitals W115645%74.878.2-3.4
5 Southside W103730%74.681.4-6.8
6 Adelaide Lightning W103730%75.183.6-8.5
7 Sydney W113827%72.784.3-11.5
8 Geelong Venom W123925%77.079.2-2.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney W2016172275
Adelaide Lightning W1330272494
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