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Aguada vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 86-80
22-20 30-19 14-25 20-16
Position#3
Record15-7
FormLWWWL
Points / game91.9
Allowed / game86.5
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#1
Record19-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game87.9
Allowed / game73.2
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Penarol
22 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA107
16 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA81
12 Jun 2026
AGUA78
PENA71
09 Mar 2026
AGUA86
PENA80
27 Jan 2026
AGUA91
PENA80
23 Jan 2026
AGUA v PENA
upcoming
14 Jan 2025
AGUA77
PENA69
14 Jun 2024
AGUA88
PENA74
06 Jun 2024
AGUA97
PENA90
12 Apr 2024
AGUA77
PENA82
27 Oct 2023
AGUA77
PENA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Cordon
#11
W
109-86
109
86
+23
120avg 84
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
90-76
90
76
+14
90avg 84
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
91-80
91
80
+11
87avg 84
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
L
74-86
74
86
-12
70avg 84
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
62-94
62
94
-32
49avg 84
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
L
54-101
54
101
-47
53avg 84
H05/02
Champions League Americas
Goes
#10
W
70-64
70
64
+6
63avg 84
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
90-76
90
76
+14
87avg 84
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
85-80
85
80
+5
77avg 84
H16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
92-98
92
98
-6
80avg 84
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
28-25
28-21
25-21
21-27
18-17
27-18
24-14
25-20
21-21
20-19
25-20
26-16
15-24
17-24
16-22
25-30
16-20
8-24
13-20
11-28
14-26
21-26
8-21
11-10
18-21
26-9
15-24
25-16
19-20
25-15
21-25
27-22
24-23
14-19
20-16
29-35
27-23
17-22
19-18
165.8Avg total
81.7Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)91.986.5178.5+5.468%
Season at home (11)95.582.9178.4+12.5100%
Season away (11)88.490.2178.5-1.836%
Last 10 (10)81.784.1165.8-2.460%
Last 5 (5)78.283.8162.0-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)79.589.5169.0-10.025%
vs Similar (6)98.293.5191.7+4.783%
vs Weaker (12)89.782.0171.7+7.767%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
89-67
89
67
+22
91avg 82
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
88-80
88
80
+8
88avg 82
H18/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
77-58
77
58
+19
83avg 82
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
79-69
79
69
+10
71avg 82
H14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
107-74
107
74
+33
114avg 82
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
80-91
80
91
-11
68avg 82
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
95-76
95
76
+19
98avg 82
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
84-81
84
81
+3
82avg 82
A04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
98-76
98
76
+22
94avg 82
H09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
100-83
100
83
+17
100avg 82
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-19
25-11
27-19
13-18
20-25
27-16
21-25
20-14
19-16
20-10
19-11
19-21
17-18
23-12
19-19
20-20
27-15
25-18
24-24
31-17
20-25
21-21
19-20
20-25
26-15
28-15
17-19
24-27
24-24
24-18
22-13
14-26
31-19
18-22
19-15
30-20
23-28
23-21
28-19
26-15
165.2Avg total
89.7Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)87.973.2161.1+14.686%
Season at home (11)92.175.0167.1+17.1100%
Season away (11)83.671.5155.1+12.273%
Last 10 (10)89.775.5165.2+14.290%
Last 5 (5)91.481.4172.8+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)80.079.0159.0+1.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)86.875.6162.4+11.179%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +7.0+7.0Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +1.4+1.4
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +7.0+7.0Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +1.4+1.4
AguadaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#11
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
L
25-54
25
54
-29
H05/02
Champions League Americas
Goes
#10
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
87.1Avg total
42.8Scored
44.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.044.990.9+1.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.944.191.0+2.967%-
Last 30 away (15)45.145.790.8-0.553%-
Last 10 (10)42.844.387.1-1.550%-
Last 5 (5)41.044.885.8-3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)42.646.188.7-3.542%-
vs Similar (6)49.744.093.7+5.783%-
vs Weaker (12)47.744.191.8+3.667%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
49-30
49
30
+19
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H18/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
54-30
54
30
+24
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
46-49
46
49
-3
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
83.3Avg total
46.5Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.338.482.7+5.967%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.938.182.0+5.871%-
Last 30 away (13)44.838.783.5+6.262%-
Last 10 (10)46.536.883.3+9.780%-
Last 5 (5)47.641.689.2+6.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.038.073.0-3.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)45.038.483.4+6.668%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.919.8
55.2%
53.3%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.59.5
33.3%
33.3%28.5
🏀 Free throws19.313.6
70.5%
70.9%13.6
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 89.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.922.8
55.7%
53.3%45.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.410.2
40.2%
33.3%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.413.3
65.2%
70.9%13.3
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LWWWLLLWWW
Penarol
WWWWLWWWWW
#3
League position
#1
-2.7
Net rating
+16.3
91.5
Offensive rating
102.5
94.2
Defensive rating
86.2
52.9%
Effective FG%
57.5%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
46.8%
17.3%
Turnover %
17.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.3%
3-point %
40.2%
65.9%
Assist %
65.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence91.5 · 102.5Defence94.2 · 86.2Shooting52.9% · 57.5%3-point %33.3% · 40.2%Ball care17.3% · 17.4%Off. rebounds- · 35.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Aguada   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Aguada wins
3
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
27/01/26Aguada v Penarol91-80
08/11/25Penarol v Aguada103-89
17/03/25Penarol v Aguada78-85
15/01/25Aguada v Penarol77-69
28/10/24Penarol v Aguada86-77 OT
18/06/24Penarol v Aguada71-88
15/06/24Aguada v Penarol88-74
11/06/24Penarol v Aguada95-78
07/06/24Aguada v Penarol97-90
03/06/24Penarol v Aguada65-66
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/02/26ADefensor92-98
16/02/26HHebraica y Macabi85-80
13/02/26HUnion Atletica90-76
10/02/26HGoes70-64
05/02/26HBoca Juniors54-101
04/02/26AMinas62-94
30/01/26AWelcome74-86
27/01/26HPenarol91-80
25/01/26HDefensor90-76
22/01/26ACordon109-86
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/02/26AUrunday100-83
09/02/26HBigua98-76
04/02/26ADefensor84-81
30/01/26HGoes95-76
27/01/26AAguada80-91
20/01/26HWelcome107-74
14/01/26HHebraica y Macabi79-69
10/01/26ACordon77-58
18/12/25HUnion Atletica88-80
16/12/25AMalvin89-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL68%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLWLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %68%100%36%
Points / game91.995.588.4
Allowed / game86.582.990.2
Point differential+5.4+12.5-1.8
Avg total178.5178.4178.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%64%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)100% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW86%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %86%100%73%
Points / game87.992.183.6
Allowed / game73.275.071.5
Point differential+14.6+17.1+12.2
Avg total161.1167.1155.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+77%91%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol2219386%87.973.2+14.6
2 Aguada2215768%91.986.5+5.4
3 Hebraica y Macabi2315865%84.882.0+2.8
4 Nacional2214864%92.383.1+9.2
5 Malvin2214864%81.880.9+0.9
6 Defensor23121152%86.585.3+1.2
7 Bigua23121152%88.388.2+0.1
8 Union Atletica23111248%82.382.5-0.2
9 Urunday2291341%88.986.3+2.6
10 Goes2261627%81.789.1-7.4
11 Cordon2341917%80.694.4-13.8
12 Welcome2341917%80.494.8-14.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2230142086
Penarol2019251680
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