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Buffalo vs UMass Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 05 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 23:30
Scheduled
Position#281
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game79.0
vs
Position#241
Record1-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game63.0
Allowed / game65.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Buffalo v UMass
05 Jan 2027
BUFF v UMAS
upcoming
23 Jan 2026
BUFF67
UMAS68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Buffalo win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
UMass win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
L
70-72
70
72
-2
H17/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
86-82 OT
86
82
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
85-99
85
99
-14
A25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
70-75
70
75
-5
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
72-67
72
67
+5
H03/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
78-98
78
98
-20
A07/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
70-73
70
73
-3
A12/03
NCAA
Marshall
#271
L
65-92
65
92
-27
A03/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#76
L
61-80
61
80
-19
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Schuylkill
#433
W
107-65
107
65
+42
H09/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-29
35-43
29-34
39-34
35-39
50-60
26-34
44-41
43-27
29-40
33-37
45-61
29-42
41-31
24-45
41-47
45-32
16-48
58-31
49-34
156.7Avg total
76.4Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)77.779.0156.7-1.333%
Season at home (1)107.065.0172.0+42.0100%
Season away (2)63.086.0149.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)76.480.3156.7-3.930%
Last 5 (5)76.281.6157.8-5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)76.684.6161.1-8.022%
vs Similar ◀ (10)76.180.4156.5-4.330%
vs Weaker (9)74.868.8143.6+6.067%
This opponent (UMass) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMassUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
92-99
92
99
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
L
82-86 OT
82
86
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
73-74 OT
73
74
-1
A25/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A28/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
94-82
94
82
+12
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
87-83
87
83
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
67-77
67
77
-10
A13/03
NCAA
Troy
#353
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A03/11
NCAA
Boston College
#74
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-44
49-55
36-41
41-45
34-29
34-39
34-21
27-40
37-28
25-53
37-39
57-43
37-39
50-44
34-43
33-34
38-28
33-32
35-37
20-34
155.9Avg total
76.0Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)63.065.5128.5-2.550%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)63.065.5128.5-2.550%
Last 10 (10)76.079.9155.9-3.930%
Last 5 (5)74.874.6149.4+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.686.7166.3-7.114%
vs Similar ◀ (11)80.480.7161.1-0.445%
vs Weaker (11)76.772.0148.7+4.773%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +1.6+1.62nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: -5.0-5.0
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +1.6+1.62nd half2nd half: -5.0-5.02nd half: -5.0-5.0
BuffaloUMass
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H17/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H03/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A07/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A12/03
NCAA
Marshall
#271
L
24-45
24
45
-21
A03/11
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#76
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Schuylkill
#433
W
58-31
58
31
+27
H09/11
NCAA
70.7Avg total
35.7Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.735.772.4+1.050%-
Last 30 at home (13)36.135.671.7+0.538%-
Last 30 away (17)37.235.772.9+1.559%-
Last 10 (10)35.735.070.7+0.740%-
Last 5 (5)37.837.475.2+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)35.740.075.7-4.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)32.637.369.9-4.730%-
vs Weaker (9)38.329.968.2+8.478%-
This opponent (UMass) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UMassLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
34-21
34
21
+13
A25/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A12/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Troy
#353
W
38-28
38
28
+10
A03/11
NCAA
Boston College
#74
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A06/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
36.5Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.334.270.5+2.157%-
Last 30 at home (13)34.632.467.0+2.254%-
Last 30 away (17)37.535.673.1+1.959%-
Last 10 (10)36.534.971.4+1.640%-
Last 5 (5)36.237.273.4-1.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)38.438.076.4+0.429%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)34.534.568.9+0.045%-
vs Weaker (11)36.332.769.0+3.582%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Buffalo wins
1
UMass wins
DateGameScore
21/02/26UMass v Buffalo82-86 OT
24/01/26Buffalo v UMass67-68
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/26HPenn State-Schuylkill107-65
06/11/26APittsburgh61-80
03/11/26AMarshall65-92
12/03/26AAkron70-73
07/03/26AToledo78-98
03/03/26HEastern Michigan72-67
28/02/26HCentral Michigan70-75
25/02/26AAkron85-99
21/02/26AUMass86-82 OT
17/02/26HNorthern Illinois70-72
UMasslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26ABoston College55-71
03/11/26ATroy71-60
13/03/26AToledo67-77
12/03/26AMiami (Ohio)87-83
04/03/26HOhio94-82
28/02/26ABowling Green62-81
25/02/26ABall State73-74 OT
21/02/26HBuffalo82-86 OT
18/02/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
14/02/26AAkron92-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Buffalo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game77.7107.063.0
Allowed / game79.065.086.0
Point differential-1.3+42.0-23.0
Avg total156.7172.0149.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
UMass
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
Home--
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %50%-50%
Points / game63.0-63.0
Allowed / game65.5-65.5
Point differential-2.5--2.5
Avg total128.5-128.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%-50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron220100%93.562.5+31.0
2 Central Michigan220100%88.064.0+24.0
3 Bowling Green220100%85.576.0+9.5
4 Ohio220100%83.073.5+9.5
5 Miami (Ohio)220100%83.075.0+8.0
6 Western Michigan32167%78.361.3+17.0
7 Kent State21150%88.567.5+21.0
8 UMass21150%63.065.5-2.5
9 Eastern Michigan21150%62.073.0-11.0
10 Ball State31233%70.066.7+3.3
11 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
12 Northern Illinois31233%81.086.3-5.3
13 Toledo31233%70.779.3-8.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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