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Aguada vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 15 Jun 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 88-74
25-21 26-19 14-19 23-15
Position#1
Record32-10
FormWWWWL
Points / game89.9
Allowed / game82.4
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#2
Record31-12
FormWWLLW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game73.1
UruguayLiga UruguayaLiga Uruguaya - Final· Aguada
Other2023-24
Meetings · Aguada v Penarol
22 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA107
16 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA81
12 Jun 2026
AGUA78
PENA71
09 Mar 2026
AGUA86
PENA80
27 Jan 2026
AGUA91
PENA80
23 Jan 2026
AGUA v PENA
upcoming
14 Jan 2025
AGUA77
PENA69
14 Jun 2024
AGUA88
PENA74
06 Jun 2024
AGUA97
PENA90
12 Apr 2024
AGUA77
PENA82
27 Oct 2023
AGUA77
PENA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Malvin
#5
W
91-67
91
67
+24
86avg 85
H30/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
83-81
83
81
+2
75avg 85
A02/05
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
100-95
100
95
+5
98avg 85
H08/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
115-101
115
101
+14
112avg 85
H15/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
89-98
89
98
-9
84avg 85
A18/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
92-87
92
87
+5
89avg 85
H21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
97-82
97
82
+15
96avg 85
A25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
66-65
66
65
+1
58avg 85
A03/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
97-90
97
90
+7
99avg 85
H07/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
78-95
78
95
-17
73avg 85
A11/06
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-25
28-13
29-18
17-11
21-21
19-15
24-27
19-18
31-27
32-15
18-29
19-24
26-25
29-20
32-19
28-37
26-27
22-22
22-25
19-24
25-15
26-29
22-16
19-27
26-28
25-18
26-17
20-19
17-26
9-11
28-16
12-12
32-23
21-25
18-24
26-18
29-23
19-23
18-24
12-25
176.9Avg total
90.8Scored
86.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)89.982.4172.3+7.576%
Season at home (21)92.683.3175.9+9.386%
Season away (21)87.281.5168.7+5.767%
Last 10 (10)90.886.1176.9+4.780%
Last 5 (5)86.083.8169.8+2.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)90.488.6179.0+1.862%
vs Weaker (17)92.580.5173.1+12.088%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Trouville
#8
W
92-64
92
64
+28
84avg 75
A04/05
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
87-77
87
77
+10
87avg 75
H07/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
89-74
89
74
+15
83avg 75
H14/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
68-87
68
87
-19
55avg 75
A17/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
76-80
76
80
-4
63avg 75
H22/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
80-61
80
61
+19
80avg 75
A24/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
103-66
103
66
+37
110avg 75
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
65-66
65
66
-1
51avg 75
H03/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
90-97
90
97
-7
79avg 75
A07/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
95-78
95
78
+17
85avg 75
H11/06
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-13
17-12
25-20
21-19
28-25
23-18
17-20
19-14
18-22
16-15
28-19
27-18
20-23
20-17
16-33
12-14
20-28
25-18
11-20
20-14
23-18
18-18
15-12
24-13
30-14
21-20
24-23
28-9
26-17
11-9
16-28
12-12
23-32
25-21
24-18
18-26
23-29
23-19
24-18
25-12
159.5Avg total
84.5Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (43)83.073.1156.1+9.872%
Season at home (23)83.771.3155.1+12.474%
Season away (20)82.075.2157.2+6.970%
Last 10 (10)84.575.0159.5+9.560%
Last 5 (5)86.673.6160.2+13.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)80.179.6159.7+0.644%
vs Weaker (21)82.872.1154.9+10.776%
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: +5.5+5.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: +5.5+5.5
AguadaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#5
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H30/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A02/05
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
63-42
63
42
+21
H08/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
55-45
55
45
+10
H15/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A18/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A03/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
53-48
53
48
+5
H07/06
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A11/06
Liga Uruguaya
91.1Avg total
48.0Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.242.290.4+6.067%-
Last 30 at home (14)50.242.292.4+8.079%-
