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Atenas vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 72-90
Projected total 161.5
Final 83-105
26-27 15-28 22-20 20-30
Position#12
Record1-5
FormWLLLW
Points / game71.0
Allowed / game88.7
Atenas
Uruguay
Vs
94%
■ ATEN 6%■ PENA 94%
Pythia win probability
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
Position#1
Record5-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game89.2
Allowed / game72.0
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Club Atletico Atenas
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Atenas will host Penarol on 13 November 2026 in the Liga Uruguaya, and the Pythia model designates Penarol as the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win largely because of their undefeated 5-0 record, 89.2 points scored per game and only 72.0 points allowed per game, placing them first in the league. Atenas, in contrast, have struggled, posting a 1-5 record with 71.0 points per game and 88.7 points allowed per game, and are 11th in the standings; their two home games have yielded a 0-2 record, 67.0 points per game and 87.0 points allowed, and their last five games were 2-3. Penarol's road form is flawless, 3-0, with 93.3 points per game and 76.3 points allowed, and they have won all five recent matches, including 88-74 away on 2 November. Atenas' recent results include a 91-78 home win over San Lorenzo, a 71-99 loss to Goes away, and a 76-79 home loss to Gimnasia. The model projects a 72-90 score, 161.5 total points, a 6% chance for Atenas to win, a 94% chance for Penarol, and a 1% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atenas winLost
5.8%fair 17.25
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winWon
94.2%fair 1.06
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AtenasUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAtenas
Date
Competition
Malvin
#7
L
66-77
66
77
-11
55avg 70
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#8
L
77-90
77
90
-13
61avg 70
H22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Lanus
#12
W
80-69
80
69
+11
76avg 70
H24/10
Liga A
Union Atletica
#11
W
82-73
82
73
+9
68avg 70
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#6
L
57-84
57
84
-27
42avg 70
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Racing de Chivilcoy
#13
W
95-94 OT
95
94
+1
no box
H02/11
Liga A
Larranaga
#10
L
73-109
73
109
-36
no box
A02/11
Liga Uruguaya
Gimnasia
#3
L
76-79
76
79
-3
no box
H04/11
Liga A
Goes
#2
L
71-99
71
99
-28
no box
A11/11
Liga Uruguaya
San Lorenzo
#17
W
81-55
81
55
+26
no box
H13/11
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-20
19-24
19-15
20-18
23-24
18-25
11-24
25-17
25-20
8-19
27-16
20-14
28-17
25-20
19-12
10-24
12-27
19-21
9-11
17-25
22-22
20-25
21-14
25-27
15-24
19-32
23-27
16-26
15-21
19-17
19-16
23-25
7-33
20-28
24-19
20-19
24-17
28-9
14-12
15-17
158.7Avg total
75.8Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)71.088.7159.7-17.717%
Season at home (2)67.087.0154.0-20.00%
Season away (4)73.089.5162.5-16.525%
Last 10 (10)75.882.9158.7-7.140%
Last 5 (5)79.287.2166.4-8.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)78.087.7165.7-9.722%
vs Similar (3)76.373.3149.7+3.067%
vs Weaker (9)82.479.7162.1+2.867%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Aguada
#3
W
89-84
89
84
+5
80avg 85
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
71-78
71
78
-7
61avg 85
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
81-92
81
92
-11
71avg 85
A17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
80-71
80
71
+9
71avg 85
H20/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
107-92
107
92
+15
102avg 85
A23/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
91-79
91
79
+12
68avg 85
A22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#7
W
101-76
101
76
+25
100avg 85
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#11
W
88-74
88
74
+14
no box
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
84-65
84
65
+19
no box
H06/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#6
W
82-66
82
66
+16
no box
H12/11
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
20-26
26-17
15-18
15-19
18-27
19-14
19-18
13-21
32-19
19-25
17-27
25-26
20-23
12-14
23-8
31-21
23-32
32-16
21-23
24-26
24-24
23-7
20-22
30-25
28-19
30-16
13-16
18-16
22-24
35-17
13-17
26-15
19-16
18-23
21-11
25-20
26-18
7-14
24-14
165.1Avg total
87.4Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)89.272.0161.2+17.2100%
Season at home (2)83.065.5148.5+17.5100%
Season away (3)93.376.3169.7+17.0100%
Last 10 (10)87.477.7165.1+9.780%
Last 5 (5)89.272.0161.2+17.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)89.676.9166.5+12.783%
This opponent (Atenas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Over 161.5
Over 161.5
49.8%
Under 161.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166.5Actual: Over 166.5
Over 166.5
37.6%
Under 166.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171.5Actual: Over 171.5
Over 171.5
26.7%
Under 171.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Atenas total 81.5Actual: Atenas over 81.5
Over 81.5
16.1%
Under 81.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atenas total 85.5Actual: Atenas under 85.5
Over 85.5
8.5%
Under 85.5
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atenas total 89.5Actual: Atenas under 89.5
Over 89.5
4.1%
Under 89.5
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol total 77Actual: Penarol over 77
Over 77
91.1%
Under 77
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol total 81Actual: Penarol over 81
Over 81
82.6%
Under 81
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol total 85Actual: Penarol over 85
Over 85
69.9%
Under 85
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Atenas -3Actual: Penarol +3
ATEN -3
3.7%
PENA +3
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
ATEN
No market prices yet.
