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Penarol vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 19 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 81-82
13-12 19-20 16-15 33-35
Position#2
Record18-4
FormWLWWL
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game70.1
vs
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
Position#1
Record19-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game89.2
Allowed / game80.2
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2023-24
Meetings · Penarol v Aguada
19 Jun 2026
PENA80
AGUA71
09 Jun 2026
PENA89
AGUA84
03 Jun 2026
PENA99
AGUA82
17 Apr 2026
PENA103
AGUA95
07 Nov 2025
PENA103
AGUA89
17 Mar 2025
PENA78
AGUA85
28 Oct 2024
PENA86
AGUA77
17 Jun 2024
PENA71
AGUA88
10 Jun 2024
PENA95
AGUA78
02 Jun 2024
PENA65
AGUA66
18 Mar 2024
PENA81
AGUA82
15 Jan 2024
PENA88
AGUA87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
73-52
73
52
+21
68avg 72
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
82-58
82
58
+24
84avg 72
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
88-87
88
87
+1
85avg 72
H16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
81-64
81
64
+17
72avg 72
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
90-65
90
65
+25
83avg 72
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
91-83
91
83
+8
84avg 72
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
65-75
65
75
-10
51avg 72
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
W
57-52
57
52
+5
45avg 72
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
79-68
79
68
+11
70avg 72
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
62-77
62
77
-15
49avg 72
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-16
17-13
18-7
20-16
30-17
24-22
13-13
15-6
31-20
23-22
19-25
15-20
18-10
25-16
18-14
20-24
25-14
30-16
17-16
18-19
26-18
26-27
12-18
27-20
22-24
17-21
11-12
15-18
13-14
14-16
20-13
10-9
24-14
14-16
22-17
19-21
20-18
11-22
14-17
17-20
144.9Avg total
76.8Scored
68.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)81.970.1152.0+11.882%
Season at home (11)83.467.0150.4+16.491%
Season away (11)80.573.3153.7+7.273%
Last 10 (10)76.868.1144.9+8.780%
Last 5 (5)70.871.0141.8-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)85.077.2162.2+7.875%
vs Weaker (18)81.268.6149.8+12.783%
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Larre Borges
#13
W
104-83
104
83
+21
105avg 84
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
87-88
87
88
-1
82avg 84
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
L
105-111 OT
105
111
-6
no box
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
75-74
75
74
+1
64avg 84
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
87-77
87
77
+10
78avg 84
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
96-86
96
86
+10
95avg 84
H02/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
111-74
111
74
+37
115avg 84
A09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
107-85
107
85
+22
104avg 84
H15/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
82-77
82
77
+5
78avg 84
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
92-74
92
74
+18
89avg 84
H16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-14
25-27
22-18
28-24
20-31
22-23
25-19
20-15
26-18
30-25
21-36
21-19
17-18
22-23
21-15
15-18
25-25
29-19
11-15
22-18
27-16
20-23
35-20
14-27
33-16
30-20
25-18
23-20
29-19
32-23
28-25
18-18
23-21
20-16
14-26
25-14
23-16
26-19
29-16
14-23
177.5Avg total
94.6Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)89.280.2169.4+9.079%
Season at home (13)91.380.8172.1+10.592%
Season away (11)86.779.5166.3+7.264%
Last 10 (10)94.682.9177.5+11.780%
Last 5 (5)97.679.2176.8+18.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)80.083.8163.8-3.833%
vs Weaker (21)89.578.0167.5+11.590%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.2+6.2Q1: +5.8+5.8Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +0.4+0.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.2+6.2Q1: +5.8+5.8Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +0.4+0.4
PenarolAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
43-26
43
26
+17
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
W
55-30
55
30
+25
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#8
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Larre Borges
#13
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
78.4Avg total
42.8Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (22)43.336.079.3+7.459%-
Last 30 at home (11)46.233.079.2+13.282%-
Last 30 away (11)40.538.979.4+1.536%-
