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Aguada vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 23 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:15
Postponed
Position#3
Record10-5
FormLWLWW
Points / game95.3
Allowed / game89.6
Aguada
Uruguay
vs
Penarol
Uruguay
Position#1
Record15-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game70.8
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Penarol
22 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA107
16 Jun 2026
AGUA92
PENA81
12 Jun 2026
AGUA78
PENA71
09 Mar 2026
AGUA86
PENA80
27 Jan 2026
AGUA91
PENA80
23 Jan 2026
AGUA v PENA
upcoming
14 Jan 2025
AGUA77
PENA69
14 Jun 2024
AGUA88
PENA74
06 Jun 2024
AGUA97
PENA90
12 Apr 2024
AGUA77
PENA82
27 Oct 2023
AGUA77
PENA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
W
93-76
93
76
+17
90avg 86
A19/11
Liga Uruguaya
Boca Juniors
#2
L
71-88
71
88
-17
56avg 86
H11/12
Champions League Americas
Minas
#5
L
74-77
74
77
-3
64avg 86
H13/12
Champions League Americas
Urunday
#9
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 86
A17/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
98-94
98
94
+4
95avg 86
H21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
72-89
72
89
-17
59avg 86
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
95-87
95
87
+8
87avg 86
H11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
75-95
75
95
-20
no box
A16/01
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
W
88-84
88
84
+4
no box
A17/01
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#11
W
109-86
109
86
+23
120avg 86
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-28
28-14
17-17
25-17
21-24
13-19
14-19
23-26
19-24
19-16
20-14
16-23
27-26
30-23
28-28
19-22
28-24
25-23
20-14
25-33
20-32
15-17
17-12
20-28
29-23
26-25
23-23
17-16
21-24
15-28
19-21
20-22
25-21
21-13
23-29
19-21
28-19
28-25
28-21
25-21
175.4Avg total
87.9Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)95.389.6184.9+5.767%
Season at home (6)104.089.3193.3+14.7100%
Season away (9)89.689.8179.3-0.244%
Last 10 (10)87.987.5175.4+0.460%
Last 5 (5)87.888.2176.0-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)83.487.4170.9-4.036%
vs Similar (5)99.897.0196.8+2.880%
vs Weaker (11)94.183.8177.9+10.373%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
L
81-88
81
88
-7
73avg 82
A12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
86-69
86
69
+17
84avg 82
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
85-72
85
72
+13
83avg 82
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
85-58
85
58
+27
84avg 82
H04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
82-69
82
69
+13
76avg 82
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
89-67
89
67
+22
91avg 82
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
88-80
88
80
+8
88avg 82
H18/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
77-58
77
58
+19
83avg 82
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
79-69
79
69
+10
71avg 82
H14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
107-74
107
74
+33
114avg 82
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
26-16
18-21
17-32
26-15
14-25
27-17
19-12
22-27
21-20
20-18
22-7
15-21
28-14
22-10
20-13
21-16
19-16
17-22
25-15
24-19
25-11
27-19
13-18
20-25
27-16
21-25
20-14
19-16
20-10
19-11
19-21
17-18
23-12
19-19
20-20
27-15
25-18
24-24
31-17
156.3Avg total
85.9Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)86.870.8157.6+16.088%
Season at home (9)91.174.8165.9+16.3100%
Season away (8)82.066.4148.4+15.675%
Last 10 (10)85.970.4156.3+15.590%
Last 5 (5)88.069.6157.6+18.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)72.090.0162.0-18.00%
vs Similar (2)80.079.0159.0+1.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)85.374.4159.7+10.981%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +7.0+7.0Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: +3.7+3.7
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +7.0+7.0Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: +3.7+3.7
AguadaPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
W
51-42
51
42
+9
A19/11
Liga Uruguaya
Boca Juniors
#2
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H11/12
Champions League Americas
Minas
#5
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H13/12
Champions League Americas
Urunday
#9
W
57-49
57
49
+8
A17/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
55-48
55
48
+7
H11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A16/01
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A17/01
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#11
