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Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 16 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 136-115
34-36 36-29 38-30 28-20
Position#6
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game119.7
Allowed / game117.7
vs
Position#17
Record3-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game131.2
Allowed / game119.0
USANBA· Kia Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Orlando Magic v Miami Heat
05 Apr 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
12 Feb 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
16 Oct 2026
ORL136
MIA115
05 Dec 2025
ORL106
MIA105
22 Oct 2025
ORL125
MIA121
12 Oct 2025
ORL120
MIA104
26 Dec 2024
ORL88
MIA89
21 Dec 2024
ORL121
MIA114
21 Jan 2024
ORL105
MIA87
20 Dec 2023
ORL106
MIA115
11 Mar 2023
ORL126
MIA114
11 Feb 2023
ORL103
MIA107
10 Apr 2022
ORL125
MIA111
17 Dec 2021
ORL105
MIA115
14 Mar 2021
ORL97
MIA102
23 Dec 2020
ORL113
MIA107
01 Feb 2020
ORL89
MIA102
03 Jan 2020
ORL105
MIA85
17 Oct 2019
ORL98
MIA107
23 Dec 2018
ORL91
MIA115
17 Oct 2018
ORL104
MIA101
30 Dec 2017
ORL111
MIA117
18 Oct 2017
ORL116
MIA109
07 Oct 2017
ORL93
MIA90
03 Mar 2017
ORL110
MIA99
26 Oct 2016
ORL96
MIA108
08 Apr 2016
ORL112
MIA109
26 Dec 2015
ORL101
MIA108
13 Oct 2015
ORL95
MIA92
25 Feb 2015
ORL90
MIA93
22 Nov 2014
ORL92
MIA99
04 Jan 2014
ORL94
MIA110
20 Nov 2013
ORL92
MIA120
09 Jul 2013
ORL80
MIA94
25 Mar 2013
ORL94
MIA108
31 Dec 2012
ORL110
MIA112
13 Mar 2012
ORL104
MIA98
08 Feb 2012
ORL102
MIA89
21 Dec 2011
ORL104
MIA100
03 Feb 2011
ORL100
MIA104
24 Nov 2010
ORL104
MIA95
28 Feb 2010
ORL96
MIA80
25 Nov 2009
ORL98
MIA99
22 Feb 2009
ORL122
MIA99
02 Jan 2009
ORL86
MIA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
112-101
112
101
+11
A19/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
83-98
83
98
-15
A22/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
113-105
113
105
+8
H25/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H28/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
109-116
109
116
-7
A29/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
79-93
79
93
-14
H01/05
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
94-116
94
116
-22
A03/05
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#1
W
122-118
122
118
+4
A08/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
L
105-119
105
119
-14
A11/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
W
132-116
132
116
+16
H13/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-27
20-24
26-23
31-27
21-25
25-21
16-38
21-14
26-26
35-28
26-25
26-26
26-27
28-25
21-17
19-19
26-38
34-28
19-23
30-27
25-26
35-12
11-24
8-31
22-20
27-40
15-23
30-33
36-26
28-35
30-26
28-31
28-32
22-29
25-29
30-29
35-28
37-24
36-31
24-33
211.3Avg total
104.3Scored
107.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)119.7117.7237.3+2.067%
Season at home (1)132.0116.0248.0+16.0100%
Season away (2)113.5118.5232.0-5.050%
Last 10 (10)104.3107.0211.3-2.750%
Last 5 (5)106.4112.4218.8-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)104.1106.2210.3-2.145%
vs Similar ◀ (13)113.0118.9231.9-5.938%
vs Weaker (6)126.7119.0245.7+7.783%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#30
W
152-136
152
136
+16
H04/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
95-121
95
121
-26
A07/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
114-128
114
128
-14
A09/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
140-117
140
117
+23
A10/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
143-117
143
117
+26
H12/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
126-127 OT
126
127
-1
A14/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
129-105
129
105
+24
A03/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
W
128-118
128
118
+10
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
124-125
124
125
-1
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
144-128
144
128
+16
H14/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-32
41-25
45-34
30-45
27-32
24-32
25-30
19-27
26-32
24-37
40-33
24-26
34-23
38-29
33-33
35-32
33-24
37-37
29-23
44-33
24-26
30-26
29-37
31-25
41-23
35-32
19-25
34-25
33-36
40-28
20-32
35-22
23-24
33-36
28-31
40-34
35-29
34-37
43-37
32-25
251.7Avg total
129.5Scored
122.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)131.2119.0250.2+12.275%
Season at home (3)132.0123.7255.7+8.367%
Season away (1)129.0105.0234.0+24.0100%
Last 10 (10)129.5122.2251.7+7.360%
Last 5 (5)130.2120.6250.8+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)122.8124.6247.4-1.840%
vs Similar ◀ (16)121.8122.7244.4-0.944%
vs Weaker (9)130.6119.8250.3+10.878%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +3.0+3.0
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
55-51
55
51
+4
A19/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A22/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
61-54
61
54
+7
H25/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
54-52
54
52
+2
H28/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A29/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
60-38
60
38
+22
H01/05
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
49-60
49
60
-11
A03/05
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#1
W
64-61
64
61
+3
A08/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A11/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
W
72-52
72
52
+20
H13/10
NBA
111.2Avg total
57.1Scored
