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Botafogo vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 05 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 86-85
25-19 27-25 16-22 18-19
Position#18
Record8-22
FormWLLLL
Points / game73.1
Allowed / game81.5
Botafogo 🏆
Brazil
vs
Sao Paulo
Brazil
Position#13
Record11-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game75.9
Allowed / game79.9
BrazilNBB· Oscar Zelaya Gymnasium
Other2024-25
Meetings · Botafogo v Sao Paulo
05 Apr 2025
BOTA86
SAO 85
25 Mar 2024
BOTA83
SAO 79
12 Nov 2019
BOTA78
SAO 85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Botafogo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
L
71-83
71
83
-12
64avg 65
H16/01
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
74-83
74
83
-9
67avg 65
H20/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
67-78
67
78
-11
59avg 65
A06/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
77-90
77
90
-13
69avg 65
A08/02
NBB
Pato
#14
W
91-76
91
76
+15
86avg 65
H16/02
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
71-68
71
68
+3
61avg 65
H03/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
66-80
66
80
-14
54avg 65
A13/03
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
71-94
71
94
-23
66avg 65
A17/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
85-92
85
92
-7
79avg 65
H29/03
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
64-85
64
85
-21
50avg 65
H03/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-30
18-15
15-15
21-23
20-17
17-18
19-21
18-27
11-24
21-19
19-12
16-23
27-24
20-18
10-32
20-16
26-29
24-27
19-13
22-7
18-27
17-14
15-16
21-11
20-18
13-23
19-19
14-20
14-24
18-22
22-24
17-24
26-20
21-21
15-22
23-29
12-16
15-28
19-20
18-21
156.6Avg total
73.7Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)73.181.5154.6-8.327%
Season at home (16)73.881.4155.2-7.631%
Season away (14)72.481.6153.9-9.221%
Last 10 (10)73.782.9156.6-9.220%
Last 5 (5)71.483.8155.2-12.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)72.783.6156.3-11.021%
vs Similar (6)75.072.8147.8+2.250%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Minas
#2
L
66-82
66
82
-16
60avg 71
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
66-90
66
90
-24
50avg 71
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 71
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 71
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 71
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
78-88
78
88
-10
65avg 71
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 71
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 71
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 71
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 71
A04/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
14-20
18-25
10-21
18-22
14-31
18-18
16-19
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
15-23
16-18
17-31
30-16
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
154.4Avg total
71.4Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)75.979.9155.8-4.135%
Season at home (15)76.077.3153.3-1.347%
Season away (16)75.882.4158.2-6.725%
Last 10 (10)71.483.0154.4-11.610%
Last 5 (5)73.686.6160.2-13.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)73.078.7151.7-5.730%
vs Similar (14)76.681.9158.5-5.229%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)75.876.8152.6-1.040%
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.8-3.8Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: -5.4-5.4Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.3-0.3
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.8-3.8Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: -5.4-5.4Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.3-0.3
BotafogoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H16/01
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A06/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A08/02
NBB
Pato
#14
L
50-56
50
56
-6
H16/02
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H03/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A13/03
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A17/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H29/03
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H03/04
NBB
80.9Avg total
37.5Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.740.976.6-5.227%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.941.076.9-5.131%-
Last 30 away (14)35.540.976.4-5.421%-
Last 10 (10)37.543.480.9-5.930%-
Last 5 (5)34.842.677.4-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)35.442.978.2-7.517%-
vs Similar (6)37.033.270.2+3.867%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
77.0Avg total
35.4Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.739.676.3-2.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.939.276.1-2.340%-
Last 30 away (15)36.540.176.5-3.640%-
Last 10 (10)35.441.677.0-6.230%-
Last 5 (5)35.845.481.2-9.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)34.539.273.7-4.730%-
vs Similar (14)38.240.478.6-2.243%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)36.639.075.6-2.440%-
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 73.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.1 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.921.3
50.8%
50.9%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.55.7
29.2%
33.0%17.1
🏀 Free throws21.713.4
61.8%
72.7%13.4
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 70.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.416.1
48.2%
50.9%32.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.88.0
32.3%
33.0%24.0
🏀 Free throws20.414.0
68.6%
72.7%14.0
They take 58.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Botafogo
LLLLWWLLLL
Sao Paulo
LLLLLLWLLL
#18
League position
#13
-11.7
Net rating
-16.3
96.3
Offensive rating
95.4
108.1
Defensive rating
111.8
48.6%
Effective FG%
48.3%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
19.4%
Turnover %
20.1%
26.5%
Off. rebound %
23.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.35
29.2%
3-point %
32.3%
60.4%
Assist %
68.5%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence96.3 · 95.4Defence108.1 · 111.8Shooting48.6% · 48.3%3-point %29.2% · 32.3%Ball care19.4% · 20.1%Off. rebounds26.5% · 23.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)20% · 10%
■ Botafogo   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Botafogo wins
4
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
15/12/24Sao Paulo v Botafogo82-71
25/03/24Botafogo v Sao Paulo83-79
04/12/23Sao Paulo v Botafogo78-77
18/01/20Sao Paulo v Botafogo83-68
12/11/19Botafogo v Sao Paulo78-85
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/04/25HPaulistano64-85
29/03/25HFlamengo85-92
17/03/25ABrasilia71-94
13/03/25AVasco66-80
03/03/25HSao Jose71-68
16/02/25HPato91-76
08/02/25AUniao Corinthians77-90
06/02/25ACaxias do Sul67-78
20/01/25HCearense74-83
16/01/25HUnifacisa71-83
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
08/03/25AVasco78-88
04/03/25HCearense75-79
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
04/02/25HCorinthians Paulista66-90
25/01/25AMinas66-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Botafogo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL27%
HomeLWWLL31%
AwayLLLLL21%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %27%31%21%
Points / game73.173.872.4
Allowed / game81.581.481.6
Point differential-8.3-7.6-9.2
Avg total154.6155.2153.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%12%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %7%6%7%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL35%
HomeLLWLL47%
AwayLLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %35%47%25%
Points / game75.976.075.8
Allowed / game79.977.382.4
Point differential-4.1-1.3-6.7
Avg total155.8153.3158.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%27%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)50% (6)43% (7)
Overtime %3%0%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3026487%82.771.5+11.1
2 Flamengo3023777%84.775.5+9.3
3 Franca3021970%84.476.2+8.2
4 Brasilia31191261%81.779.8+1.8
5 Vasco31181358%77.375.7+1.6
6 Bauru31181358%78.578.3+0.3
7 Pinheiros30161453%76.675.5+1.1
8 Uniao Corinthians30161453%78.279.4-1.2
9 Sao Jose31161552%78.378.0+0.4
10 Unifacisa31151648%75.275.3-0.1
11 Corinthians Paulista30141647%80.479.2+1.2
12 Paulistano31141745%78.576.7+1.9
13 Pato31121939%81.983.6-1.7
14 Sao Paulo31112035%75.979.9-4.1
15 Caxias do Sul30102033%73.780.7-7.1
16 Mogi31102132%73.880.8-7.0
17 Botafogo3082227%73.181.5-8.3
18 Cearense3182326%71.678.4-6.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Botafogo2527161886
Sao Paulo1925221985
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