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
90.9Avg total
46.1Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.344.690.9+1.660%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.844.493.2+4.569%-
Last 30 away (17)44.344.889.1-0.553%-
Last 10 (10)46.144.890.9+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)45.645.491.0+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)43.444.988.3-1.443%-
vs Similar (5)50.845.696.4+5.280%-
vs Weaker (11)47.843.991.7+3.973%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A18/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H21/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
49-30
49
30
+19
A16/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H18/12
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A10/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
78.8Avg total
43.9Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.738.181.7+5.670%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.538.681.1+3.965%-
Last 30 away (13)45.237.482.6+7.877%-
Last 10 (10)43.934.978.8+9.080%-
Last 5 (5)45.432.077.4+13.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.040.083.0+3.0100%-
vs Similar (2)35.038.073.0-3.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)44.338.082.3+6.370%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 88.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.020.8
53.3%
53.3%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.710.0
37.5%
33.3%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.517.3
80.5%
70.9%17.3
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 79.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.520.7
55.2%
53.3%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.88.5
35.7%
33.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws19.212.1
63.0%
70.9%12.1
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
WWLWLWWLLW
Penarol
WWWWWWWWWL
#3
League position
#1
+6.2
Net rating
+22.5
111.0
Offensive rating
105.2
104.7
Defensive rating
82.7
54.5%
Effective FG%
54.6%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
44.1%
17.2%
Turnover %
17.8%
29.2%
Off. rebound %
37.2%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
37.5%
3-point %
35.7%
64.3%
Assist %
67.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence111.0 · 105.2Defence104.7 · 82.7Shooting54.5% · 54.6%3-point %37.5% · 35.7%Ball care17.2% · 17.8%Off. rebounds29.2% · 37.2%Free throws0.33 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Aguada   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Aguada wins
4
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
08/11/25Penarol v Aguada103-89
17/03/25Penarol v Aguada78-85
15/01/25Aguada v Penarol77-69
28/10/24Penarol v Aguada86-77 OT
18/06/24Penarol v Aguada71-88
15/06/24Aguada v Penarol88-74
11/06/24Penarol v Aguada95-78
07/06/24Aguada v Penarol97-90
03/06/24Penarol v Aguada65-66
13/04/24Aguada v Penarol77-82
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/26ACordon109-86
17/01/26ABoca Juniors88-84
16/01/26AMinas75-95
11/01/26HBigua95-87
08/01/26AMalvin72-89
21/12/25HNacional98-94
17/12/25AUrunday104-99
13/12/25HMinas74-77
11/12/25HBoca Juniors71-88
19/11/25AGoes93-76
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/26HWelcome107-74
14/01/26HHebraica y Macabi79-69
10/01/26ACordon77-58
18/12/25HUnion Atletica88-80
16/12/25AMalvin89-67
09/12/25HNacional82-69
04/12/25HUrunday85-58
21/11/25HDefensor85-72
18/11/25ABigua86-69
12/11/25AGoes81-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW67%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1569
Win %67%100%44%
Points / game95.3104.089.6
Allowed / game89.689.389.8
Point differential+5.7+14.7-0.2
Avg total184.9193.3179.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW88%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %88%100%75%
Points / game86.891.182.0
Allowed / game70.874.866.4
Point differential+16.0+16.3+15.6
Avg total157.6165.9148.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+82%89%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol1715288%86.870.8+16.0
2 Nacional1511473%93.383.7+9.7
3 Malvin1712571%82.580.8+1.6
4 Aguada1510567%95.389.6+5.7
5 Hebraica y Macabi1711665%83.480.2+3.2
6 Bigua169756%88.488.8-0.4
7 Defensor168850%86.585.7+0.8
8 Union Atletica178947%83.682.9+0.6
9 Urunday1771041%90.086.0+4.0
10 Goes1741324%83.292.1-8.9
11 Cordon1731418%81.993.4-11.5
12 Welcome171166%80.799.8-19.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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