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Benfica vs Ovarense Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 91-80
Projected total 170.1
Scheduled
Position#1
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game73.6
Benfica
Portugal
Vs
83%
17%
■ BEN 83%■ OVAR 17%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.3/10
Below normal
Ovarense
Portugal
Position#3
Record6-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game84.4
Allowed / game76.9
PortugalLPBRound 8· Pavilhão Fidelidade
Other2026-27
Meetings · Benfica v Ovarense
21 Nov 2026
BEN v OVAR
upcoming
28 Mar 2026
BEN89
OVAR70
24 May 2025
BEN103
OVAR71
22 May 2025
BEN85
OVAR66
29 Mar 2025
BEN93
OVAR59
18 Nov 2023
BEN84
OVAR52
22 May 2023
BEN91
OVAR79
20 May 2023
BEN88
OVAR59
22 Mar 2023
BEN91
OVAR75
14 Jan 2023
BEN76
OVAR77
21 Oct 2022
BEN97
OVAR72
06 May 2022
BEN96
OVAR65
12 Feb 2022
BEN86
OVAR64
04 Dec 2020
BEN92
OVAR73
04 Dec 2019
BEN74
OVAR70
27 Apr 2019
BEN90
OVAR61
15 Mar 2019
BEN64
OVAR65
15 Dec 2018
BEN101
OVAR78
18 Nov 2017
BEN83
OVAR81
22 Oct 2016
BEN87
OVAR69
05 Mar 2016
BEN96
OVAR92
20 Feb 2016
BEN99
OVAR91
20 May 2015
BEN100
OVAR67
10 May 2015
BEN89
OVAR79
09 May 2015
BEN87
OVAR94
11 Apr 2015
BEN94
OVAR73
05 Apr 2014
BEN86
OVAR65
05 May 2013
BEN70
OVAR50
04 May 2013
BEN88
OVAR55
05 Jan 2013
BEN91
OVAR80
03 Dec 2011
BEN70
OVAR68
17 Apr 2011
BEN84
OVAR77
15 Apr 2011
BEN82
OVAR66
26 Mar 2011
BEN94
OVAR83
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Benfica host Ovarense in the LPB. Pythia makes Benfica the favourite at 83% and projects 91-80, about 170 points in all. Overtime chance: 3%. Benfica are 6-1 this season (88.3 scored, 73.6 allowed a game), form WWWWW; Ovarense are 6-1 this season (84.4 scored, 76.9 allowed a game), form WLWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Benfica win
83.4%fair 1.20
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Ovarense win
16.6%fair 6.03
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BenficaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBenfica
Date
Competition
Denizli Basket
#31
W
96-91
96
91
+5
87avg 88
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#4
W
92-67
92
67
+25
90avg 88
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
98-83
98
83
+15
93avg 88
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#8
W
89-72
89
72
+17
87avg 88
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
L
90-93
90
93
-3
80avg 88
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
86-72
86
72
+14
83avg 88
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
97-76
97
76
+21
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
112-78
112
78
+34
no box
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
94-79
94
79
+15
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
CAB Madeira
#10
W
69-62
69
62
+7
no box
H14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
16-19
27-19
14-16
29-18
25-18
30-21
24-17
18-20
23-20
25-14
27-28
37-16
26-20
24-22
24-24
20-13
11-18
29-13
12-14
17-17
169.6Avg total
92.3Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.373.6161.9+14.786%
Season at home (4)89.269.5158.8+19.8100%
Season away (3)87.079.0166.0+8.067%
Last 10 (10)92.377.3169.6+15.090%
Last 5 (5)91.673.4165.0+18.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)93.090.5183.5+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)90.777.4168.1+13.378%
This opponent (Ovarense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OvarensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOvarense
Date
Competition
Oliveirense
#5
W
93-79
93
79
+14
90avg 72
H09/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
72-90
72
90
-18
56avg 72
A13/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
65-69
65
69
-4
48avg 72
H16/05
LPB
Braga
#6
W
96-83
96
83
+13
47avg 72
H03/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
87-71
87
71
+16
81avg 72
A10/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
78-69
78
69
+9
63avg 72
H17/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
70-71
70
71
-1
64avg 72
A24/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
78-76
78
76
+2
56avg 72
H31/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
W
93-87
93
87
+6
no box
A07/11
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
W
89-81
89
81
+8
no box
H14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-18
21-19
18-15
29-27
23-27
24-25
13-19
12-19
16-10
18-17
18-18
13-24
26-19
26-9
23-20
21-35
17-21
20-17
30-9
20-24
17-12
20-17
25-23
16-17
24-16
12-22
16-14
18-19
23-12
15-24
17-20
23-20
16-26
34-31
26-19
17-11
14-20
23-24
24-26
28-11
159.7Avg total
82.1Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)84.476.9161.3+7.686%
Season at home (4)85.277.2162.5+8.0100%
Season away (3)83.376.3159.7+7.067%
Last 10 (10)82.177.6159.7+4.570%
Last 5 (5)81.676.8158.4+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)71.880.3152.2-8.517%
vs Similar (8)82.279.0161.2+3.262%
vs Weaker (16)85.377.4162.8+7.981%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 161
Over 161
71.1%
Under 161
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
59.5%
Under 166
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
47.1%
Under 171
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Benfica total 81
Over 81
83.8%
Under 81
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica total 85
Over 85
71.9%
Under 85
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica total 89
Over 89
56.5%
Under 89
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ovarense total 77.5
Over 77.5
57.1%
Under 77.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ovarense total 81.5
Over 81.5
41.6%
Under 81.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ovarense total 85.5
Over 85.5
27.5%
Under 85.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Benfica -3
BEN -3
77.9%
OVAR +3
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
BEN
No market prices yet.
OVAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Benfica 0
BEN 0
83.4%
OVAR 0
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
BEN
No market prices yet.
OVAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Benfica +3
BEN +3
88.5%
OVAR -3
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
BEN
No market prices yet.
OVAR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: +3.1+3.1Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: -1.0-1.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: +3.1+3.1Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: -1.0-1.0
BenficaOvarense
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denizli Basket
#31
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#4
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#8
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
55-39
55
39
+16
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
CAB Madeira
#10
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H14/11
LPB
88.3Avg total
47.7Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.439.185.6+7.380%-
Last 30 at home (18)48.137.785.8+10.489%-
Last 30 away (12)43.941.285.2+2.767%-
Last 10 (10)47.740.688.3+7.190%-
Last 5 (5)47.236.884.0+10.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)49.047.596.5+1.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)46.338.684.9+7.778%-
This opponent (Ovarense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OvarenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oliveirense
#5
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H09/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
L
47-52
47
52
-5
A13/05
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H16/05
LPB
Braga
#6
W
52-28
52
28
+24
H03/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A10/10
LPB
CD Povoa
#7
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H17/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A24/10
LPB
FC Porto
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H31/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A07/11
LPB
CA Queluz
#8
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H14/11
LPB
80.0Avg total
41.4Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.240.581.7+0.740%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.738.377.9+1.453%-
Last 30 away (15)42.842.785.5+0.127%-
Last 10 (10)41.438.680.0+2.850%-
Last 5 (5)39.640.880.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)35.541.577.0-6.017%-
vs Similar (8)43.439.082.4+4.462%-
vs Weaker (16)42.340.983.2+1.438%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.025.4
52.9%
51.1%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.17.0
31.7%
31.9%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.318.2
74.9%
71.1%18.2
They take 70.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ovarensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ovarense: 71.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.519.3
48.9%
51.1%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.76.8
27.5%
31.9%20.4
🏀 Free throws16.412.0
73.2%
71.1%12.0
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Benfica
WWWWWLWWWW
Ovarense
WWWLWWWLLW
#1
League position
#3
+8.7
Net rating
-5.3
96.7
Offensive rating
83.9
88.0
Defensive rating
89.2
51.2%
Effective FG%
46.0%
46.5%
Opp. effective FG%
48.4%
13.4%
Turnover %
14.8%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.7%
3-point %
27.5%
54.0%
Assist %
64.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence96.7 · 83.9Defence88.0 · 89.2Shooting51.2% · 46.0%3-point %31.7% · 27.5%Ball care13.4% · 14.8%Free throws0.35 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)90% · 70%
■ Benfica   ■ Ovarense
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Benfica wins
0
Ovarense wins
DateGameScore
28/03/26Benfica v Ovarense89-70
06/12/25Ovarense v Benfica70-96
29/05/25Ovarense v Benfica80-89
24/05/25Benfica v Ovarense103-71
22/05/25Benfica v Ovarense85-66
29/03/25Benfica v Ovarense93-59
07/12/24Ovarense v Benfica77-98
23/03/24Ovarense v Benfica79-87
27/01/24Ovarense v Benfica74-98
18/11/23Benfica v Ovarense84-52
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCAB Madeira69-62
11/11/26HBakken Bears94-79
07/11/26HEsgueira112-78
04/11/26HAbsheron Lions97-76
31/10/26APortimonense86-72
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91
Ovarenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCA Queluz89-81
07/11/26AOliveirense93-87
31/10/26HFC Porto78-76
24/10/26ASporting CP70-71
17/10/26HCD Povoa78-69
10/10/26AVitoria87-71
03/10/26HBraga96-83
16/05/26HOliveirense65-69
13/05/26AOliveirense72-90
09/05/26HOliveirense93-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Benfica
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game88.389.287.0
Allowed / game73.669.579.0
Point differential+14.7+19.8+8.0
Avg total161.9158.8166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%75%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ovarense
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game84.485.283.3
Allowed / game76.977.276.3
Point differential+7.6+8.0+7.0
Avg total161.3162.5159.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica76186%88.373.6+14.7
2 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
3 Ovarense76186%84.476.9+7.6
4 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
5 Sporting CP74357%83.674.6+9.0
6 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
7 CD Povoa74357%75.075.3-0.3
8 CA Queluz63350%87.891.7-3.8
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira71614%82.786.4-3.7
11 Portimonense71614%78.789.0-10.3
12 Esgueira7070%80.397.7-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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