54.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.757.3117.0+2.460%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.754.0116.7+8.786%-
Last 30 away (16)57.060.2117.2-3.238%-
Last 10 (10)57.154.1111.2+3.060%-
Last 5 (5)59.054.4113.4+4.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)57.253.3110.5+3.964%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)60.260.6120.8-0.546%-
vs Weaker (6)63.257.5120.7+5.783%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#30
W
77-57
77
57
+20
H04/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
51-64
51
64
-13
A07/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
50-69
50
69
-19
A09/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
72-52
72
52
+20
A10/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
70-61
70
61
+9
H12/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
54-52
54
52
+2
A14/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
76-55
76
55
+21
A03/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H14/10
NBA
124.8Avg total
64.8Scored
60.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.462.1124.6+0.350%-
Last 30 at home (17)64.361.5125.8+2.865%-
Last 30 away (13)60.062.9122.9-2.931%-
Last 10 (10)64.860.0124.8+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)65.659.4125.0+6.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)62.863.8126.6-1.040%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)58.862.7121.4-3.938%-
vs Weaker (9)68.860.2129.0+8.678%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 104.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.423.3
47.2%
54.0%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.512.7
34.8%
34.9%38.1
🏀 Free throws27.119.6
72.3%
76.4%19.6
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 129.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.832.1
59.7%
54.0%64.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.015.5
39.7%
34.9%46.5
🏀 Free throws24.418.8
77.0%
76.4%18.8
They take 92.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Orlando Magic
WLWLLLWWLW
Miami Heat
WLWWLWWLLW
#6
League position
#17
+0.4
Net rating
+6.5
103.9
Offensive rating
116.0
103.5
Defensive rating
109.5
49.3%
Effective FG%
59.6%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
13.9%
Turnover %
12.4%
33.1%
Off. rebound %
26.9%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.8%
3-point %
39.7%
65.6%
Assist %
70.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.9 · 116.0Defence103.5 · 109.5Shooting49.3% · 59.6%3-point %34.8% · 39.7%Ball care13.9% · 12.4%Off. rebounds33.1% · 26.9%Free throws0.32 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Orlando Magic   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Orlando Magic wins
2
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/10/26HCleveland Cavaliers132-116
11/10/26ACleveland Cavaliers105-119
08/10/26AMemphis Grizzlies122-118
03/05/26ADetroit Pistons94-116
01/05/26HDetroit Pistons79-93
29/04/26ADetroit Pistons109-116
28/04/26HDetroit Pistons94-88
25/04/26HDetroit Pistons113-105
22/04/26ADetroit Pistons83-98
19/04/26ADetroit Pistons112-101
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/10/26HBrooklyn Nets144-128
11/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves124-125
08/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans128-118
03/10/26AToronto Raptors129-105
14/04/26ACharlotte Hornets126-127 OT
12/04/26HAtlanta Hawks143-117
10/04/26AWashington Wizards140-117
09/04/26AToronto Raptors114-128
07/04/26AToronto Raptors95-121
04/04/26HWashington Wizards152-136

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Orlando Magic
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game119.7132.0113.5
Allowed / game117.7116.0118.5
Point differential+2.0+16.0-5.0
Avg total237.3248.0232.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLW75%
HomeWLW67%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%67%100%
Points / game131.2132.0129.0
Allowed / game119.0123.7105.0
Point differential+12.2+8.3+24.0
Avg total250.2255.7234.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%67%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics330100%127.3104.0+23.3
2 Portland Trail Blazers220100%116.5108.0+8.5
3 Miami Heat43175%131.2119.0+12.2
4 Brooklyn Nets43175%124.2116.0+8.2
5 Atlanta Hawks43175%119.5118.8+0.8
6 Houston Rockets32167%122.0112.7+9.3
7 Detroit Pistons32167%115.0109.0+6.0
8 Utah Jazz32167%111.3107.7+3.7
9 Memphis Grizzlies32167%118.0115.0+3.0
10 Los Angeles Clippers32167%110.7108.3+2.3
11 Orlando Magic32167%119.7117.7+2.0
12 New Orleans Pelicans32167%111.7111.7+0.0
13 Washington Wizards32167%115.7116.0-0.3
14 Golden State Warriors53260%111.0104.0+7.0
15 Minnesota Timberwolves53260%116.2115.2+1.0
16 Toronto Raptors42250%121.8113.8+8.0
17 Chicago Bulls42250%119.2114.5+4.8
18 Denver Nuggets42250%114.2116.2-2.0
19 Los Angeles Lakers42250%107.0109.5-2.5
20 Indiana Pacers31233%117.3115.0+2.3
21 Dallas Mavericks31233%115.3117.0-1.7
22 Cleveland Cavaliers31233%116.0120.3-4.3
23 Philadelphia 76ers31233%111.3118.3-7.0
24 Charlotte Hornets31233%96.0109.3-13.3
25 San Antonio Spurs41325%111.5111.8-0.2
26 Phoenix Suns41325%107.2113.5-6.2
27 Milwaukee Bucks41325%104.8118.0-13.2
28 Oklahoma City Thunder51420%109.8117.0-7.2
29 New York Knicks51420%106.0124.2-18.2
30 Sacramento Kings4040%104.2115.5-11.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Orlando Magic34363828136
Miami Heat36293020115
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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