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Botafogo vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 25 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 83-79
20-21 25-21 12-15 26-22
Position#15
Record8-25
FormLWWLL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game88.2
vs
Position#11
Record15-14
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game79.3
BrazilNBB· Oscar Zelaya Gymnasium
Other2023-24
Meetings · Botafogo v Sao Paulo
05 Apr 2025
BOTA86
SAO 85
25 Mar 2024
BOTA83
SAO 79
12 Nov 2019
BOTA78
SAO 85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Botafogo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#2
L
78-102
78
102
-24
69avg 65
H06/02
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
86-98
86
98
-12
80avg 65
A09/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
75-84
75
84
-9
65avg 65
A14/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
66-96
66
96
-30
55avg 65
A16/02
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
90-93 OT
90
93
-3
no box
H29/02
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
84-87 OT
84
87
-3
no box
H05/03
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
82-79
82
79
+3
68avg 65
A08/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
108-106 OT
108
106
+2
no box
A10/03
NBB
Franca
#1
L
74-97
74
97
-23
57avg 65
A19/03
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
95-113
95
113
-18
83avg 65
A21/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-31
21-21
22-26
13-24
21-18
28-30
20-26
17-24
15-16
16-20
23-30
21-18
19-29
14-28
20-16
13-23
19-17
23-24
17-22
18-14
17-22
21-18
21-22
15-12
19-23
20-11
23-20
20-25
27-23
21-24
21-18
27-31
17-24
20-33
13-16
24-24
24-28
19-24
26-33
26-28
179.3Avg total
83.8Scored
95.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)79.088.2167.2-9.224%
Season at home (15)78.985.9164.8-6.927%
Season away (18)79.190.1169.2-11.022%
Last 10 (10)83.895.5179.3-11.720%
Last 5 (5)88.696.4185.0-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)78.389.7168.0-11.326%
vs Similar (5)77.081.4158.4-4.40%
vs Weaker (2)98.592.0190.5+6.5100%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
W
87-84
87
84
+3
80avg 72
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
82-86
82
86
-4
75avg 72
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Pato
#12
W
80-74
80
74
+6
78avg 72
A07/02
NBB
Nacional
#7
W
93-76
93
76
+17
89avg 72
H11/02
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
94-82
94
82
+12
86avg 72
H13/02
Champions League Americas
Minas
#3
W
94-86
94
86
+8
90avg 72
A15/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
82-90
82
90
-8
77avg 72
H17/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
79-74
79
74
+5
78avg 72
H29/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
74-67
74
67
+7
72avg 72
H20/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
71-60
71
60
+11
67avg 72
H22/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
23-20
23-22
21-20
24-22
22-24
17-20
19-20
15-13
21-20
24-15
20-26
15-9
32-22
24-21
22-24
23-15
28-19
15-21
28-27
17-28
27-11
22-23
28-24
19-24
23-14
17-22
23-30
23-30
20-17
14-14
22-13
24-20
20-13
14-22
16-12
11-13
18-20
20-11
22-16
161.5Avg total
83.6Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)78.479.3157.7-1.052%
Season at home (16)78.477.9156.3+0.450%
Season away (13)78.481.1159.5-2.754%
Last 10 (10)83.677.9161.5+5.780%
Last 5 (5)80.075.4155.4+4.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)82.689.6172.1-7.044%
vs Similar (14)81.479.4160.8+2.150%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)74.469.0143.4+5.486%
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.9+0.9
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.9+0.9
BotafogoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#2
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H06/02
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A09/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A14/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
33-57
33
57
-24
A16/02
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H29/02
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H05/03
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A08/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A10/03
NBB
Franca
#1
L
37-57
37
57
-20
A19/03
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
43-52
43
52
-9
A21/03
NBB
86.7Avg total
40.3Scored
46.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.543.583.0-4.040%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.843.084.8-1.238%-
Last 30 away (17)37.743.981.6-6.241%-
Last 10 (10)40.346.486.7-6.140%-
Last 5 (5)41.046.087.0-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)38.544.983.4-6.430%-
vs Similar (5)39.637.477.0+2.260%-
