Penarol vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Penarol faces Aguada in the Liga Uruguaya on 11 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Penarol as the clear favourite at 84% because of their flawless 4-0 season record, 91.0 points per game and 73.5 points allowed per game, placing them first in the league. Aguada, meanwhile, sits fifth with a 3-2 record, 78.4 points per game and 75.8 points allowed per game. Penarol has won every game in the competition, including a 84-65 home victory over Defensor on 5 November and a 101-76 away win over Malvin on 28 October, while Aguada has struggled, losing to Goes 84-87 at home on 4 November and falling 75-91 to Larranaga on 27 October. In their last ten meetings Penarol has won six times, most recently defeating Aguada 107-92 on 22 June. Pythia projects a 88-77 score for the game, with a total of 164.5 points; the home team line is -12.5 with a 45% chance of covering, and the over line of 166.25 carries a 45% probability. The model also assigns a 3% chance of overtime, and Aguada's last outing ended in a 84-87 loss to Goes.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon

83.7%fair 1.19

Best odds1.11

Implied85.6%

Edge-1.8pp

Aguada winLost

16.3%fair 6.14

Best odds6.50

Implied14.4%

Edge+1.8pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Penarol

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPenarol

Date

Competition

Aguada

99-82

+17

94avg 85

H04/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

89-84

80avg 85

H10/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

71-78

-7

61avg 85

A13/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

81-92

-11

71avg 85

A17/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

80-71

71avg 85

H20/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

107-92

107

+15

102avg 85

A23/06

Liga Uruguaya

Urunday

#10

91-79

+12

68avg 85

A22/10

Liga Uruguaya

Malvin

101-76

101

+25

100avg 85

A29/10

Liga Uruguaya

Union Atletica

#12

88-74

+14

no box

A03/11

Liga Uruguaya

Defensor

84-65

+19

no box

H06/11

Liga Uruguaya

27-22

24-25

25-17

23-18

28-23

20-26

26-17

15-18

15-19

18-27

19-14

19-18

13-21

32-19

19-25

17-27

25-26

20-23

12-14

23-8

31-21

23-32

32-16

21-23

24-26

24-24

23-7

20-22

30-25

28-19

30-16

13-16

18-16

22-24

35-17

13-17

26-15

19-16

18-23

21-11

168.4Avg total

89.1Scored

79.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (4)	91.0	73.5	164.5	+17.5	100%
Season at home (1)	84.0	65.0	149.0	+19.0	100%
Season away (3)	93.3	76.3	169.7	+17.0	100%
Last 10 (10)	89.1	79.3	168.4	+9.8	80%
Last 5 (5)	94.2	77.2	171.4	+17.0	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	90.0	77.2	167.2	+12.8	83%

This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Aguada

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAguada

Date

Competition

Penarol

84-89

-5

75avg 79

A10/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

78-71

76avg 79

H13/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

92-81

+11

90avg 79

H17/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

71-80

-9

67avg 79

A20/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

92-107

107

-15

86avg 79

H23/06

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

83-81

75avg 79

A21/10

Liga Uruguaya

Union Atletica

#12

66-63

58avg 79

H24/10

Liga Uruguaya

Larranaga

75-91

-16

68avg 79

A28/10

Liga Uruguaya

Atenas

#11

84-57

+27

82avg 79

A31/10

Liga Uruguaya

Goes

84-87

-3

no box

H05/11

Liga Uruguaya

23-28

26-20

17-26

18-15

19-15

27-18

14-19

18-19

21-13

19-32

25-19

27-17

26-25

23-20

14-12

8-23

21-31

32-23

16-32

23-21

29-19

17-26

25-21

12-15

22-15

20-22

14-14

10-12

24-26

23-18

16-25

12-22

27-12

21-19

11-9

25-17

28-27

16-22

20-20

20-18

161.6Avg total

80.9Scored

80.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	78.4	75.8	154.2	+2.6	60%
Season at home (2)	75.0	75.0	150.0	+0.0	50%
Season away (3)	80.7	76.3	157.0	+4.3	67%
Last 10 (10)	80.9	80.7	161.6	+0.2	50%
Last 5 (5)	78.4	75.8	154.2	+2.6	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	86.9	90.2	177.1	-3.3	40%
vs Similar (2)	79.0	86.0	165.0	-7.0	50%
vs Weaker (13)	85.5	78.5	164.0	+7.1	85%

