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Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 05 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 88-77
Projected total 164.3
Postponed
Position#2
Record3-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game71.5
Al Sadd
Qatar
Vs
84%
16%
■ AL S 84%■ AL A 16%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.2/10
Around normal
7.0/10
🔥 Hot
Al Ahli
Qatar
Position#8
Record1-4
FormLWLLL
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game94.2
QatarQBL
Other2026-27
Meetings · Al Sadd v Al Ahli
05 Nov 2026
AL S v AL A
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
AL S65
AL A79
07 Dec 2024
AL S87
AL A78
28 Nov 2023
AL S63
AL A78
26 Apr 2023
AL S90
AL A87
28 Nov 2021
AL S78
AL A82
05 Jan 2021
AL S92
AL A75
15 Dec 2020
AL S93
AL A88
07 Dec 2019
AL S61
AL A102
26 Jan 2019
AL S83
AL A70
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Al Sadd host Al Ahli in the QBL on 5 November 2026, with the model rating Al Sadd as the clear favourite at 84% due to their 3-1 record, 87.5 points per game and only 71.5 points allowed, placing them second in the league, while Al Ahli struggle at 1-4, 84.0 points per game but surrender 94.2 points, sitting eighth; Al Sadd have won four of their last five, including a 90-69 victory over Al-Rayyan away, whereas Al Ahli have won only one of five, losing 91-101 to Qatar Sports away; the teams have met ten times with Al Sadd winning seven, most recently 80-73 on 30 March 2026; the model projects a 88-77 score, 164.3 total points, with Al Sadd covering the -17.5 line only 28% of the time and the over on the 168.5 line 39% of the time, and a 3% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Al Sadd win
83.6%fair 1.20
Best odds1.01
Implied89.5%
Edge-5.8pp
Al Ahli win
16.4%fair 6.11
Best odds11.25
Implied10.5%
Edge+5.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Al SaddQatarLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSadd
Date
Competition
Al Ahli
#4
L
65-79
65
79
-14
no box
H17/01
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
75-89
75
89
-14
61avg 82
H28/01
QBL
Al Ahli
#4
W
76-60
76
60
+16
no box
A31/01
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
78-95
78
95
-17
62avg 82
A23/03
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
74-76
74
76
-2
63avg 82
H28/03
QBL
Al Ahli
#4
W
80-73
80
73
+7
72avg 82
A30/03
QBL
Qatar Sports
#7
W
102-65
102
65
+37
54avg 82
H10/10
QBL
Al Khor
#9
W
102-79
102
79
+23
96avg 82
A17/10
QBL
Al-Rayyan
#3
W
90-69
90
69
+21
87avg 82
A27/10
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
56-73
56
73
-17
no box
H01/11
QBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-21
18-22
17-15
21-21
17-18
24-24
19-23
15-24
26-17
13-15
21-13
16-15
18-25
22-20
20-20
18-30
22-16
10-28
25-13
17-19
26-18
24-29
15-15
15-11
18-16
21-19
33-17
30-13
19-17
30-16
29-25
24-21
19-15
21-15
18-24
32-15
13-17
17-20
8-20
18-16
155.6Avg total
79.8Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)87.571.5159.0+16.075%
Season at home (2)79.069.0148.0+10.050%
Season away (2)96.074.0170.0+22.0100%
Last 10 (10)79.875.8155.6+4.050%
Last 5 (5)86.071.8157.8+14.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)77.991.0168.9-13.111%
vs Similar (7)82.179.9162.0+2.371%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)97.680.7178.3+16.993%
This opponent (Al Ahli) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Al AhliQatarLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAhli
Date
Competition
Al Muharraq
#2
L
73-90
73
90
-17
no box
A26/03
Premier League
Al-Rayyan
#2
L
88-93
88
93
-5
85avg 81
H28/03
QBL
Al Muharraq
#2
L
69-96
69
96
-27
no box
H29/03
Premier League
Al Sadd
#3
L
73-80
73
80
-7
65avg 81
H30/03
QBL
Al Muharraq
#2
L
63-102
63
102
-39
no box
A01/04
Premier League
Al Gharafa
#5
L
68-76
68
76
-8
54avg 81
H13/10
QBL
Al Khor
#9
W
75-74
75
74
+1
68avg 81
H22/10
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
101-114
101
114
-13
91avg 81
A27/10
QBL
Al-Rayyan
#3
L
85-106
85
106
-21
72avg 81
H31/10
QBL
Qatar Sports
#7
L
91-101
91
101
-10
no box
A02/11
QBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-24
26-24
20-19
18-23
19-20
22-22
25-25
22-26
17-24
16-18
19-29
17-25
18-26
29-24
15-15
11-15
21-27
15-28
9-32
18-15
10-23
19-17
24-17
15-19
10-18
24-20
20-20
21-16
24-26
13-28
28-28
36-32
17-25
27-27
15-32
26-22
20-32
26-22
26-26
19-21
171.8Avg total
78.6Scored
93.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)84.094.2178.2-10.220%
Season at home (3)76.085.3161.3-9.333%
Season away (2)96.0107.5203.5-11.50%
Last 10 (10)78.693.2171.8-14.610%
