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Alba Berlin vs AEK Athens Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 88-93 (OT)
19-28 27-24 16-12 17-15 9-14
Position#11
Record9-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game79.3
vs
Position#1
Record10-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game74.9
EuropeChampions LeagueRound 6· Uber Arena
European cup2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alba Berlin winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Athens winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Alba BerlinLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBerlin
Date
Competition
Vechta
#7
W
84-82
84
82
+2
76avg 80
H08/02
BBL
Tofas
#27
W
69-60
69
60
+9
69avg 80
H10/02
Champions League
Bamberg
#2
W
98-92
98
92
+6
97avg 80
A15/02
BBL
Hamburg
#14
L
87-93
87
93
-6
72avg 80
H17/02
BBL
Oldenburg
#3
W
98-78
98
78
+20
105avg 80
H21/02
German Cup
Bamberg
#1
L
72-74
72
74
-2
66avg 80
A22/02
German Cup
Heidelberg
#18
W
87-54
87
54
+33
88avg 80
A06/03
BBL
Wurzburg
#5
W
71-68
71
68
+3
64avg 80
H08/03
BBL
AS Karditsas
#32
W
76-71
76
71
+5
74avg 80
A11/03
Champions League
Syntainics MBC
#13
L
68-99
68
99
-31
62avg 80
A15/03
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
25-26
16-16
22-20
11-18
22-15
18-14
18-13
32-26
25-26
17-25
24-15
14-23
17-22
22-32
34-16
29-18
17-20
25-23
27-17
22-15
15-21
21-16
14-22
18-12
25-16
25-11
19-15
16-21
21-22
22-15
12-10
18-19
17-21
19-18
22-13
25-28
19-24
13-26
11-21
158.1Avg total
81.0Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.579.3165.8+7.382%
Season at home (5)85.876.2162.0+9.680%
Season away (6)87.281.8169.0+5.383%
Last 10 (10)81.077.1158.1+3.970%
Last 5 (5)74.873.2148.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (5)86.284.0170.2+2.260%
vs Weaker (25)85.677.2162.8+8.480%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
AS Karditsas
#32
W
88-73
88
73
+15
84avg 79
H21/01
Champions League
Alba Berlin
#11
W
88-80
88
80
+8
82avg 79
H28/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
96-83
96
83
+13
97avg 79
H31/01
Basket League
Tofas
#27
W
93-90 OT
93
90
+3
91avg 79
A03/02
Champions League
Maroussi
#12
W
83-74
83
74
+9
82avg 79
H07/02
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
W
90-62
90
62
+28
90avg 79
A10/02
Champions League
PAOK
#3
W
88-71
88
71
+17
91avg 79
A14/02
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
102-85
102
85
+17
96avg 79
H07/03
Basket League
Tofas
#27
W
96-88
96
88
+8
91avg 79
H11/03
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#2
L
78-103
78
103
-25
68avg 79
A15/03
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
14-18
19-22
35-14
22-26
20-20
22-24
24-10
20-31
29-11
22-22
25-19
27-20
15-24
12-14
23-19
23-15
14-26
17-18
29-15
26-19
27-9
18-19
19-15
14-21
23-14
25-20
26-16
24-21
28-17
25-19
25-28
19-18
30-33
23-17
24-20
31-18
21-37
15-24
11-24
171.1Avg total
90.2Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.374.9161.2+11.491%
Season at home (6)92.878.3171.2+14.5100%
Season away (5)78.470.8149.2+7.680%
Last 10 (10)90.280.9171.1+9.390%
Last 5 (5)90.881.8172.6+9.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)78.0101.3179.3-23.30%
vs Similar ◀ (5)80.076.8156.8+3.260%
vs Weaker (22)87.574.9162.3+12.695%
This opponent (Alba Berlin) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +6.1+6.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: +6.1+6.1
Alba BerlinAEK Athens
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Alba BerlinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vechta
#7
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H08/02
BBL
Tofas
#27
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H10/02
Champions League
Bamberg
#2
W
57-52
57
52
+5
A15/02
BBL
Hamburg
#14
L
31-45
31
45
-14
H17/02
BBL
Oldenburg
#3
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H21/02
German Cup
Bamberg
#1
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A22/02
German Cup
Heidelberg
#18
W
43-28
43
28
+15
A06/03
BBL
Wurzburg
#5
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H08/03
BBL
AS Karditsas
#32
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A11/03
Champions League
Syntainics MBC
#13
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A15/03
BBL
82.2Avg total
40.9Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.940.482.3+1.547%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.038.879.8+2.247%-
Last 30 away (15)42.942.084.9+0.947%-
Last 10 (10)40.941.382.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)39.239.879.0-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (5)46.843.490.2+3.480%-
vs Weaker (25)41.039.880.8+1.240%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AS Karditsas
#32
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H21/01
Champions League
Alba Berlin
#11
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H28/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H31/01
Basket League
Tofas
#27
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A03/02
Champions League
Maroussi
#12
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H07/02
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
W
53-28
53
28
+25
A10/02
Champions League
PAOK
#3
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A14/02
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H07/03
Basket League
Tofas
#27
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H11/03