This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161

Over 161

58.1%

@ 1.58-0.3pp

Under 161

41.9%

@ 2.22+0.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.58

Under

Bet365

2.22

Over/Under 166.25 · main lineActual: Under 166.25

Over 166.25

44.6%

@ 1.81-5.4pp

Under 166.25

55.4%

@ 1.81+5.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.81

Under

1xBet

1.81

Over/Under 171Actual: Under 171

Over 171

33.7%

Under 171

66.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Penarol total 83.5Actual: Penarol under 83.5

Over 83.5

66.9%

@ 1.41+0.5pp

Under 83.5

33.1%

@ 2.70-0.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.41

1xBet

1.32

Under

Bet365

2.70

1xBet

2.68

Penarol total 87.5 · main lineActual: Penarol under 87.5

Over 87.5

51.4%

@ 1.82+0.6pp

Under 87.5

48.6%

@ 1.87-0.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.82

Bet365

1.80

1xBet

1.61

Under

1xBet

1.87

Bet365

1.86

Betano

1.82

Penarol total 91.5Actual: Penarol under 91.5

Over 91.5

35.7%

@ 2.35-4.2pp

Under 91.5

64.3%

@ 1.54+4.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.35

1xBet

2.16

Under

Bet365

1.54

1xBet

1.45

Aguada total 71.5Actual: Aguada under 71.5

Over 71.5

68.9%

@ 1.40+4.4pp

Under 71.5

31.1%

@ 2.75-4.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.39

Under

Bet365

2.75

1xBet

2.34

Aguada total 75.5 · main lineActual: Aguada under 75.5

Over 75.5

53.8%

@ 1.83+3.8pp

Under 75.5

46.2%

@ 1.83-3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.80

1xBet

1.76

Under

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.83

1xBet

1.68

Aguada total 79.5Actual: Aguada under 79.5

Over 79.5

38.4%

@ 2.47+1.2pp

Under 79.5

61.6%

@ 1.52-1.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.47

Bet365

2.40

Under

Bet365

1.52

1xBet

1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Penarol -16.5Actual: Aguada +16.5