Last 30 away (16)46.442.288.6+4.256%-
Last 10 (10)48.043.191.1+4.980%-
Last 5 (5)45.844.290.0+1.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)45.844.990.7+0.846%-
vs Weaker (17)50.040.190.1+9.982%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trouville
#8
W
46-25
46
25
+21
A04/05
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
51-43
51
43
+8
H07/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H14/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A17/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H22/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A24/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H03/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A07/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H11/06
Liga Uruguaya
82.7Avg total
43.9Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.338.381.6+4.957%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.737.681.3+6.256%-
Last 30 away (12)42.639.582.1+3.158%-
Last 10 (10)43.938.882.7+5.150%-
Last 5 (5)44.639.484.0+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.939.880.7+1.144%-
vs Weaker (21)44.337.782.0+6.662%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 89.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.617.7
56.0%
51.0%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.612.6
37.5%
33.3%37.8
🏀 Free throws20.716.6
80.2%
71.7%16.6
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.519.6
52.3%
51.0%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.810.5
35.2%
33.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws19.813.4
67.7%
71.7%13.4
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Jun 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LWWWWLWWWW
Penarol
WLLWWLLWWW
#1
League position
#2
+5.9
Net rating
+13.4
118.1
Offensive rating
111.6
112.2
Defensive rating
98.2
56.1%
Effective FG%
52.5%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
15.7%
Turnover %
15.3%
28.8%
Off. rebound %
31.4%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.29
37.5%
3-point %
35.2%
67.0%
Assist %
54.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence118.1 · 111.6Defence112.2 · 98.2Shooting56.1% · 52.5%3-point %37.5% · 35.2%Ball care15.7% · 15.3%Off. rebounds28.8% · 31.4%Free throws0.32 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Aguada   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Aguada wins
3
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
11/06/24Penarol v Aguada95-78
07/06/24Aguada v Penarol97-90
03/06/24Penarol v Aguada65-66
13/04/24Aguada v Penarol77-82
19/03/24Penarol v Aguada81-82
16/01/24Penarol v Aguada88-87
28/10/23Aguada v Penarol77-76
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/06/24APenarol78-95
07/06/24HPenarol97-90
03/06/24APenarol66-65
25/05/24ANacional97-82
21/05/24HNacional92-87
18/05/24ANacional89-98
15/05/24HNacional115-101
08/05/24HMalvin100-95
02/05/24AMalvin83-81
30/04/24HMalvin91-67
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/06/24HAguada95-78
07/06/24AAguada90-97
03/06/24HAguada65-66
28/05/24HDefensor103-66
24/05/24ADefensor80-61
22/05/24HDefensor76-80
17/05/24ADefensor68-87
14/05/24HDefensor89-74
07/05/24HTrouville87-77
04/05/24ATrouville92-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL76%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayWLWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422121
Win %76%86%67%
Points / game89.992.687.2
Allowed / game82.483.381.5
Point differential+7.5+9.3+5.7
Avg total172.3175.9168.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%48%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won79% (14)86% (7)71% (7)
Overtime %2%5%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW72%
HomeWLWLW74%
AwayWWLWL70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games432320
Win %72%74%70%
Points / game83.083.782.0
Allowed / game73.171.375.2
Point differential+9.8+12.4+6.9
Avg total156.1155.1157.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+49%57%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (12)38% (8)50% (4)
Overtime %2%4%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Aguada42321076%89.982.4+7.5
2 Penarol43311272%83.073.1+9.8
3 Nacional39251464%85.380.4+4.9
4 Defensor39251464%80.779.4+1.3
5 Malvin38211755%79.877.4+2.3
6 Hebraica y Macabi35181751%81.082.3-1.4
7 Bigua35161946%82.381.8+0.4
8 Trouville41172441%74.978.5-3.6
9 Urupan37152241%76.379.1-2.8
10 Cordon36132336%70.975.1-4.1
11 CA Racing31233%83.081.7+1.3
12 Goes32102231%73.377.9-4.6
13 Larre Borges323299%64.879.8-15.0
14 Remeros Mercedes2020%77.585.5-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2526142388
Penarol2119191574
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