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Bendigo W vs Adelaide Lightning W Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 19 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 06:30
Final 75-67
31-16 12-18 15-13 17-20
Position#3
Record10-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game67.6
Bendigo W 🏆
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#7
Record4-7
FormWLLLW
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game82.8
AustraliaNBL WRound 10· Red Energy Arena
Women2025-26
Meetings · Bendigo W v Adelaide Lightning W
19 Dec 2025
BEND75
ADEL67
30 Nov 2025
BEND71
ADEL65
24 Jan 2025
BEND65
ADEL59
02 Nov 2024
BEND84
ADEL70
10 Jan 2024
BEND96
ADEL68
15 Dec 2023
BEND81
ADEL77
10 Dec 2022
BEND84
ADEL75
24 Feb 2022
BEND77
ADEL84
25 Nov 2020
BEND83
ADEL89
01 Nov 2019
BEND67
ADEL54
10 Jan 2019
BEND81
ADEL92
03 Nov 2018
BEND70
ADEL52
27 Oct 2017
BEND66
ADEL79
27 Nov 2016
BEND69
ADEL51
08 Oct 2016
BEND77
ADEL63
14 Feb 2016
BEND78
ADEL92
11 Jan 2015
BEND75
ADEL64
06 Dec 2014
BEND81
ADEL55
30 Nov 2013
BEND78
ADEL65
11 Oct 2013
BEND65
ADEL59
24 Nov 2012
BEND68
ADEL62
04 Feb 2012
BEND87
ADEL97
05 Nov 2011
BEND72
ADEL81
18 Feb 2011
BEND84
ADEL81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bendigo W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Bendigo WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#8
W
88-75
88
75
+13
89avg 74
H02/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-71
73
71
+2
61avg 74
H08/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
64-79
64
79
-15
54avg 74
A16/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
82-74
82
74
+8
77avg 74
A18/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
87-58
87
58
+29
83avg 74
H23/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
80-64
80
64
+16
69avg 74
A28/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
71-65
71
65
+6
57avg 74
H30/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
93-58
93
58
+35
94avg 74
H05/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
75-67
75
67
+8
66avg 74
A07/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
77-71
77
71
+6
81avg 74
A13/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-18
17-18
30-21
18-18
28-18
16-19
11-21
18-13
19-21
16-17
15-28
14-13
25-19
20-17
22-15
15-23
16-20
21-13
23-10
27-15
26-13
16-19
13-24
25-8
19-19
24-27
19-11
9-8
25-20
20-7
24-17
24-14
17-14
12-12
18-18
28-23
26-17
18-15
17-16
16-23
147.2Avg total
79.0Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)76.567.6144.1+8.983%
Season at home (7)77.165.1142.3+12.086%
Season away (5)75.671.0146.6+4.680%
Last 10 (10)79.068.2147.2+10.890%
Last 5 (5)79.265.0144.2+14.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)72.370.3142.7+2.033%
vs Similar (5)74.065.4139.4+8.6100%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)81.469.8151.2+11.586%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
76-110
76
110
-34
66avg 65
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
73-65
73
65
+8
68avg 65
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
88-71
88
71
+17
88avg 65
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
69-103
69
103
-34
52avg 65
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
74-82
74
82
-8
60avg 65
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
99-93 OT
99
93
+6
33avg 65
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
64-90
64
90
-26
45avg 65
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
65-71
65
71
-6
55avg 65
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
71-76
71
76
-5
58avg 65
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
92avg 65
A14/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
13-32
22-32
16-30
22-21
19-19
17-10
15-15
24-14
22-19
28-10
14-28
22-26
21-21
15-31
11-25
19-25
17-20
15-22
23-15
27-24
25-22
13-21
19-17
19-26
17-21
9-22
19-21
19-19
27-24
11-19
8-9
18-20
25-24
17-16
11-16
13-20
30-16
27-17
24-22
160.9Avg total
77.3Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)76.882.8159.6-6.036%
Season at home (6)78.379.3157.7-1.050%
Season away (5)75.087.0162.0-12.020%
Last 10 (10)77.383.6160.9-6.340%
Last 5 (5)78.681.0159.6-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)67.679.7147.2-12.18%
vs Similar (15)80.278.3158.5+1.960%
vs Weaker (3)70.770.3141.0+0.333%
This opponent (Bendigo W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.5+4.5Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -3.8-3.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.5+4.5Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -3.8-3.8
Bendigo WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Bendigo WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney W
#8
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H02/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H08/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A16/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A18/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H23/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
42-32
42
32
+10
A28/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H30/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H05/12
NBL W
Southside W
#4
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A07/12