Last 5 (5)84.094.2178.2-10.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)74.684.6159.3-10.024%
vs Similar (5)71.075.6146.6-4.620%
vs Weaker (8)91.977.8169.6+14.1100%
This opponent (Al Sadd) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 164.5
Over 164.5
48.9%
Under 164.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 169.75 · main line
Over 169.75
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under 169.75
no forecast
@ 1.78
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 174.5
Over 174.5
26.3%
Under 174.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Al Sadd total 92
Over 92
32.7%
Under 92
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Al Sadd total 96 · main line
Over 96
19.4%
@ 1.74-30.1pp
Under 96
80.6%
@ 1.71+30.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Under
1xBet
1.71
Al Sadd total 100
Over 100
10.2%
Under 100
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Al Ahli total 68.5
Over 68.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
Under 68.5
no forecast
@ 2.36
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Under
1xBet
2.36
Al Ahli total 72.5 · main line
Over 72.5
65.0%
@ 1.82+13.8pp
Under 72.5
35.0%
@ 1.82-13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Al Ahli total 76.5
Over 76.5
49.6%
@ 2.26+11.0pp
Under 76.5
50.4%
@ 1.42-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.26
Under
1xBet
1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Al Sadd -20.5
AL S -20.5
20.3%
@ 1.60-36.4pp
AL A +20.5
79.7%
@ 2.10+36.4pp
Best 5 market prices
AL S
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.54
AL A
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Spread Al Sadd -17.5 · main line
AL S -17.5
28.4%
@ 1.83-21.7pp
AL A +17.5
71.6%
@ 2.26+21.7pp
Best 5 market prices
AL S
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.45
AL A
1xBet
2.26
Pinnacle
1.84
Spread Al Sadd -14.5
AL S -14.5
38.0%
@ 1.59-19.2pp
AL A +14.5
62.0%
@ 2.13+19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
AL S
Pinnacle
1.59
AL A
Pinnacle
2.13

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -8.0-8.0Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -1.1-1.1
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: -8.0-8.0Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -1.1-1.1
Al SaddAl Ahli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Al SaddLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Al Ahli
#4
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H17/01
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H28/01
QBL
Al Ahli
#4
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A31/01
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A23/03
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
32-44
32
44
-12
H28/03
QBL
Al Ahli
#4
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A30/03
QBL
Qatar Sports
#7
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H10/10
QBL
Al Khor
#9
W
49-33
49
33
+16
A17/10
QBL
Al-Rayyan
#3
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A27/10
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H01/11
QBL
77.5Avg total
38.7Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)42.840.883.7+2.063%50%
Last 30 at home (13)38.839.278.0-0.354%23%
Last 30 away (17)45.942.188.0+3.871%71%
Last 10 (10)38.738.877.5-0.150%20%
Last 5 (5)41.636.478.0+5.280%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)40.243.283.4-3.044%56%
vs Similar (7)41.141.482.6-0.357%57%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)45.439.084.4+6.479%43%
This opponent (Al Ahli) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Al AhliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Al Muharraq
#2
L
35-48
35
48
-13
A26/03
Premier League
Al-Rayyan
#2
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H28/03
QBL
Al Muharraq
#2
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H29/03
Premier League
Al Sadd
#3
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H30/03
QBL
Al Muharraq
#2
L
36-55
36
55
-19
A01/04
Premier League
Al Gharafa
#5
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H13/10
QBL
Al Khor
#9
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H22/10
QBL
Al Arabi
#1
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A27/10
QBL
Al-Rayyan
#3
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H31/10
QBL
Qatar Sports
#7
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A02/11
QBL
85.7Avg total
38.2Scored
47.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)38.542.080.6-3.530%40%
Last 30 at home (15)40.140.180.2+0.127%40%