Last 10 (10)42.835.678.4+7.270%-
Last 5 (5)37.438.075.4-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)43.839.283.0+4.550%-
vs Weaker (18)43.235.278.4+8.061%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Larre Borges
#13
W
54-41
54
41
+13
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#2
L
42-54
42
54
-12
A16/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#3
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#12
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#5
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H02/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#9
W
63-36
63
36
+27
A09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#7
W
61-42
61
42
+19
H15/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#4
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#6
W
49-35
49
35
+14
H16/03
Liga Uruguaya
92.0Avg total
50.8Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.140.386.4+5.777%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.938.985.9+8.088%-
Last 30 away (14)45.141.987.0+3.164%-
Last 10 (10)50.841.292.0+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)52.637.890.4+14.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.639.882.3+2.878%-
vs Weaker (21)47.640.688.1+7.076%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 76.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.217.4
54.0%
51.0%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.39.4
31.0%
33.3%28.2
🏀 Free throws20.613.7
66.5%
71.7%13.7
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 91.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀45%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.218.2
58.3%
51.0%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.013.6
38.9%
33.3%40.8
🏀 Free throws17.213.9
80.8%
71.7%13.9
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
LWWLWWWWWW
Aguada
WWWWWWWLLW
#2
League position
#1
+11.9
Net rating
+16.6
104.8
Offensive rating
118.1
92.9
Defensive rating
101.5
50.4%
Effective FG%
58.3%
42.7%
Opp. effective FG%
48.2%
14.2%
Turnover %
15.5%
24.2%
Off. rebound %
23.9%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.0%
3-point %
38.9%
53.7%
Assist %
59.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence104.8 · 118.1Defence92.9 · 101.5Shooting50.4% · 58.3%3-point %31.0% · 38.9%Ball care14.2% · 15.5%Off. rebounds24.2% · 23.9%Free throws0.33 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Penarol   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Penarol wins
1
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
16/01/24Penarol v Aguada88-87
28/10/23Aguada v Penarol77-76
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/02/24AGoes62-77
07/02/24HNacional79-68
03/02/24ALarre Borges57-52
31/01/24HCordon65-75
28/01/24ATrouville91-83
25/01/24HGoes90-65
20/01/24HDefensor81-64
16/01/24HAguada88-87
13/01/24HMalvin82-58
10/01/24HHebraica y Macabi73-52
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/03/24HHebraica y Macabi92-74
05/03/24HDefensor82-77
15/02/24HBigua107-85
09/02/24AUrupan111-74
02/02/24HHebraica y Macabi96-86
30/01/24AMalvin87-77
28/01/24AGoes75-74
19/01/24HNacional105-111 OT
16/01/24APenarol87-88
13/01/24ALarre Borges104-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL82%
HomeWWWLW91%
AwayWWWWL73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %82%91%73%
Points / game81.983.480.5
Allowed / game70.167.073.3
Point differential+11.8+16.4+7.2
Avg total152.0150.4153.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%73%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %5%9%0%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW79%
HomeLWWWW92%
AwayWLWWW64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %79%92%64%
Points / game89.291.386.7
Allowed / game80.280.879.5
Point differential+9.0+10.5+7.2
Avg total169.4172.1166.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%54%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol2218482%81.970.1+11.8
2 Aguada2419579%89.280.2+9.0
3 Nacional2316770%86.981.9+5.0
4 Defensor2416867%80.977.5+3.4
5 Hebraica y Macabi2314961%84.280.4+3.8
6 Malvin25121348%81.880.6+1.2
7 Bigua25121348%84.483.6+0.8
8 Cordon24111346%72.574.5-2.0
9 Trouville2481633%80.285.1-5.0
10 Goes2581732%80.085.0-4.9
11 Urupan2681831%78.084.4-6.4
12 Larre Borges2532212%76.190.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol1319163381
Aguada1220153582
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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