PENA -16.5

31.6%

@ 2.30-8.7pp

AGUA +16.5

68.4%

@ 1.57+8.7pp

Best 5 market prices

PENA

Pinnacle

2.30

1xBet

2.28

Bet365

2.25

AGUA

Bet365

1.57

Pinnacle

1.55

1xBet

1.45

Spread Penarol -13.5 · main lineActual: Penarol -13.5

PENA -13.5

41.6%

@ 1.91-8.6pp

AGUA +13.5

58.4%

@ 1.88+8.6pp

Best 5 market prices

PENA

Betfair

1.91

Pinnacle

1.86

1xBet

1.85

SBO

1.84

Bet365

1.83

AGUA

Pinnacle

1.88

SBO

1.86

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.82

Betano

1.82

Spread Penarol -10.5Actual: Penarol -10.5

PENA -10.5

52.4%

@ 1.75-6.3pp

AGUA +10.5

47.6%

@ 2.30+6.3pp

Best 5 market prices

PENA

SBO

1.75

Betano

1.75

Pinnacle

1.58

Bet365

1.55

1xBet

1.48

AGUA

Bet365

2.30

Pinnacle

2.24

1xBet

2.20

SBO

1.95

Betano

1.88

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

PenarolAguada

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	23.1	20.0	43.2	+3.1	63%	50%
Last 30 at home (15)	24.6	19.3	43.9	+5.3	73%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	21.7	20.8	42.5	+0.9	53%	47%
Last 10 (10)	23.7	21.4	45.1	+2.3	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	25.8	20.6	46.4	+5.2	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	23.1	20.0	43.2	+3.1	63%	50%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	23.7	22.4	46.1	+1.3	60%	60%
Last 30 at home (14)	23.2	20.9	44.1	+2.3	79%	50%
Last 30 away (16)	24.1	23.7	47.8	+0.4	44%	69%
Last 10 (10)	24.0	21.1	45.1	+2.9	70%	60%
Last 5 (5)	26.0	19.8	45.8	+6.2	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	22.9	23.3	46.1	-0.4	53%	60%
vs Similar (2)	26.5	22.5	49.0	+4.0	50%	100%
vs Weaker (13)	24.2	21.4	45.5	+2.8	69%	54%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.6	20.7	44.4	+2.9	60%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.4	19.5	42.9	+3.9	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	23.9	22.0	45.9	+1.9	60%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.0	23.5	46.5	-0.5	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.2	23.0	46.2	+0.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	23.6	20.7	44.4	+2.9	60%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.7	22.8	45.6	-0.1	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	24.5	22.9	47.4	+1.6	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.2	22.8	44.0	-1.6	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.4	22.0	44.4	+0.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	21.4	40.8	-2.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	23.8	24.0	47.8	-0.2	60%	-
vs Similar (2)	20.0	22.0	42.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (13)	21.9	21.6	43.5	+0.3	62%	-

PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Aguada

51-47

H04/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

48-49

-1

H10/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

33-46

-13

A13/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

45-40

A17/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

45-49

-4

H20/06

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

54-53

A23/06

Liga Uruguaya

Urunday

#10

48-50

-2

A22/10

Liga Uruguaya

Malvin

58-44

+14

A29/10

Liga Uruguaya

Union Atletica

#12

40-40

A03/11

Liga Uruguaya

Defensor

45-31

+14

H06/11

Liga Uruguaya

91.6Avg total

46.7Scored

44.9Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84
Last 30 (30)	46.8	40.8	87.5	+6.0	70%	53%
Last 30 at home (15)	48.0	38.7	86.7	+9.3	73%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	45.5	42.8	88.3	+2.7	67%	53%
Last 10 (10)	46.7	44.9	91.6	+1.8	50%	70%
Last 5 (5)	49.0	43.6	92.6	+5.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	46.8	40.8	87.5	+6.0	70%	53%

This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Penarol

49-48

A10/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

46-33

+13

H13/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

40-45

-5

H17/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

49-45

A20/06

Liga Uruguaya

Penarol

53-54

-1

H23/06

Liga Uruguaya

Nacional

46-45

A21/10

Liga Uruguaya

Union Atletica

#12

42-37

H24/10

Liga Uruguaya

Larranaga

47-44

A28/10

Liga Uruguaya

Atenas

#11

48-31

+17

A31/10

Liga Uruguaya

Goes

44-49

-5

H05/11

Liga Uruguaya

89.5Avg total

46.4Scored

43.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84
Last 30 (30)	46.4	45.2	91.6	+1.2	57%	77%
Last 30 at home (14)	47.7	43.8	91.5	+3.9	64%	79%
Last 30 away (16)	45.2	46.5	91.8	-1.2	50%	75%
Last 10 (10)	46.4	43.1	89.5	+3.3	70%	70%
Last 5 (5)	45.4	41.2	86.6	+4.2	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	46.7	47.3	93.9	-0.6	47%	93%
vs Similar (2)	46.5	44.5	91.0	+2.0	100%	100%
vs Weaker (13)	46.1	43.0	89.1	+3.1	62%	54%

This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Penarol win

PENA win

no forecast

@ 1.26

AGUA win

no forecast

@ 4.87

1st half Spread Penarol -8 · main lineActual: Penarol -8

PENA -8

no forecast

@ 1.90

AGUA +8

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 84 · main lineActual: Over 84

Over

no forecast

@ 1.87

Under

no forecast

@ 1.86

Penarol 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: Penarol over 45.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.86

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

Aguada 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Aguada under 38.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.93

Under

no forecast

@ 1.86

1st half: PENA + total 84.5

PENA & over

no forecast

@ 2.60

PENA & under

no forecast

@ 2.45

1st half: Draw + total 84.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 31.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 31.00

