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AEK Athens vs Tofas Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 96-88
19-18 30-33 23-17 24-20
Position#1
Record9-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game73.6
vs
Position#27
Record6-7
FormLLLWL
Points / game83.6
Allowed / game85.2
EuropeChampions LeagueRound 5· SUNEL Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · AEK Athens v Tofas
11 Mar 2026
AAT96
TOF88
04 Jan 2023
AAT73
TOF70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Athens winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tofas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK AthensLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
Mykonos
#7
W
90-65
90
65
+25
94avg 80
H11/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#11
W
79-71
79
71
+8
no box
A17/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
W
88-73
88
73
+15
84avg 80
H21/01
Champions League
Alba Berlin
#11
W
88-80
88
80
+8
82avg 80
H28/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
96-83
96
83
+13
97avg 80
H31/01
Basket League
Tofas
#27
W
93-90 OT
93
90
+3
91avg 80
A03/02
Champions League
Maroussi
#12
W
83-74
83
74
+9
82avg 80
H07/02
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
W
90-62
90
62
+28
90avg 80
A10/02
Champions League
PAOK
#3
W
88-71
88
71
+17
91avg 80
A14/02
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
102-85
102
85
+17
96avg 80
H07/03
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-16
18-27
23-11
23-11
20-16
19-18
21-22
19-15
20-19
14-18
19-22
35-14
22-26
20-20
22-24
24-10
20-31
29-11
22-22
25-19
27-20
15-24
12-14
23-19
23-15
14-26
17-18
29-15
26-19
27-9
18-19
19-15
14-21
23-14
25-20
26-16
24-21
28-17
25-19
25-28
165.1Avg total
89.7Scored
75.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)85.373.6158.9+11.790%
Season at home (5)92.276.4168.6+15.8100%
Season away (5)78.470.8149.2+7.680%
Last 10 (10)89.775.4165.1+14.3100%
Last 5 (5)91.276.4167.6+14.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.0100.5178.5-22.50%
vs Similar (5)80.076.8156.8+3.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)87.273.9161.1+13.395%
This opponent (Tofas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TofasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTofas
Date
Competition
Fenerbahce
#1
L
82-90
82
90
-8
no box
A18/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Alba Berlin
#11
L
90-94
90
94
-4
85avg 81
H20/01
Champions League
Galatasaray
#7
L
78-91
78
91
-13
68avg 81
H24/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AS Karditsas
#32
W
93-79
93
79
+14
91avg 81
A27/01
Champions League
Turk Telekom
#5
L
78-95
78
95
-17
75avg 81
A31/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AEK Athens
#1
L
90-93 OT
90
93
-3
85avg 81
H03/02
Champions League
Mersin SK
#13
L
83-88
83
88
-5
78avg 81
H07/02
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Alba Berlin
#11
L
60-69
60
69
-9
47avg 81
A10/02
Champions League
Buyukcekmece
#16
W
91-81
91
81
+10
89avg 81
A14/02
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Esenler Erokspor
#8
L
81-91
81
91
-10
78avg 81
H08/03
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
15-26
21-23
23-22
20-12
23-22
25-26
22-34
16-31
14-20
27-23
21-17
19-22
30-24
26-16
18-17
23-26
27-16
15-27
13-26
20-27
24-15
14-12
19-23
20-32
24-21
20-14
19-21
18-11
15-22
14-18
13-18
19-7
22-21
21-33
29-20
19-24
23-20
21-28
18-19
169.7Avg total
82.6Scored
87.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)83.685.2168.8-1.646%
Season at home (7)86.686.3172.9+0.357%
Season away (6)80.284.0164.2-3.833%
Last 10 (10)82.687.1169.7-4.520%
Last 5 (5)81.084.4165.4-3.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)80.284.5164.7-4.231%
vs Similar (11)82.085.6167.6-3.627%
vs Weaker (6)90.380.5170.8+9.883%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +8.6+8.6Q4: -2.2-2.2
-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +8.6+8.6Q4: -2.2-2.2
AEK AthensTofas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mykonos
#7
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H11/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#11
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A17/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H21/01
Champions League
Alba Berlin
#11
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H28/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H31/01
Basket League
Tofas
#27
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A03/02
Champions League
Maroussi
#12
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H07/02
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
W
53-28
53
28
+25
A10/02
Champions League
PAOK
#3
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A14/02
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H07/03
Basket League
81.7Avg total
42.9Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.439.081.4+3.470%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.639.881.4+1.862%-
Last 30 away (14)43.438.081.4+5.479%-
Last 10 (10)42.938.881.7+4.160%-
Last 5 (5)44.237.281.4+7.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.058.090.0-26.00%-
vs Similar (5)39.238.277.4+1.060%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.337.381.6+7.082%-
This opponent (Tofas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TofasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fenerbahce
#1
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A18/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Alba Berlin
#11
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H20/01
Champions League
Galatasaray
#7
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H24/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AS Karditsas
#32
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A27/01
Champions League
Turk Telekom
#5
W
50-42
50
42
+8