Last 30 away (15)36.944.080.9-7.133%40%
Last 10 (10)38.247.585.7-9.30%50%
Last 5 (5)38.047.685.6-9.60%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)34.843.278.0-8.412%35%
vs Similar (5)38.440.879.2-2.420%20%
vs Weaker (8)46.540.486.9+6.175%62%
This opponent (Al Sadd) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
AL S win
no forecast
@ 1.04
AL A win
no forecast
@ 8.75
1st half Spread Al Sadd -14.5 · main line
AL S -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
AL A +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
AL S
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 25.00
AL A
no forecast
@ 9.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
AL S win + total 169.5
🔒 Pro
AL A win + total 169.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: AL S leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Al Ahli +2079.2%2.18
Pinnacle
2.18		----+37.5pp
Al Ahli +2181.6%2.03
Pinnacle
2.03		----+36.7pp
Al Sadd under 9783.3%1.74
1xBet
1.74		----+33.9pp
Al Sadd under 9885.7%1.63
1xBet
1.63		----+32.8pp
Al Ahli over 70.572.0%1.46
1xBet
1.46		----+12.6pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 27 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Al Saddtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Al Sadd: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.1 points a game
51%
35%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.319.4
53.4%
52.2%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.610.4
35.1%
31.0%31.2
🏀 Free throws17.614.6
83.0%
67.4%14.6
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Al Ahlitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Al Ahli: 82.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.1 points a game
51%
35%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.222.0
53.4%
52.2%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.69.3
33.7%
31.0%27.9
🏀 Free throws15.910.8
67.9%
67.4%10.8
They take 68.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Al Sadd
LWWWWLLWLL
Al Ahli
LLLWLLLLLL
#2
League position
#8
+3.8
Net rating
-4.9
100.0
Offensive rating
92.6
96.2
Defensive rating
97.5
53.1%
Effective FG%
52.3%
51.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
12.9%
Turnover %
14.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.1%
3-point %
33.7%
65.4%
Assist %
57.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence100.0 · 92.6Defence96.2 · 97.5Shooting53.1% · 52.3%3-point %35.1% · 33.7%Ball care12.9% · 14.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 10%
■ Al Sadd   ■ Al Ahli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Al Sadd wins
3
Al Ahli wins
DateGameScore
30/03/26Al Ahli v Al Sadd73-80
31/01/26Al Ahli v Al Sadd60-76
17/01/26Al Sadd v Al Ahli65-79
03/11/25Al Ahli v Al Sadd80-90
07/04/25Al Ahli v Al Sadd86-96
18/01/25Al Ahli v Al Sadd86-108
07/12/24Al Sadd v Al Ahli87-78
06/01/24Al Ahli v Al Sadd87-74
28/11/23Al Sadd v Al Ahli63-78
26/04/23Al Sadd v Al Ahli90-87
Al Saddlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HAl Arabi56-73
27/10/26AAl-Rayyan90-69
17/10/26AAl Khor102-79
10/10/26HQatar Sports102-65
30/03/26AAl Ahli80-73
28/03/26HAl Arabi74-76
23/03/26AAl Arabi78-95
31/01/26AAl Ahli76-60
28/01/26HAl Arabi75-89
17/01/26HAl Ahli65-79
Al Ahlilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26AQatar Sports91-101
31/10/26HAl-Rayyan85-106
27/10/26AAl Arabi101-114
22/10/26HAl Khor75-74
13/10/26HAl Gharafa68-76
01/04/26AAl Muharraq63-102
30/03/26HAl Sadd73-80
29/03/26HAl Muharraq69-96
28/03/26HAl-Rayyan88-93
26/03/26AAl Muharraq73-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Al Sadd
QBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWL50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game87.579.096.0
Allowed / game71.569.074.0
Point differential+16.0+10.0+22.0
Avg total159.0148.0170.0
Over 169.7525%0%50%
Win by 10+75%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Al Ahli
QBL 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL20%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %20%33%0%
Points / game84.076.096.0
Allowed / game94.285.3107.5
Point differential-10.2-9.3-11.5
Avg total178.2161.3203.5
Over 169.7560%33%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Al Arabi54180%94.681.0+13.6
2 Al Sadd43175%87.571.5+16.0
3 Al-Rayyan32167%86.385.7+0.7
4 Al Shamal53260%84.875.6+9.2
5 Al Gharafa53260%81.283.4-2.2
6 Al Wakrah42250%74.278.2-4.0
7 Qatar Sports42250%86.292.0-5.8
8 Al Ahli51420%84.094.2-10.2
9 Al Khor5050%72.087.8-15.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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