PENA
No market prices yet.
Spread Atenas 0Actual: Penarol 0
ATEN 0
5.8%
PENA 0
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
ATEN
No market prices yet.
PENA
No market prices yet.
Spread Atenas +3Actual: Penarol -3
ATEN +3
8.2%
PENA -3
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
ATEN
No market prices yet.
PENA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +5.8+5.8Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.2+1.2
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +5.8+5.8Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.2+1.2
AtenasPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AtenasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#7
L
27-44
27
44
-17
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#8
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Lanus
#12
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H24/10
Liga A
Union Atletica
#11
W
53-37
53
37
+16
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#6
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Racing de Chivilcoy
#13
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H02/11
Liga A
Larranaga
#10
L
34-56
34
56
-22
A02/11
Liga Uruguaya
Gimnasia
#3
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H04/11
Liga A
Goes
#2
L
27-61
27
61
-34
A11/11
Liga Uruguaya
San Lorenzo
#17
W
52-26
52
26
+26
H13/11
Liga A
81.9Avg total
37.4Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.842.682.4-2.837%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.541.480.9-1.927%-
Last 30 away (15)40.143.883.9-3.747%-
Last 10 (10)37.444.581.9-7.120%-
Last 5 (5)37.845.683.4-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)39.744.884.5-5.233%-
vs Similar (3)36.036.372.3-0.333%-
vs Weaker (9)41.240.281.4+1.044%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aguada
#3
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H10/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A13/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A17/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H20/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A23/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#7
W
58-44
58
44
+14
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#11
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H06/11
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#6
W
51-38
51
38
+13
H12/11
Liga Uruguaya
90.7Avg total
46.7Scored
44.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.741.087.7+5.670%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.839.387.1+8.573%-
Last 30 away (15)45.542.888.3+2.767%-
Last 10 (10)46.744.090.7+2.750%-
Last 5 (5)48.440.689.0+7.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)46.741.087.7+5.670%-
This opponent (Atenas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atenastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atenas: 74.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.220.6
52.6%
50.3%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.87.7
29.8%
32.1%23.1
🏀 Free throws14.810.4
70.3%
70.5%10.4
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 89.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.224.6
56.9%
50.3%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.0
32.4%
32.1%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.113.0
64.7%
70.5%13.0
They take 71.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atenas
WLLLWLWWLL
Penarol
WWWWWWWLLW
#12
League position
#1
-5.8
Net rating
+12.9
94.9
Offensive rating
100.0
100.8
Defensive rating
87.1
49.5%
Effective FG%
53.7%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
6.3%
Turnover %
13.6%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.28
29.8%
3-point %
32.4%
43.8%
Assist %
61.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence94.9 · 100.0Defence100.8 · 87.1Shooting49.5% · 53.7%3-point %29.8% · 32.4%Ball care6.3% · 13.6%Free throws0.23 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 80%
■ Atenas   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Atenas wins
0
Penarol wins
No previous meetings.
Atenaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HSan Lorenzo81-55
11/11/26AGoes71-99
04/11/26HGimnasia76-79
02/11/26ALarranaga73-109
02/11/26HRacing de Chivilcoy95-94 OT
31/10/26HAguada57-84
26/10/26AUnion Atletica82-73
24/10/26HLanus80-69
22/10/26HNacional77-90
20/10/26AMalvin66-77
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HAguada82-66
06/11/26HDefensor84-65
03/11/26AUnion Atletica88-74
29/10/26AMalvin101-76
22/10/26AUrunday91-79
23/06/26AAguada107-92
20/06/26HAguada80-71
17/06/26AAguada81-92
13/06/26AAguada71-78
10/06/26HAguada89-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atenas
Liga Uruguaya 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL17%
HomeLL0%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %17%0%25%
Points / game71.067.073.0
Allowed / game88.787.089.5
Point differential-17.7-20.0-16.5
Avg total159.7154.0162.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.283.093.3
Allowed / game72.065.576.3
Point differential+17.2+17.5+17.0
Avg total161.2148.5169.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol550100%89.272.0+17.2
2 Bigua76186%93.084.9+8.1
3 Goes65183%93.583.7+9.8
4 Hebraica y Macabi64267%84.280.7+3.5
5 Defensor53260%80.078.6+1.4
6 Malvin63350%76.579.7-3.2
7 Aguada73443%76.477.6-1.1
8 Larranaga62433%84.786.2-1.5
9 Nacional62433%87.090.7-3.7
10 Urunday72529%77.979.7-1.9
11 Atenas61517%71.088.7-17.7
12 Union Atletica71614%78.385.9-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Atenas2615222083
Penarol27282030105
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