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Penarol vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 16 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 88-87
31-20 23-22 19-25 15-20
Position#2
Record12-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game84.9
Allowed / game69.4
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#1
Record12-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game86.6
Allowed / game78.6
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2023-24
Meetings · Penarol v Aguada
19 Jun 2026
PENA80
AGUA71
09 Jun 2026
PENA89
AGUA84
03 Jun 2026
PENA99
AGUA82
17 Apr 2026
PENA103
AGUA95
07 Nov 2025
PENA103
AGUA89
17 Mar 2025
PENA78
AGUA85
28 Oct 2024
PENA86
AGUA77
17 Jun 2024
PENA71
AGUA88
10 Jun 2024
PENA95
AGUA78
02 Jun 2024
PENA65
AGUA66
18 Mar 2024
PENA81
AGUA82
15 Jan 2024
PENA88
AGUA87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Trouville
#8
W
88-52
88
52
+36
58avg 75
H23/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
75-67
75
67
+8
48avg 75
A26/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
79-72
79
72
+7
67avg 75
A07/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
97-77
97
77
+20
94avg 75
A13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
89-64
89
64
+25
87avg 75
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
89-62
89
62
+27
83avg 75
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
90-64
90
64
+26
90avg 75
H22/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
87-81
87
81
+6
77avg 75
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
73-52
73
52
+21
68avg 75
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
82-58
82
58
+24
84avg 75
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-11
19-8
19-16
20-17
16-19
19-24
26-12
14-12
19-19
14-20
20-18
26-15
20-30
26-17
22-18
29-12
23-11
20-10
30-21
16-22
24-15
27-12
14-14
24-21
31-18
23-14
26-16
10-16
28-14
23-33
15-19
21-15
18-16
17-13
18-7
20-16
30-17
24-22
13-13
15-6
149.8Avg total
84.9Scored
64.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)84.969.4154.4+15.586%
Season at home (6)85.763.0148.7+22.7100%
Season away (8)84.474.2158.6+10.175%
Last 10 (10)84.964.9149.8+20.0100%
Last 5 (5)84.263.4147.6+20.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (2)86.577.0163.5+9.550%
vs Weaker (12)84.768.2152.8+16.592%
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Nacional
#3
L
68-77
68
77
-9
55avg 82
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
105-91
105
91
+14
103avg 82
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
87-85
87
85
+2
82avg 82
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
79-84
79
84
-5
62avg 82
A28/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
91-58
91
58
+33
97avg 82
H01/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
94-81
94
81
+13
88avg 82
A05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
92-77
92
77
+15
90avg 82
H15/12
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
90-82
90
82
+8
88avg 82
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
78-75
78
75
+3
74avg 82
H05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
104-83
104
83
+21
105avg 82
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-29
19-13
14-18
10-17
28-19
29-25
23-26
25-21
26-27
19-20
22-21
20-17
17-26
16-23
24-15
22-20
23-10
23-23
20-17
25-8
32-22
19-22
22-19
21-18
28-20
25-20
21-20
18-17
26-22
22-16
21-14
21-30
20-19
28-16
15-23
15-17
29-14
25-27
22-18
28-24
168.1Avg total
88.8Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)86.678.6165.2+8.080%
Season at home (8)88.177.1165.2+11.0100%
Season away (7)84.980.3165.1+4.657%
Last 10 (10)88.879.3168.1+9.580%
Last 5 (5)91.679.6171.2+12.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)75.977.5153.4-1.650%
vs Weaker (16)88.479.2167.7+9.281%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +6.9+6.9Q1: +4.6+4.6Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +4.9+4.9Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: +1.6+1.6
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +6.9+6.9Q1: +4.6+4.6Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +4.9+4.9Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: +1.6+1.6
PenarolAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trouville
#8
W
49-19
49
19
+30
H23/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A26/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A07/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A13/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
54-32
54
32
+22
H22/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A04/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
79.4Avg total
45.1Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (14)43.935.979.8+7.957%-
Last 30 at home (6)46.531.778.2+14.883%-
Last 30 away (8)41.939.181.0+2.838%-
Last 10 (10)45.134.379.4+10.870%-
Last 5 (5)49.034.883.8+14.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (2)41.542.584.0-1.00%-
vs Weaker (12)44.234.879.1+9.467%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nacional
#3
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H24/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A28/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H01/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
53-40
53
40
+13
H15/12
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H05/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
54-41
54
41
+13
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
89.2Avg total
47.9Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.040.783.7+2.367%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.739.784.3+5.080%-
Last 30 away (15)41.341.783.0-0.353%-
Last 10 (10)47.941.389.2+6.680%-
Last 5 (5)50.839.690.4+11.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.539.478.9+0.164%-
vs Weaker (16)46.141.887.8+4.369%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 83.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.020.3
54.9%
51.0%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.310.5
33.5%
33.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws15.911.8
74.2%
71.7%11.8
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.919.7
54.9%
51.0%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.111.6
34.0%
33.3%34.8
🏀 Free throws17.613.8
78.4%
71.7%13.8
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WWWWWWWWWW
Aguada
WWWWWWLWWL
#2
League position
#1
+26.8
Net rating
+11.2
112.5
Offensive rating
112.5
85.7
Defensive rating
101.2
52.8%
Effective FG%
53.0%
41.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.8%
14.4%
Turnover %
14.1%
30.4%
Off. rebound %
25.8%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.25
33.5%
3-point %
34.0%
60.4%
Assist %
69.0%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence112.5 · 112.5Defence85.7 · 101.2Shooting52.8% · 53.0%3-point %33.5% · 34.0%Ball care14.4% · 14.1%Off. rebounds30.4% · 25.8%Free throws0.23 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)100% · 80%
■ Penarol   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Penarol wins
1
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
28/10/23Aguada v Penarol77-76
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/24HMalvin82-58
10/01/24HHebraica y Macabi73-52
04/01/24ABigua87-81
22/12/23HUrupan90-64
19/12/23HLarre Borges89-62
16/12/23AUrupan89-64
13/12/23ANacional97-77
07/12/23ADefensor79-72
26/11/23ACordon75-67
23/11/23HTrouville88-52
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/24ALarre Borges104-83
05/01/24HCordon78-75
19/12/23ATrouville90-82
15/12/23HDefensor92-77
05/12/23ABigua94-81
01/12/23HUrupan91-58
28/11/23AHebraica y Macabi79-84
24/11/23HMalvin87-85
21/11/23HGoes105-91
18/11/23ANacional68-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1468
Win %86%100%75%
Points / game84.985.784.4
Allowed / game69.463.074.2
Point differential+15.5+22.7+10.1
Avg total154.4148.7158.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%83%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %7%17%0%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLWWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %80%100%57%
Points / game86.688.184.9
Allowed / game78.677.180.3
Point differential+8.0+11.0+4.6
Avg total165.2165.2165.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%50%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional1513287%92.781.5+11.2
2 Penarol1412286%84.969.4+15.5
3 Aguada1512380%86.678.6+8.0
4 Defensor1610662%81.878.5+3.3
5 Hebraica y Macabi169756%82.179.6+2.5
6 Malvin178947%82.180.4+1.7
7 Bigua167944%84.385.6-1.2
8 Trouville1661038%80.686.4-5.8
9 Cordon1551033%73.177.4-4.3
10 Urupan1651131%77.083.8-6.8
11 Goes1651131%80.087.0-7.0
12 Larre Borges1621412%77.091.4-14.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol3123191588
Aguada2022252087
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