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A13/12
NBL W
74.7Avg total
40.4Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.936.077.9+5.973%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.835.677.4+6.175%-
Last 30 away (14)42.136.478.4+5.771%-
Last 10 (10)40.434.374.7+6.180%-
Last 5 (5)40.632.673.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)35.338.373.7-3.033%-
vs Similar (5)35.831.867.6+4.060%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.236.680.8+7.682%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A25/10
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H09/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H18/11
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H21/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H25/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A30/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A09/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#8
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/12
NBL W
85.3Avg total
42.4Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.940.479.3-1.540%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.241.381.5-1.147%-
Last 30 away (15)37.639.577.1-1.933%-
Last 10 (10)42.442.985.3-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)44.043.287.2+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)37.542.079.5-4.525%-
vs Similar (15)40.939.980.8+1.153%-
vs Weaker (3)34.336.771.0-2.333%-
This opponent (Bendigo W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bendigo Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bendigo W: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.218.9
48.2%
47.8%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.79.8
35.4%
32.8%29.4
🏀 Free throws15.511.3
72.9%
73.3%11.3
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 70.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.919.1
49.1%
47.8%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.67.0
34.0%
32.8%21.0
🏀 Free throws14.211.3
79.6%
73.3%11.3
They take 59.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bendigo W
WWWWWWWLWW
Adelaide Lightning W
WLLLWLLWWL
#3
League position
#7
+14.9
Net rating
-11.2
104.4
Offensive rating
96.0
89.5
Defensive rating
107.2
50.2%
Effective FG%
49.7%
41.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
18.6%
Turnover %
21.7%
31.5%
Off. rebound %
26.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.4%
3-point %
34.0%
55.4%
Assist %
59.8%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence104.4 · 96.0Defence89.5 · 107.2Shooting50.2% · 49.7%3-point %35.4% · 34.0%Ball care18.6% · 21.7%Off. rebounds31.5% · 26.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)90% · 40%
■ Bendigo W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Bendigo W wins
0
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
30/11/25Bendigo W v Adelaide Lightning W71-65
18/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Bendigo W74-82
24/01/25Bendigo W v Adelaide Lightning W65-59
27/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Bendigo W67-95
02/11/24Bendigo W v Adelaide Lightning W84-70
10/01/24Bendigo W v Adelaide Lightning W96-68
15/12/23Bendigo W v Adelaide Lightning W81-77
02/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Bendigo W65-70 OT
14/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Bendigo W68-86
28/12/22Adelaide Lightning W v Bendigo W66-78
Bendigo Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25AGeelong Venom W77-71
07/12/25ASouthside W75-67
05/12/25HGeelong Venom W93-58
30/11/25HAdelaide Lightning W71-65
28/11/25ASydney W80-64
23/11/25HPerth Lynx W87-58
18/11/25AAdelaide Lightning W82-74
16/11/25APerth Lynx W64-79
08/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-71
02/11/25HSydney W88-75
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/25ASydney W94-75
09/12/25ACanberra Capitals W71-76
30/11/25ABendigo W65-71
25/11/25HTownsville W64-90
21/11/25HGeelong Venom W99-93 OT
18/11/25HBendigo W74-82
15/11/25ATownsville W69-103
09/11/25HSydney W88-71
01/11/25HCanberra Capitals W73-65
25/10/25AGeelong Venom W76-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bendigo W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayLWWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %83%86%80%
Points / game76.577.175.6
Allowed / game67.665.171.0
Point differential+8.9+12.0+4.6
Avg total144.1142.3146.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW36%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayLLLLW20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %36%50%20%
Points / game76.878.375.0
Allowed / game82.879.387.0
Point differential-6.0-1.0-12.0
Avg total159.6157.7162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%17%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %9%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W1210283%76.567.6+8.9
2 Townsville W119282%89.070.0+19.0
3 Perth Lynx W118373%78.776.2+2.5
4 Canberra Capitals W115645%74.878.2-3.4
5 Southside W114736%75.679.3-3.6
6 Adelaide Lightning W114736%76.882.8-6.0
7 Sydney W123925%72.985.1-12.2
8 Geelong Venom W1331023%75.579.8-4.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bendigo W3112151775
Adelaide Lightning W1618132067
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