1st half: AGUA + total 84.5

AGUA & over

no forecast

@ 7.00

AGUA & under

no forecast

@ 6.50

1st half Over/Under 82.5Actual: Over 82.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under

no forecast

@ 2.10

1st half Spread Penarol -7Actual: Penarol -7

PENA -7

no forecast

@ 1.81

AGUA +7

no forecast

@ 2.02

1st half Spread Penarol -9.5Actual: Penarol -9.5

PENA -9.5

no forecast

@ 2.14

AGUA +9.5

no forecast

@ 1.51

1st half Over/Under 86.5Actual: Over 86.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.22

Under

no forecast

@ 1.58

1st half Over/Under 81Actual: Over 81

Over

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under

no forecast

@ 1.94

1st half Spread Penarol -6Actual: Penarol -6

PENA -6

no forecast

@ 1.80

AGUA +6

no forecast

@ 2.12

1st half Spread Penarol -10.5Actual: Penarol -10.5

PENA -10.5

no forecast

@ 2.60

AGUA +10.5

no forecast

@ 1.45

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Penarol (regulation)

PENA

no forecast

@ 1.31

Draw

no forecast

@ 20.00

AGUA

no forecast

@ 4.39

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.2	17.8	40.0	+4.4	70%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	20.3	17.7	37.9	+2.6	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	24.2	17.9	42.1	+6.3	80%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.9	16.6	40.5	+7.3	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	27.6	15.8	43.4	+11.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	22.2	17.8	40.0	+4.4	70%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.7	20.8	39.5	-2.1	37%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.0	20.9	39.9	-1.9	36%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.5	20.8	39.2	-2.2	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.2	19.7	36.9	-2.5	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.2	17.8	35.0	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	18.9	22.9	41.8	-3.9	27%	-
vs Similar (2)	20.5	23.0	43.5	-2.5	50%	-
vs Weaker (13)	18.2	18.1	36.3	+0.2	46%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.2	17.9	38.1	+2.3	60%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.5	16.9	38.5	+4.6	73%	-
Last 30 away (15)	18.9	18.9	37.8	+0.1	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.5	17.8	36.3	+0.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.6	17.8	35.4	-0.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	20.2	17.9	38.1	+2.3	60%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.8	18.3	38.2	+1.5	63%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.2	19.3	39.5	+0.9	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.5	17.5	37.0	+2.0	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.3	17.9	35.2	-0.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.8	16.8	32.6	-1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	20.5	19.3	39.9	+1.2	67%	-
vs Similar (2)	12.0	18.5	30.5	-6.5	0%	-
vs Weaker (13)	20.2	17.2	37.4	+3.1	69%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.5	35.7	78.2	+6.8	73%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	41.8	34.6	76.4	+7.2	80%	-
Last 30 away (15)	43.1	36.8	79.9	+6.3	67%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.4	34.4	76.8	+8.0	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	45.2	33.6	78.8	+11.6	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)	42.5	35.7	78.2	+6.8	73%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.6	39.1	77.7	-0.6	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	39.2	40.1	79.4	-0.9	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	38.0	38.2	76.2	-0.2	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	34.5	37.6	72.1	-3.1	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	33.0	34.6	67.6	-1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)	39.5	42.2	81.7	-2.7	40%	-
vs Similar (2)	32.5	41.5	74.0	-9.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (13)	38.5	35.2	73.7	+3.2	54%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

