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Appalachian State vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 109-104 (OT)
46-47 44-43 19-14
Position#14
Record19-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game65.3
vs
Position#107
Record15-8
FormWWWLW
Points / game79.7
Allowed / game76.0
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Appalachian State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Appalachian StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#98
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A06/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#330
W
70-45
70
45
+25
A12/01
NCAA
James Madison
#6
W
59-55
59
55
+4
A13/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#252
W
76-68
76
68
+8
H17/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#330
W
88-59
88
59
+29
H20/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#341
W
84-74
84
74
+10
H25/01
NCAA
James Madison
#6
W
82-76
82
76
+6
H27/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#252
W
81-71
81
71
+10
A02/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#341
W
85-84 OT
85
84
+1
A03/02
NCAA
Texas State
#214
L
56-63
56
63
-7
A08/02
NCAA
1H
2H
26-23
36-43
32-16
38-29
30-25
29-30
39-30
37-38
40-30
48-29
48-43
36-31
36-28
46-48
30-30
51-41
35-41
39-33
26-29
30-34
140.4Avg total
74.3Scored
66.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)77.365.3142.7+12.079%
Season at home (12)79.861.2140.9+18.692%
Season away (12)74.969.5144.4+5.467%
Last 10 (10)74.366.1140.4+8.280%
Last 5 (5)77.673.6151.2+4.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)67.566.5134.0+1.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)76.767.5144.1+9.276%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (Ohio)
#228
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H06/01
NCAA
Kent State
#199
W
89-75
89
75
+14
A10/01
NCAA
Ball State
#226
W
77-72
77
72
+5
H14/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#362
W
77-66
77
66
+11
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
L
62-65
62
65
-3
A20/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
W
89-73
89
73
+16
A24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
W
88-72
88
72
+16
H27/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
88-63
88
63
+25
H31/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
70-77
70
77
-7
A03/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
91-87
91
87
+4
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
29-40
39-24
43-29
46-46
40-33
37-39
33-33
44-33
23-30
39-35
38-38
51-35
31-31
57-41
48-27
40-36
36-47
34-30
42-37
49-50
151.3Avg total
79.9Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)79.776.0155.7+3.665%
Season at home (13)80.575.5156.0+4.969%
Season away (10)78.676.7155.3+1.960%
Last 10 (10)79.971.4151.3+8.580%
Last 5 (5)85.274.4159.6+10.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)72.282.8155.0-10.50%
vs Similar (13)79.576.5155.9+3.077%
vs Weaker (12)87.373.7161.0+13.783%
This opponent (Appalachian State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +6.7+6.7
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +6.7+6.7
Appalachian StateToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Appalachian StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy
#98
W
26-23
26
23
+3
A06/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#330
W
32-16
32
16
+16
A12/01
NCAA
James Madison
#6
W
30-25
30
25
+5
A13/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#252
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H17/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#330
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H20/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#341
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H25/01
NCAA
James Madison
#6
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H27/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#252
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A02/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#341
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A03/02
NCAA
Texas State
#214
L
26-29
26
29
-3
A08/02
NCAA
63.7Avg total
34.2Scored
29.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.031.567.5+4.567%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.929.968.7+9.086%-
Last 30 away (16)33.532.966.4+0.650%-
Last 10 (10)34.229.563.7+4.770%-
Last 5 (5)35.034.269.2+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)31.230.561.8+0.862%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)36.732.469.1+4.367%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H06/01
NCAA
Kent State
#199
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A10/01
NCAA
Ball State
#226
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/01
NCAA
Buffalo
#362
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A20/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H27/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
48-27
48
27
+21
H31/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A03/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A07/02
NCAA
70.8Avg total
36.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.036.874.8+1.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.636.675.2+2.041%-
Last 30 away (13)37.337.174.4+0.254%-
Last 10 (10)36.334.570.8+1.840%-
Last 5 (5)39.036.075.0+3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)32.040.872.8-8.80%-
vs Similar (13)35.836.872.7-1.038%-
vs Weaker (12)42.135.277.2+6.967%-
This opponent (Appalachian State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Appalachian State wins
0
Toledo wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/24ATexas State56-63
03/02/24AGeorgia Southern85-84 OT
02/02/24AGeorgia State81-71
27/01/24HJames Madison82-76
25/01/24HGeorgia Southern84-74
20/01/24HCoastal Carolina88-59
17/01/24HGeorgia State76-68
13/01/24AJames Madison59-55
12/01/24ACoastal Carolina70-45
06/01/24ATroy62-66
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/24AEastern Michigan91-87
03/02/24AAkron70-77
31/01/24HWestern Michigan88-63
27/01/24HBowling Green88-72
24/01/24ANorthern Illinois89-73
20/01/24ACentral Michigan62-65
17/01/24HBuffalo77-66
14/01/24HBall State77-72
10/01/24AKent State89-75
06/01/24HMiami (Ohio)68-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Appalachian State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL79%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayWWWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %79%92%67%
Points / game77.379.874.9
Allowed / game65.361.269.5
Point differential+12.0+18.6+5.4
Avg total142.7140.9144.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%67%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %12%0%25%
Toledo
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW65%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayWLWLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %65%69%60%
Points / game79.780.578.6
Allowed / game76.075.576.7
Point differential+3.6+4.9+1.9
Avg total155.7156.0155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%31%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won78% (9)80% (5)75% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 James Madison2421388%85.269.2+16.0
2 Appalachian State2419579%77.365.3+12.0
3 Troy2416867%80.169.5+10.6
4 Louisiana Lafayette2415962%77.371.2+6.1
5 Southern Miss24131154%69.970.8-0.9
6 Marshall25121348%75.776.4-0.8
7 South Alabama24111346%73.477.1-3.7
8 Georgia State23101343%78.375.2+3.1
9 Arkansas State24101442%78.878.5+0.2
10 Texas State24101442%68.370.1-1.8
11 Louisiana Monroe2281436%70.574.6-4.2
12 Coastal Carolina2361726%74.779.9-5.2
13 Old Dominion2461825%71.877.3-5.6
14 Georgia Southern2451921%70.579.3-8.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron2318578%75.964.3+11.6
2 Bowling Green2316770%77.272.0+5.2
3 Toledo2315865%79.776.0+3.6
4 UMass2214864%80.372.0+8.2
5 Ohio23131057%78.471.2+7.3
6 Central Michigan23131057%67.171.6-4.4
7 Ball State23121152%75.471.0+4.4
8 Kent State23121152%76.972.7+4.1
9 Miami (Ohio)22111150%73.371.0+2.4
10 Eastern Michigan2391439%67.275.3-8.1
11 Northern Illinois2281436%76.078.7-2.7
12 Western Michigan2381535%72.375.0-2.8
13 Buffalo222209%66.880.4-13.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Appalachian State464419109
Toledo474314104
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