Cantu will host Tortona on 15 November 2026 in the Lega Basket Serie A, with Tortona the model favourite as the odds suggest a 59% chance of victory versus Cantu's 41%. Cantu enters the game 0-7 for the season, averaging 76.9 points and conceding 90.9, while Tortona sits 2-5, scoring 83.7 and allowing 91.0. The home side has struggled at home, 0-3 with 82.0 points for and 93.0 against, and has lost its last five outings, most recently 60-81 to Reggiana. Tortona's road form is 0-3, 77.7 points for and 95.7 against, but the team has won two of its last five, including a 87-76 home win over Treviso. In their two previous encounters, Tortona has won both, the last meeting ending 100-73 on 22 March 2026. Pythia projects a 84-87 score for the game, a total of 170.6 points, with a 2.0-point line that the home side covers with 46% probability and an over line of 171.5 that has a 47% chance. The model assigns a 5% probability that the game will go into overtime, and the final game will see Tortona edge Cantu by three points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cantu win
40.9%fair 2.45
Best odds2.40
Implied40.5%
Edge+0.4pp
Tortona win
59.1%fair 1.69
Best odds1.67
Implied59.5%
Edge-0.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Cantu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 172 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%). The market's main line is 168.
Over/Under 163
Over 163
69.1%
@ 1.53+6.6pp
Under 163
30.9%
@ 2.50-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 168 · main line
Over 168
57.6%
@ 1.93+7.9pp
Under 168
42.4%
@ 1.90-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.83
1xBet
1.71
Over/Under 173
Over 173
45.5%
@ 2.35+5.3pp
Under 173
54.5%
@ 1.68-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Marathon Be
2.20
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.68
Bet365
1.54
Marathon Be
1.48
📊 3. Team Totals
Cantu total 78.5
Over 78.5
70.7%
@ 1.44+7.7pp
Under 78.5
29.3%
@ 2.75-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.36
Cantu total 82.5 · main line
Over 82.5
56.7%
@ 1.89+6.7pp
Under 82.5
43.3%
@ 1.91-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Cantu total 86.5
Over 86.5
42.0%
@ 2.45+2.4pp
Under 86.5
58.0%
@ 1.75-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
WilliamHill
2.30
Marathon Be
1.96
Under
Marathon Be
1.75
WilliamHill
1.57
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.38
Tortona total 83.5
Over 83.5
63.5%
@ 1.57+4.3pp
Under 83.5
36.5%
@ 2.40-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
WilliamHill
1.57
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
WilliamHill
2.30
Betano
2.20
1xBet
1.93
Tortona total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
48.2%
@ 2.10+2.9pp
Under 87.5
51.8%
@ 1.83-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.99
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.73
Betano
1.67
WilliamHill
1.67
1xBet
1.49
Tortona total 91.5
Over 91.5
33.2%
@ 2.87+0.6pp
Under 91.5
66.8%
@ 1.43-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.87
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.28
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Cantu's side (positive = Cantu win). Pythia's expected margin is -2.6; Cantu win by 1+ in 36% of simulations.
Spread Cantu +0.5
KAN +0.5
40.9%
TOR -0.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
KAN
No market prices yet.
TOR
No market prices yet.
Spread Cantu +3.5 · main line
KAN +3.5
51.3%
@ 1.93+0.6pp
TOR -3.5
48.7%
@ 1.95-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
KAN
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
TOR
Marathon Be
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
SBO
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Spread Cantu +6.5
KAN +6.5
62.4%
@ 1.62+2.4pp
TOR -6.5
37.6%
@ 2.37-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
KAN
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.42
TOR
1xBet
2.37
Marathon Be
2.31
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.20
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
CantuTortona
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Cantu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
KAN win
43.8%
@ 2.18+0.4pp
TOR win
56.2%
@ 1.67-0.4pp
2nd half Spread Cantu +1 · main line
KAN +1
48.1%
@ 1.90-1.6pp
TOR -1
51.9%
@ 1.88+1.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 84 · main line
Over
54.6%
@ 1.83+4.0pp
Under
45.4%
@ 1.91-4.0pp
Cantu 2nd half total 40.5 · main line
Over
57.5%
@ 1.87+7.5pp
Under
42.5%
@ 1.90-7.5pp
Tortona 2nd half total 43 · main line
Over
52.2%
@ 1.88+3.1pp
Under
47.8%
@ 1.86-3.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 82.75
Over
59.8%
@ 1.83+10.3pp
Under
40.2%
@ 1.80-10.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 85.25
Over
49.0%
@ 1.90+1.4pp
Under
51.0%
@ 1.73-1.4pp
2nd half Spread Cantu 0
KAN 0
43.8%
@ 2.01-4.0pp
TOR 0
56.2%
@ 1.83+4.0pp
2nd half Spread Cantu +2
KAN +2
52.3%
@ 1.79+0.1pp
TOR -2
47.7%
@ 1.96-0.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 81.5
Over
63.3%
@ 1.64+7.9pp
Under
36.7%
@ 2.20-7.9pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.5
Over
45.3%
@ 2.20+2.8pp
Under
54.7%
@ 1.62-2.8pp
2nd half Spread Cantu -1
KAN -1
39.5%
@ 2.11-4.8pp
TOR +1
60.5%
@ 1.68+4.8pp
2nd half Spread Cantu +3.5
KAN +3.5
58.3%
@ 1.57+2.0pp
TOR -3.5
41.7%
@ 2.02-2.0pp
2nd half Spread Cantu -2.5
KAN -2.5
33.9%
@ 2.34-3.9pp
TOR +2.5
66.1%
@ 1.42+3.9pp
2nd half Spread Cantu +4.5
KAN +4.5
62.3%
@ 1.49+3.1pp
TOR -4.5
37.7%
@ 2.17-3.1pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
KAN
42.0%
@ 2.22-0.5pp
Draw
4.1%
@ 21.00-0.9pp
TOR
53.9%
@ 1.76+1.2pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cantutheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Cantu: 87.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.8
23.3
55.7%
54.3%
46.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.0
8.9
35.6%
34.3%
26.7
🏀Free throws
18.2
14.1
77.5%
74.6%
14.1
Their opponents take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Tortonatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Tortona: 88.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.1
20.1
54.2%
54.3%
40.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.3
10.5
38.5%
34.3%
31.5
🏀Free throws
22.2
17.0
76.6%
74.6%
17.0
Their opponents take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cantutheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Cantu: 88.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.5 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.5
22.8
54.8%
54.3%
45.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.2
9.3
37.0%
34.3%
27.9
🏀Free throws
18.3
14.5
79.3%
74.6%
14.5
Their opponents take 66.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Tortonatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Tortona: 85.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.2
20.3
53.1%
54.3%
40.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.5
9.7
35.4%
34.3%
29.2
🏀Free throws
20.6
15.4
74.6%
74.6%
15.4
Their opponents take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cantu
LLLLLLLLLW
Tortona
LWLLWLWLLL
#16
League position
#12
-10.7
Net rating
-8.6
90.1
Offensive rating
95.7
100.9
Defensive rating
104.3
51.1%
Effective FG%
49.6%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
16.8%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.37
34.1%
3-point %
31.2%
61.2%
Assist %
52.0%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%
Profile
■ Cantu■ Tortona
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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