PENA win + total 165.5

🔒 Pro

AGUA win + total 165.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: PENA leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: AGUA leads at half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Aguada +17	70.6%	1.52	Bet365 1.52	-	-	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Aguada +23.5	86.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+8.2pp	Won
Aguada +17.5	71.5%	1.44	Bet365 1.50	1xBet 1.37	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Aguada +18.5	74.4%	1.37	Bet365 1.43	1xBet 1.31	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Penarol under 99.5	87.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Won
Penarol under 98.5	85.8%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Penarol under 105.5	96.1%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
Penarol under 108.5	98.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Penarol under 101.5	91.4%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Aguada +19.5	77.1%	1.24	1xBet 1.24	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Penarol under 107.5	97.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Penarol under 109.5	98.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Penarol under 103.5	94.1%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Aguada +33.5	96.8%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Penarol under 95.5	77.9%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Aguada +28.5	93.1%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Penarol over 69.5	96.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Won
Penarol over 76.5	87.1%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Penarol over 68.5	97.2%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Penarol under 97.5	83.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Penarol under 94.5	74.8%	1.28	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Aguada over 58.5	96.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Penarol over 67.5	97.8%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Penarol over 71.5	94.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Aguada over 70.5	72.3%	1.35	Bet365 1.36	1xBet 1.34	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Lost
Penarol over 72.5	93.6%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Penarol under 93.5	71.5%	1.36	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.33	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Aguada over 60.5	94.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Aguada over 56.5	97.6%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Penarol over 73.5	92.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Penarol over 74.5	90.8%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Aguada over 62.5	91.8%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Aguada under 95.5	96.1%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Aguada over 69.5	75.6%	1.27	1xBet 1.28	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
Aguada under 96.5	96.8%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Aguada over 64.5	88.3%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Penarol over 77.5	84.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Aguada over 55.5	98.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Overtime: no	96.8%	1.01	Betano 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
Aguada over 68.5	78.6%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Lost
Penarol over 75.5	89.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Aguada under 93.5	94.4%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
Aguada over 65.5	86.2%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Won
Aguada under 94.5	95.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Under 189.5	93.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Aguada under 86.5	83.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Penarol over 79.5	79.8%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Penarol over 78.5	82.5%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Aguada over 67.5	81.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Lost
Over 139.5	93.7%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Penarol +11.5	96.9%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Aguada under 91.5	92.2%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Aguada under 92.5	93.4%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Under 179.5	82.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Aguada under 89.5	89.2%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Aguada over 66.5	83.9%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Lost
Aguada under 87.5	85.4%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Penarol over 81.5	73.8%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Under 184.5	88.8%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Aguada under 90.5	90.8%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.1pp	Won
Aguada under 85.5	80.8%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
Penarol +6.5	93.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
Over 144.5	88.9%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.7pp	Won
Under 174.5	73.3%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Over 149.5	81.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Lost
Aguada under 88.5	87.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Aguada under 83.5	75.2%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Over 154.5	72.6%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Lost
Aguada under 84.5	78.1%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
Penarol (regulation)	81.8%	1.09	1xBet 1.09	-	-	-	-	-0.0pp	Won
Penarol over 82.5	70.4%	1.24	1xBet 1.24	-	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Lost
Aguada under 82.5	72.1%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	-0.3pp	Won
Penarol win	83.7%	1.09	Betano 1.11	Bet365 1.10	Betfair 1.10	1xBet 1.09	Pinnacle 1.07	-1.8pp	Won
Penarol +1.5	85.3%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	-2.7pp	Won
Penarol -3.5	76.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-3.2pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 89.2 points a game scored

🏀🏀55%

🏀🏀🏀30%

🏀15%

🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 55% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 30% of the points

🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 15% of the points

League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.2	24.6	56.9%	50.3%	49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.8	9.0	32.4%	32.1%	27.0
🏀 Free throws	20.1	13.0	64.7%	70.5%	13.0

They take 71.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 80.4 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀34%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 34% of the points

🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.9	18.9	52.6%	50.3%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.2	9.2	33.8%	32.1%	27.6
🏀 Free throws	20.9	15.0	71.8%	70.5%	15.0

They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.6	18.9	54.6%	50.3%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.8	7.9	31.9%	32.1%	23.7
🏀 Free throws	20.7	16.2	78.3%	70.5%	16.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.8	22.7	51.8%	50.3%	45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.7	8.7	31.4%	32.1%	26.1
🏀 Free throws	16.2	9.8	60.5%	70.5%	9.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.9	23.7	58.0%	50.3%	47.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.0	9.8	33.8%	32.1%	29.4
🏀 Free throws	19.4	13.1	67.6%	70.5%	13.1

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.9	19.1	53.2%	50.3%	38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.4	9.9	34.7%	32.1%	29.6
🏀 Free throws	22.4	17.2	76.9%	70.5%	17.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.4	19.0	50.7%	50.3%	37.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.6	8.5	31.8%	32.1%	25.4
🏀 Free throws	18.9	14.1	74.6%	70.5%	14.1

