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Toledo vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 17 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 77-66
33-33 44-33
Position#107
Record10-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game79.2
Allowed / game77.9
Toledo 🏆
USA
vs
Position#362
Record2-14
FormLWLLL
Points / game67.8
Allowed / game79.2
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Toledo v Buffalo
08 Jan 2027
TOLE v BUFF
upcoming
06 Mar 2026
TOLE98
BUFF78
04 Feb 2025
TOLE87
BUFF74
16 Jan 2024
TOLE77
BUFF66
25 Feb 2023
TOLE101
BUFF71
25 Jan 2022
TOLE86
BUFF75
14 Feb 2020
TOLE67
BUFF83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Buffalo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Mason
#106
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H03/12
NCAA
Oakland
#76
W
69-68
69
68
+1
A07/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
84-80
84
80
+4
H09/12
NCAA
Marshall
#289
W
88-87
88
87
+1
H14/12
NCAA
Vermont
#16
L
60-86
60
86
-26
H21/12
NCAA
West Virginia
#338
L
81-91
81
91
-10
A23/12
NCAA
Ohio
#120
W
86-77
86
77
+9
A03/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H06/01
NCAA
Kent State
#199
W
89-75
89
75
+14
A10/01
NCAA
Ball State
#226
W
77-72
77
72
+5
H14/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-40
42-46
32-36
37-32
36-40
48-40
48-39
40-48
24-42
36-44
33-45
48-46
38-32
48-45
29-40
39-24
43-29
46-46
40-33
37-39
156.5Avg total
77.9Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)79.277.9157.1+1.362%
Season at home (10)79.378.1157.4+1.260%
Season away (6)79.077.5156.5+1.567%
Last 10 (10)77.978.6156.5-0.770%
Last 5 (5)80.275.8156.0+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)72.282.8155.0-10.50%
vs Similar (13)80.275.5155.8+4.785%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)88.073.9161.9+14.192%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison
#6
L
66-81
66
81
-15
A30/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#124
L
65-80
65
80
-15
H02/12
NCAA
Butler
#164
L
59-72
59
72
-13
A06/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#84
L
65-82
65
82
-17
H09/12
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#40
L
66-72
66
72
-6
A22/12
NCAA
Niagara
#206
L
63-69
63
69
-6
H30/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
W
76-64
76
64
+12
A03/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
L
77-82
77
82
-5
H06/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
65-86
65
86
-21
H10/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
59-76
59
76
-17
A13/01
NCAA
1H
2H
24-37
42-44
21-39
44-41
26-35
33-37
23-44
42-38
32-42
34-30
30-20
33-49
36-18
40-46
32-34
45-48
36-38
29-48
30-34
29-42
142.5Avg total
66.1Scored
76.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)67.879.2147.0-11.512%
Season at home (9)70.482.9153.3-12.411%
Season away (7)64.374.6138.9-10.314%
Last 10 (10)66.176.4142.5-10.310%
Last 5 (5)68.075.4143.4-7.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)68.180.7148.8-12.58%
vs Similar (2)76.569.0145.5+7.5100%
vs Weaker (3)83.369.3152.7+14.0100%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: -5.1-5.12nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -5.2-5.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: -5.1-5.12nd half2nd half: +1.1+1.12nd half: -5.2-5.2
ToledoBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Mason
#106
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H03/12
NCAA
Oakland
#76
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A07/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H09/12
NCAA
Marshall
#289
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H14/12
NCAA
Vermont
#16
L
24-42
24
42
-18
H21/12
NCAA
West Virginia
#338
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A23/12
NCAA
Ohio
#120
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A03/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H06/01
NCAA
Kent State
#199
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A10/01
NCAA
Ball State
#226
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/01
NCAA
73.4Avg total
35.8Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.935.574.4+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.835.775.5+4.153%-
Last 30 away (13)37.635.272.8+2.469%-
Last 10 (10)35.837.673.4-1.840%-
Last 5 (5)36.635.872.4+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.040.872.8-8.80%-
vs Similar (13)36.434.871.2+1.554%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)43.634.177.7+9.583%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison
#6
L
24-37
24
37
-13
A30/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#124
L
21-39
21
39
-18
H02/12
NCAA
Butler
#164
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A06/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#84
L
23-44
23
44
-21
H09/12
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#40
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A22/12
NCAA
Niagara
#206
W
30-20
30
20
+10
H30/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
W
36-18
36
18
+18
A03/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H06/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H10/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A13/01
NCAA
63.1Avg total
29.0Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.437.670.1-5.227%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.338.772.0-5.327%-
Last 30 away (15)31.536.668.1-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)29.034.163.1-5.120%-
Last 5 (5)32.828.861.6+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)30.538.969.4-8.417%-
vs Similar (2)35.532.067.5+3.550%-
vs Weaker (3)39.729.769.3+10.067%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Toledo wins
1
Buffalo wins
DateGameScore
25/02/23Toledo v Buffalo101-71
21/01/23Buffalo v Toledo77-86
02/03/22Buffalo v Toledo76-92
26/01/22Toledo v Buffalo86-75
20/02/21Buffalo v Toledo70-80
14/02/20Toledo v Buffalo67-83
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/24HBall State77-72
10/01/24AKent State89-75
06/01/24HMiami (Ohio)68-64
03/01/24AOhio86-77
23/12/23AWest Virginia81-91
21/12/23HVermont60-86
14/12/23HMarshall88-87
09/12/23HNorthern Iowa84-80
07/12/23AOakland69-68
03/12/23HGeorge Mason77-86
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/24AAkron59-76
10/01/24HMiami (Ohio)65-86
06/01/24HWestern Michigan77-82
03/01/24ACentral Michigan76-64
30/12/23HNiagara63-69
22/12/23ARichmond Spiders66-72
09/12/23HWestern Kentucky65-82
06/12/23AButler59-72
02/12/23HSt. Bonaventure65-80
30/11/23AJames Madison66-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW62%
HomeWWLWW60%
AwayLWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16106
Win %62%60%67%
Points / game79.279.379.0
Allowed / game77.978.177.5
Point differential+1.3+1.2+1.5
Avg total157.1157.4156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%10%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)80% (5)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Buffalo
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL12%
HomeLLLLL11%
AwayLLLWL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %12%11%14%
Points / game67.870.464.3
Allowed / game79.282.974.6
Point differential-11.5-12.4-10.3
Avg total147.0153.3138.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%0%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron1612475%77.165.6+11.5
2 Bowling Green1612475%75.869.0+6.8
3 UMass1611569%81.771.5+10.2
4 Toledo1610662%79.277.9+1.3
5 Miami (Ohio)158753%75.370.5+4.8
6 Kent State168850%77.973.8+4.1
7 Ball State168850%73.970.1+3.8
8 Central Michigan168850%67.373.8-6.4
9 Eastern Michigan168850%67.974.3-6.4
10 Ohio167944%79.072.5+6.5
11 Western Michigan167944%74.976.2-1.3
12 Northern Illinois1661038%77.479.4-2.0
13 Buffalo1621412%67.879.2-11.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo334477
Buffalo333366
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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