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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 29 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Scheduled
Position#16
Record4-4
FormLWWWL
Points / game117.2
Allowed / game118.2
vs
Position#19
Record5-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game122.7
Allowed / game121.9
USANBA· Rocket Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Cleveland Cavaliers v Miami Heat
29 Mar 2027
CLE v MIA
upcoming
29 Nov 2026
CLE v MIA
upcoming
27 Mar 2026
CLE149
MIA128
25 Mar 2026
CLE103
MIA120
13 Jul 2025
CLE92
MIA72
23 Apr 2025
CLE121
MIA112
20 Apr 2025
CLE121
MIA100
05 Mar 2025
CLE112
MIA107
20 Mar 2024
CLE104
MIA107
22 Nov 2023
CLE96
MIA129
31 Jan 2023
CLE97
MIA100
20 Nov 2022
CLE113
MIA87
13 Dec 2021
CLE105
MIA94
01 May 2021
CLE107
MIA124
24 Feb 2020
CLE125
MIA119
14 Nov 2019
CLE97
MIA108
25 Jan 2019
CLE94
MIA100
02 Jan 2019
CLE92
MIA117
31 Jan 2018
CLE91
MIA89
28 Nov 2017
CLE108
MIA97
06 Mar 2017
CLE98
MIA106
09 Dec 2016
CLE114
MIA84
30 Oct 2015
CLE102
MIA92
02 Apr 2015
CLE114
MIA88
11 Feb 2015
CLE113
MIA93
18 Jul 2014
CLE95
MIA90
18 Mar 2014
CLE96
MIA100
27 Nov 2013
CLE84
MIA95
20 Jul 2013
CLE76
MIA82
15 Apr 2013
CLE95
MIA96
20 Mar 2013
CLE95
MIA98
17 Feb 2012
CLE87
MIA111
29 Mar 2011
CLE102
MIA90
02 Dec 2010
CLE90
MIA118
04 Feb 2010
CLE102
MIA86
07 Mar 2009
CLE99
MIA89
28 Dec 2008
CLE93
MIA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cleveland Cavaliers win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Cleveland Cavaliers
4.6out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 117.1
118.0▲ 0.9
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 114.7
117.0▲ 2.3
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 59%
59%▼ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 27.0
26.0▼ 1.0
🔥 Form · Miami Heat
4.5out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 120.9
120.8▼ 0.1
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 119.5
119.6▲ 0.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 58%
55%▼ 3%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 28.8
27.0▼ 1.8
Cleveland CavaliersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
108-121
108
121
-13
H24/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
93-130
93
130
-37
H26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
113-124
113
124
-11
H08/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
W
119-105
119
105
+14
H11/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
116-132
116
132
-16
A13/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#8
L
106-114
106
114
-8
A22/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
125-121
125
121
+4
H24/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
W
127-125 OT
127
125
+2
H26/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
121-111
121
111
+10
H28/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
L
111-114
111
114
-3
A30/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-37
27-23
28-31
26-30
26-38
23-30
22-30
22-32
29-32
33-39
34-28
17-25
32-28
29-22
29-25
29-30
28-35
24-37
31-36
33-24
35-18
34-27
21-37
16-32
35-30
33-24
28-26
29-41
24-31
26-29
36-26
27-27
34-42
25-27
33-23
29-19
28-16
16-30
38-43
29-25
233.6Avg total
113.9Scored
119.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)117.2118.2235.5-1.050%
Season at home (5)121.0117.2238.2+3.880%
Season away (3)111.0120.0231.0-9.00%
Last 10 (10)113.9119.7233.6-5.840%
Last 5 (5)118.0117.0235.0+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)107.9113.6221.5-5.636%
vs Similar ◀ (14)113.9113.9227.7+0.057%
vs Weaker (2)136.0121.5257.5+14.5100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
128-118
128
118
+10
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
124-125
124
125
-1
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
144-128
144
128
+16
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
115-136
115
136
-21
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
106-131
106
131
-25
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
111-128
111
128
-17
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
109-113
109
113
-4
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
129-117
129
117
+12
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
145-125
145
125
+20
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-36
40-28
20-32
35-22
23-24
33-36
28-31
40-34
35-29
34-37
43-37
32-25
36-34
29-36
30-38
20-28
32-34
27-35
22-30
25-32
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
245.7Avg total
122.1Scored
123.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)122.7121.9244.6+0.845%
Season at home (7)123.9124.0247.9-0.143%
Season away (4)120.8118.2239.0+2.550%
Last 10 (10)122.1123.6245.7-1.540%
Last 5 (5)120.8119.6240.4+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)120.0124.9244.9-4.938%
vs Similar ◀ (16)122.3124.2246.6-1.938%
vs Weaker (6)130.3122.8253.2+7.567%
This opponent (Cleveland Cavaliers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +3.3+3.3
Cleveland CavaliersMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Cleveland CavaliersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
54-60
54
60
-6
H24/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
49-68
49
68
-19
H26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
62-71
62
71
-9
H08/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
W
61-50
61
50
+11