vs Weaker (2)50.542.593.0+8.0100%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A28/01
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A29/01
Champions League Americas
Pato
#12
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A07/02
NBB
Nacional
#7
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H11/02
Champions League Americas
Quimsa
#3
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H13/02
Champions League Americas
Minas
#3
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A15/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H17/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H29/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H20/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H22/03
NBB
80.1Avg total
42.5Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.940.279.2-1.337%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.839.979.8-0.135%-
Last 30 away (13)37.840.678.4-2.838%-
Last 10 (10)42.537.680.1+4.970%-
Last 5 (5)40.438.078.4+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)42.142.384.4-0.244%-
vs Similar (14)38.641.580.1-2.929%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)35.435.070.4+0.443%-
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.417.2
47.3%
51.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.69.9
34.6%
33.9%29.7
🏀 Free throws19.514.0
71.8%
72.6%14.0
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 82.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.817.6
55.3%
51.8%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.810.9
35.4%
33.9%32.7
🏀 Free throws18.014.9
82.8%
72.6%14.9
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Botafogo
LLWWLLLLLL
Sao Paulo
WWWLWWWWLW
#15
League position
#11
-18.2
Net rating
+8.3
102.2
Offensive rating
112.1
120.3
Defensive rating
103.8
49.3%
Effective FG%
54.2%
59.3%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
17.1%
Turnover %
16.9%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
25.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.29
34.6%
3-point %
35.4%
60.9%
Assist %
60.0%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence102.2 · 112.1Defence120.3 · 103.8Shooting49.3% · 54.2%3-point %34.6% · 35.4%Ball care17.1% · 16.9%Off. rebounds24.9% · 25.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)20% · 80%
■ Botafogo   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Botafogo wins
3
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
04/12/23Sao Paulo v Botafogo78-77
18/01/20Sao Paulo v Botafogo83-68
12/11/19Botafogo v Sao Paulo78-85
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/24ABauru95-113
19/03/24AFranca74-97
10/03/24ABrasilia108-106 OT
08/03/24ACerrado82-79
05/03/24HMogi84-87 OT
29/02/24HSao Jose90-93 OT
16/02/24AUnifacisa66-96
14/02/24ACearense75-84
09/02/24AVasco86-98
06/02/24HFlamengo78-102
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/24HUniao Corinthians71-60
20/03/24HCaxias do Sul74-67
29/02/24HPinheiros79-74
17/02/24HCorinthians Paulista82-90
15/02/24AMinas94-86
13/02/24HQuimsa94-82
11/02/24HNacional93-76
07/02/24APato80-74
29/01/24ANacional82-86
28/01/24AQuimsa87-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Botafogo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL24%
HomeLLLLL27%
AwayLWWLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331518
Win %24%27%22%
Points / game79.078.979.1
Allowed / game88.285.990.1
Point differential-9.2-6.9-11.0
Avg total167.2164.8169.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+3%7%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)50% (6)57% (7)
Overtime %9%13%6%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW52%
HomeWLWWW50%
AwayWLWWW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291613
Win %52%50%54%
Points / game78.478.478.4
Allowed / game79.377.981.1
Point differential-1.0+0.4-2.7
Avg total157.7156.3159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%19%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca3025583%87.675.7+11.9
2 Flamengo3025583%84.973.7+11.2
3 Minas3123874%85.974.2+11.7
4 Vasco3022873%76.772.8+3.8
5 Bauru32211166%80.979.0+1.9
6 Unifacisa32201262%84.079.4+4.6
7 Paulistano29181162%75.271.5+3.7
8 Corinthians Paulista30171357%80.778.3+2.5
9 Cearense30161453%78.777.1+1.6
10 Sao Jose32171553%79.377.1+2.3
11 Sao Paulo29151452%78.479.3-1.0
12 Pinheiros30131743%75.478.1-2.7
13 Pato31131842%77.579.7-2.2
14 Uniao Corinthians31102132%74.583.4-8.8
15 Cerrado3082227%75.076.4-1.4
16 Caxias do Sul3082227%71.979.6-7.7
17 Mogi3282425%74.080.1-6.1
18 Botafogo3382524%79.088.2-9.2
19 Brasilia3042613%72.687.8-15.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Botafogo2025122683
Sao Paulo2121152279
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