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#2
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A15/03
Basket League
86.4Avg total
44.7Scored
41.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.939.982.8+3.067%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.940.782.6+1.160%-
Last 30 away (15)43.939.183.1+4.873%-
Last 10 (10)44.741.786.4+3.040%-
Last 5 (5)48.641.490.0+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)38.757.095.7-18.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)39.238.277.4+1.060%-
vs Weaker (22)44.338.082.3+6.377%-
This opponent (Alba Berlin) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alba Berlintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alba Berlin: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.2 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.918.1
51.9%
52.4%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.19.8
32.6%
33.8%29.4
🏀 Free throws20.315.4
75.9%
74.1%15.4
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 89.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.2 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.621.1
54.7%
52.4%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.610.0
42.4%
33.8%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.816.8
77.1%
74.1%16.8
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alba Berlin
LWWWLWLWWW
AEK Athens
LWWWWWWWWW
#11
League position
#1
+4.4
Net rating
+10.0
92.4
Offensive rating
106.9
87.9
Defensive rating
96.9
50.5%
Effective FG%
58.0%
50.1%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
18.2%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.6%
3-point %
42.4%
72.4%
Assist %
66.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence92.4 · 106.9Defence87.9 · 96.9Shooting50.5% · 58.0%3-point %32.6% · 42.4%Ball care18.2% · 14.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)70% · 90%
■ Alba Berlin   ■ AEK Athens
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Alba Berlin wins
1
AEK Athens wins
DateGameScore
28/01/26AEK Athens v Alba Berlin88-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/26ASyntainics MBC68-99
11/03/26AAS Karditsas76-71
08/03/26HWurzburg71-68
06/03/26AHeidelberg87-54
22/02/26ABamberg72-74
21/02/26HOldenburg98-78
17/02/26HHamburg87-93
15/02/26ABamberg98-92
10/02/26HTofas69-60
08/02/26HVechta84-82
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/26APanathinaikos78-103
11/03/26HTofas96-88
07/03/26HPromitheas102-85
14/02/26APAOK88-71
10/02/26AAS Karditsas90-62
07/02/26HMaroussi83-74
03/02/26ATofas93-90 OT
31/01/26HKolossos Rhodes96-83
28/01/26HAlba Berlin88-80
21/01/26HAS Karditsas88-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alba Berlin
Champions League 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW82%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayWWWLW83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %82%80%83%
Points / game86.585.887.2
Allowed / game79.376.281.8
Point differential+7.3+9.6+5.3
Avg total165.8162.0169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%40%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEK Athens
Champions League 2025
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW91%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %91%100%80%
Points / game86.392.878.4
Allowed / game74.978.370.8
Point differential+11.4+14.5+7.6
Avg total161.2171.2149.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%67%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %18%17%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 AEK Athens1110191%86.374.9+11.4
2 Unicaja1210283%89.974.8+15.2
3 Joventut Badalona1210283%86.377.8+8.5
4 Alba Berlin119282%86.579.3+7.3
5 Gran Canaria129375%81.773.1+8.6
6 Galatasaray129375%87.881.2+6.6
7 Chalon/Saone1712571%88.685.5+3.1
8 Rytas128467%93.786.8+6.8
9 Tenerife128467%83.476.8+6.7
10 Murcia32167%89.783.7+6.0
11 Bakken Bears32167%88.086.0+2.0
12 Antwerp Giants32167%72.775.3-2.7
13 Levice127558%79.279.8-0.6
14 Le Mans148657%87.681.1+6.6
15 Wurzburg158753%81.778.3+3.4
16 Reggiana21150%88.584.0+4.5
17 Den Bosch21150%78.575.0+3.5
18 Juventus21150%87.085.0+2.0
19 BC Kalev/Cramo21150%81.082.5-1.5
20 PAOK21150%76.079.5-3.5
21 FC Porto21150%81.089.5-8.5
22 Mersin SK84450%80.088.6-8.6
23 Cholet94544%89.087.0+2.0
24 Szolnoki Olaj94544%76.476.4+0.0
25 Nymburk146843%80.483.1-2.6
26 Trapani73443%75.179.1-4.0
27 Trieste156940%81.583.6-2.1
28 Tofas156940%84.386.8-2.5
29 Spartak Subotica83538%78.279.4-1.1
30 Heidelberg83538%79.582.1-2.6
31 Promitheas83538%80.186.5-6.4
32 AS Karditsas145936%78.485.5-7.1
33 Legia62433%78.077.8+0.2
34 Bnei Herzliya62433%84.890.5-5.7
35 Bursaspor93633%76.883.0-6.2
36 Hapoel Holon134931%83.186.1-3.0
37 Sabah Baku61517%81.090.7-9.7
38 VEF Riga61517%68.580.0-11.5
39 Igokea61517%75.387.0-11.7
40 Benfica61517%71.592.2-20.7
41 Kutaisi1010%81.084.0-3.0
42 Szombathely1010%79.083.0-4.0
43 Basketball Braunschweig1010%74.081.0-7.0
44 CSM Oradea1010%71.079.0-8.0
45 Rilski Sportist1010%84.093.0-9.0
46 Oostende6060%81.092.7-11.7
47 Pelister1010%87.099.0-12.0
48 Studentski Centar1010%67.079.0-12.0
49 Trepca1010%68.080.0-12.0
50 Karhu Basket1010%89.0103.0-14.0
51 Lublin1010%84.0100.0-16.0
52 AEK Larnaca1010%69.090.0-21.0
53 Fribourg Olympic1010%80.0107.0-27.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Alba Berlin19271617988
AEK Athens282412151493
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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