H11/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
52-72
52
72
-20
A13/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#8
W
69-45
69
45
+24
A22/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
68-54
68
54
+14
H24/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
50-60
50
60
-10
H26/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H28/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A30/10
NBA
116.3Avg total
56.8Scored
59.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.056.6111.6-1.633%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.958.6116.4-0.738%-
Last 30 away (14)51.754.3106.0-2.629%-
Last 10 (10)56.859.5116.3-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)58.054.8112.8+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)52.055.9107.9-3.921%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)56.456.9113.2-0.536%-
vs Weaker (2)66.559.5126.0+7.0100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
125.2Avg total
62.2Scored
63.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.462.6124.9-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)63.162.6125.6+0.553%-
Last 30 away (13)61.562.5124.0-1.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.263.0125.2-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)60.060.2120.2-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)61.963.6125.5-1.838%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)59.962.6122.5-2.644%-
vs Weaker (6)69.561.2130.7+8.367%-
This opponent (Cleveland Cavaliers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cleveland Cavalierstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cleveland Cavaliers: 110.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.226.3
54.6%
54.0%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.412.7
33.1%
34.9%38.1
🏀 Free throws25.919.5
75.3%
76.2%19.5
They take 86.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.630.2
56.3%
54.0%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.713.6
34.3%
34.9%40.8
🏀 Free throws26.619.3
72.6%
76.2%19.3
They take 93.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cleveland Cavaliers
LWWWLLWLLL
Miami Heat
WWLLLLLWLW
#16
League position
#19
-8.6
Net rating
-1.0
101.0
Offensive rating
105.1
109.6
Defensive rating
106.1
52.4%
Effective FG%
54.2%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
55.2%
15.0%
Turnover %
12.7%
11.0%
Off. rebound %
10.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.29
33.1%
3-point %
34.3%
60.5%
Assist %
66.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence101.0 · 105.1Defence109.6 · 106.1Shooting52.4% · 54.2%3-point %33.1% · 34.3%Ball care15.0% · 12.7%Off. rebounds11.0% · 10.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Cleveland Cavaliers   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Cleveland Cavaliers wins
2
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26AAtlanta Hawks111-114
28/10/26HWashington Wizards121-111
26/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves127-125 OT
24/10/26HBrooklyn Nets125-121
22/10/26APhiladelphia 76ers106-114
13/10/26AOrlando Magic116-132
11/10/26HOrlando Magic119-105
08/10/26HBoston Celtics113-124
26/05/26HNew York Knicks93-130
24/05/26HNew York Knicks108-121
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
21/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves106-131
16/10/26AOrlando Magic115-136
14/10/26HBrooklyn Nets144-128
11/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves124-125
08/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans128-118

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL50%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %50%80%0%
Points / game117.2121.0111.0
Allowed / game118.2117.2120.0
Point differential-1.0+3.8-9.0
Avg total235.5238.2231.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%20%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW45%
HomeWLLLW43%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %45%43%50%
Points / game122.7123.9120.8
Allowed / game121.9124.0118.2
Point differential+0.8-0.1+2.5
Avg total244.6247.9239.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%43%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics98189%123.4110.0+13.4
2 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Atlanta Hawks117464%120.7115.7+5.0
7 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
8 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
9 Minnesota Timberwolves127558%118.8112.4+6.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Orlando Magic95456%116.0117.8-1.8
12 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
13 Toronto Raptors105550%119.6111.5+8.1
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Washington Wizards105550%111.6111.3+0.3
16 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
17 Dallas Mavericks105550%114.3115.7-1.4
18 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
19 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
20 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
21 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
22 Charlotte Hornets104640%97.0108.0-11.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
26 Indiana Pacers103730%117.9119.2-1.3
27 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
28 New York Knicks113827%106.5115.2-8.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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