A31/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AEK Athens
#1
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H03/02
Champions League
Mersin SK
#13
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H07/02
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Alba Berlin
#11
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A10/02
Champions League
Buyukcekmece
#16
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A14/02
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Esenler Erokspor
#8
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H08/03
Basketbol Süper Ligi
83.2Avg total
41.4Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.540.981.4-0.443%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.141.381.4-1.143%-
Last 30 away (16)40.840.681.4+0.244%-
Last 10 (10)41.441.883.2-0.450%-
Last 5 (5)40.840.080.8+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)39.640.480.0-0.846%-
vs Similar (11)39.242.781.9-3.59%-
vs Weaker (6)44.838.883.7+6.0100%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 89.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.2 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.420.5
56.3%
52.4%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.210.2
44.0%
33.8%30.6
🏀 Free throws23.418.2
77.8%
74.1%18.2
They take 59.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tofastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tofas: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.2 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.220.1
55.5%
52.4%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.88.4
33.9%
33.8%25.2
🏀 Free throws21.716.7
77.0%
74.1%16.7
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Athens
WWWWWWWWWW
Tofas
LWLLLLWLLL
#1
League position
#27
+16.0
Net rating
-4.2
109.9
Offensive rating
96.3
93.8
Defensive rating
100.5
60.1%
Effective FG%
53.6%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
15.2%
Turnover %
15.4%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.36
44.0%
3-point %
33.9%
68.4%
Assist %
69.5%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence109.9 · 96.3Defence93.8 · 100.5Shooting60.1% · 53.6%3-point %44.0% · 33.9%Ball care15.2% · 15.4%Off. rebounds38.7% · -Free throws0.39 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)100% · 20%
■ AEK Athens   ■ Tofas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
AEK Athens wins
0
Tofas wins
DateGameScore
03/02/26Tofas v AEK Athens90-93 OT
10/01/23Tofas v AEK Athens82-85
04/01/23AEK Athens v Tofas73-70
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HPromitheas102-85
14/02/26APAOK88-71
10/02/26AAS Karditsas90-62
07/02/26HMaroussi83-74
03/02/26ATofas93-90 OT
31/01/26HKolossos Rhodes96-83
28/01/26HAlba Berlin88-80
21/01/26HAS Karditsas88-73
17/01/26AAS Karditsas79-71
11/01/26HMykonos90-65
Tofaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HEsenler Erokspor81-91
14/02/26ABuyukcekmece91-81
10/02/26AAlba Berlin60-69
07/02/26HMersin SK83-88
03/02/26HAEK Athens90-93 OT
31/01/26ATurk Telekom78-95
27/01/26AAS Karditsas93-79
24/01/26HGalatasaray78-91
20/01/26HAlba Berlin90-94
18/01/26AFenerbahce82-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Athens
Champions League 2025
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW90%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %90%100%80%
Points / game85.392.278.4
Allowed / game73.676.470.8
Point differential+11.7+15.8+7.6
Avg total158.9168.6149.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%80%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %20%20%20%
Tofas
Champions League 2025
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL46%
HomeWWWLL57%
AwayLLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %46%57%33%
Points / game83.686.680.2
Allowed / game85.286.384.0
Point differential-1.6+0.3-3.8
Avg total168.8172.9164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %15%29%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Joventut Badalona1110191%87.577.1+10.4
2 AEK Athens109190%85.373.6+11.7
3 Gran Canaria109190%82.270.6+11.6
4 Unicaja119282%90.374.8+15.5
5 Galatasaray119282%88.580.5+8.0
6 Alba Berlin108280%87.680.1+7.5
7 Chalon/Saone1612475%89.185.6+3.4
8 Tenerife107370%84.676.3+8.3
9 Murcia32167%89.783.7+6.0
10 Bakken Bears32167%88.086.0+2.0
11 Antwerp Giants32167%72.775.3-2.7
12 Rytas106460%93.388.0+5.3
13 Le Mans127558%87.078.5+8.5
14 Levice127558%79.279.8-0.6
15 Reggiana21150%88.584.0+4.5
16 Den Bosch21150%78.575.0+3.5
17 Wurzburg147750%81.678.1+3.4
18 Juventus21150%87.085.0+2.0
19 BC Kalev/Cramo21150%81.082.5-1.5
20 PAOK21150%76.079.5-3.5
21 FC Porto21150%81.089.5-8.5
22 Mersin SK84450%80.088.6-8.6
23 Tofas136746%83.685.2-1.6
24 Cholet94544%89.087.0+2.0
25 Szolnoki Olaj94544%76.476.4+0.0
26 Trapani73443%75.179.1-4.0
27 Trieste135838%81.884.3-2.5
28 Spartak Subotica83538%78.279.4-1.1
29 Heidelberg83538%79.582.1-2.6
30 Promitheas83538%80.186.5-6.4
31 Legia62433%78.077.8+0.2
32 Hapoel Holon124833%82.384.8-2.4
33 Nymburk124833%79.383.8-4.4
34 Bnei Herzliya62433%84.890.5-5.7
35 Bursaspor93633%76.883.0-6.2
36 AS Karditsas124833%77.385.9-8.6
37 Sabah Baku61517%81.090.7-9.7
38 VEF Riga61517%68.580.0-11.5
39 Igokea61517%75.387.0-11.7
40 Benfica61517%71.592.2-20.7
41 Kutaisi1010%81.084.0-3.0
42 Szombathely1010%79.083.0-4.0
43 Basketball Braunschweig1010%74.081.0-7.0
44 CSM Oradea1010%71.079.0-8.0
45 Rilski Sportist1010%84.093.0-9.0
46 Oostende6060%81.092.7-11.7
47 Pelister1010%87.099.0-12.0
48 Studentski Centar1010%67.079.0-12.0
49 Trepca1010%68.080.0-12.0
50 Karhu Basket1010%89.0103.0-14.0
51 Lublin1010%84.0100.0-16.0
52 AEK Larnaca1010%69.090.0-21.0
53 Fribourg Olympic1010%80.0107.0-27.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AEK Athens1930232496
Tofas1833172088
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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