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.6	22.2	51.0%	50.3%	44.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.3	8.5	30.0%	32.1%	25.4
🏀 Free throws	19.0	13.7	72.1%	70.5%	13.7

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Penarol

WWWWWWLLWW

Aguada

LWLWWLLWWL

League position

+12.9

Net rating

-1.0

100.0

Offensive rating

89.5

87.1

Defensive rating

90.5

53.7%

Effective FG%

51.8%

Opp. effective FG%

50.0%

13.6%

Turnover %

18.1%

0.28

Free-throw rate

0.33

32.4%

3-point %

33.8%

61.3%

Assist %

65.1%

80%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ Penarol ■ Aguada

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Penarol wins

Aguada wins

Date	Game	Score
23/06/26	Aguada v Penarol	92-107
20/06/26	Penarol v Aguada	80-71
17/06/26	Aguada v Penarol	92-81
13/06/26	Aguada v Penarol	78-71
10/06/26	Penarol v Aguada	89-84
04/06/26	Penarol v Aguada	99-82
18/04/26	Penarol v Aguada	103-95
10/03/26	Aguada v Penarol	86-80
27/01/26	Aguada v Penarol	91-80
08/11/25	Penarol v Aguada	103-89

Penarollast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
06/11/26	H	Defensor	84-65
03/11/26	A	Union Atletica	88-74
29/10/26	A	Malvin	101-76
22/10/26	A	Urunday	91-79
23/06/26	A	Aguada	107-92
20/06/26	H	Aguada	80-71
17/06/26	A	Aguada	81-92
13/06/26	A	Aguada	71-78
10/06/26	H	Aguada	89-84
04/06/26	H	Aguada	99-82

Aguadalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
05/11/26	H	Goes	84-87
31/10/26	A	Atenas	84-57
28/10/26	A	Larranaga	75-91
24/10/26	H	Union Atletica	66-63
21/10/26	A	Nacional	83-81
23/06/26	H	Penarol	92-107
20/06/26	A	Penarol	71-80
17/06/26	H	Penarol	92-81
13/06/26	H	Penarol	78-71
10/06/26	A	Penarol	84-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol

Liga Uruguaya 2026-27

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWW	100%
Home	W	100%
Away	WWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	4	1	3
Win %	100%	100%	100%
Points / game	91.0	84.0	93.3
Allowed / game	73.5	65.0	76.3
Point differential	+17.5	+19.0	+17.0
Avg total	164.5	149.0	169.7
Over 166.25	50%	0%	67%
Win by 10+	100%	100%	100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Aguada

Liga Uruguaya 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWL	60%
Home	WL	50%
Away	WLW	67%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	2	3
Win %	60%	50%	67%
Points / game	78.4	75.0	80.7
Allowed / game	75.8	75.0	76.3
Point differential	+2.6	+0.0	+4.3
Avg total	154.2	150.0	157.0
Over 166.25	20%	50%	0%
Win by 10+	20%	0%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	50% (2)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Penarol	4	4	0	100%	91.0	73.5	+17.5
2	Goes	6	5	1	83%	93.5	83.7	+9.8
3	Bigua	6	5	1	83%	92.8	84.8	+8.0
4	Hebraica y Macabi	5	3	2	60%	84.6	81.4	+3.2
5	Aguada	5	3	2	60%	78.4	75.8	+2.6
6	Defensor	5	3	2	60%	80.0	78.6	+1.4
7	Malvin	6	3	3	50%	76.5	79.7	-3.2
8	Urunday	6	2	4	33%	79.7	80.7	-1.0
9	Larranaga	6	2	4	33%	84.7	86.2	-1.5
10	Nacional	5	1	4	20%	89.6	95.4	-5.8
11	Union Atletica	6	1	5	17%	77.2	84.5	-7.3
12	Atenas	6	1	5	17%	71.0	88.7	-17.7

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Penarol	25	26	7	24	82
Aguada	20	18	14	14	66

← all games of the day

Penarol vs Aguada Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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