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Cruzeiro vs Cearense Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Projected 87-74
Projected total 161.8
Scheduled
Position#9
Record3-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game78.8
Vs
87%
13%
■ CRUZ 87%■ CEAR 13%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
6.2/10
Above normal
Position#17
Record1-6
FormLLWLL
Points / game65.6
Allowed / game83.7
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Dona Salome
Other2026-27
Meetings · Cruzeiro v Cearense
16 Nov 2026
CRUZ v CEAR
upcoming
16 Apr 2026
CRUZ86
CEAR77
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Cruzeiro will host Cearense in the NBB on 16 November 2026, with the model rating Cruzeiro as the clear favourite at 87% to win over Cearense's 13% chance, a reflection of Cruzeiro's 3-3 record and 76.2 points per game compared with Cearense's 1-6 record and 65.6 points per game. Cruzeiro has scored 76.2 points per game while conceding 78.8, and has a 1-1 home record with 78.0 points scored and 78.5 points allowed; their last five games include a 78-74 win over Bauru and a 76-68 home win over Pato. Cearense, meanwhile, has struggled on the road, going 0-3 in three away games with 64.7 points scored and 87.3 points allowed, and their last five games feature a lone 65-58 win at home against Paulistano. In previous encounters Cruzeiro has won both meetings, most recently 86-77 on 16 April 2026. The model projects a 87-74 scoreline with 161.8 total points, a home line of -12.5 with a 52% chance of covering, and a 155.0 total line with a 66% probability of the over; an overtime probability of 3% rounds out the outlook.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cruzeiro win
87.4%fair 1.14
Best odds1.19
Implied77.1%
Edge+10.4pp
Cearense win
12.6%fair 7.96
Best odds5.50
Implied22.9%
Edge-10.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CruzeiroBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCruzeiro
Date
Competition
Minas
#3
L
94-99
94
99
-5
92avg 75
A21/04
NBB
Minas
#3
W
97-81
97
81
+16
94avg 75
H24/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
74-101
74
101
-27
63avg 75
H26/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
93-103
93
103
-10
83avg 75
A29/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
72-61
72
61
+11
71avg 75
A17/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
74-83
74
83
-9
66avg 75
A19/10
NBB
Brasilia
#8
L
80-89
80
89
-9
40avg 75
H27/10
NBB
Pato
#15
W
76-68
76
68
+8
60avg 75
H29/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
78-74
78
74
+4
no box
A03/11
NBB
Franca
#6
L
77-98
77
98
-21
no box
A05/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-23
38-33
22-24
18-19
31-21
12-29
22-18
32-13
9-25
28-27
16-29
21-20
16-24
27-19
15-27
35-33
21-20
12-19
19-9
20-13
22-20
18-14
13-29
21-20
21-16
28-16
11-30
20-27
17-17
21-18
19-10
19-23
16-24
23-21
13-15
26-14
14-23
21-22
17-27
25-26
167.2Avg total
81.5Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)76.278.8155.0-2.750%
Season at home (2)78.078.5156.5-0.550%
Season away (4)75.279.0154.2-3.850%
Last 10 (10)81.585.7167.2-4.240%
Last 5 (5)77.082.4159.4-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)83.893.3177.1-9.519%
vs Similar (7)79.779.7159.4+0.043%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)81.674.3155.9+7.386%
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
83-107
83
107
-24
76avg 64
H06/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
56-87
56
87
-31
45avg 64
A14/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
77-86
77
86
-9
64avg 64
A16/04
NBB
Osasco
#16
L
69-93
69
93
-24
55avg 64
H20/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
40avg 64
H22/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
53-96
53
96
-43
no box
A02/11
NBB
Mogi
#2
L
78-89
78
89
-11
no box
A04/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
65-58
65
58
+7
no box
H07/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
L
68-75
68
75
-7
no box
H09/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
no box
A14/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
18-36
22-25
23-23
9-25
21-24
15-24
11-14
23-20
19-23
23-18
12-25
17-32
23-22
13-18
16-21
15-24
17-22
18-26
13-26
11-27
12-31
15-24
15-14
21-11
21-22
19-26
17-30
18-15
10-14
25-16
12-13
16-19
17-15
17-23
18-18
18-17
11-23
16-14
18-23
154.1Avg total
67.5Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)65.683.7149.3-18.114%
Season at home (4)66.281.0147.2-14.825%
Season away (3)64.787.3152.0-22.70%
Last 10 (10)67.586.6154.1-19.110%
Last 5 (5)65.479.0144.4-13.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)70.789.2159.9-18.48%
vs Similar (4)78.077.2155.2+0.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cruzeiro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150
Over 150
76.9%
Under 150
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 155 · main line
Over 155
66.3%
@ 1.89+16.8pp
Under 155
33.7%
@ 1.85-16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Over/Under 160
Over 160
54.2%
Under 160
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Cruzeiro total 81.5
Over 81.5
72.7%
@ 1.57+14.4pp
Under 81.5
27.3%
@ 2.20-14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.20
Cruzeiro total 85.5 · main line
Over 85.5
58.0%
@ 2.10+11.6pp
Under 85.5
42.0%
@ 1.76-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.62
Cruzeiro total 89.5
Over 89.5
42.0%
@ 2.60+6.6pp
Under 89.5
58.0%
@ 1.42-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.42
Cearense total 66.5
Over 66.5
77.9%
@ 1.42+13.2pp
Under 66.5
22.1%
@ 2.60-13.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.60
Cearense total 70.5 · main line
Over 70.5
64.4%
@ 1.78+12.9pp
Under 70.5
35.6%
@ 1.90-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.84
Cearense total 74.5
Over 74.5
48.8%
@ 2.42+11.0pp
Under 74.5
51.2%
@ 1.47-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.47

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Cruzeiro -15.5
CRUZ -15.5
41.4%
@ 2.30+1.1pp
CEAR +15.5
58.6%
@ 1.60-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
CRUZ
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.15
CEAR
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.55
Spread Cruzeiro -12.5 · main line
CRUZ -12.5
52.1%
@ 1.91+3.1pp
CEAR +12.5
47.9%
@ 1.91-3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
CRUZ
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.74
CEAR
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Spread Cruzeiro -9.5
CRUZ -9.5
62.7%
@ 1.57+4.4pp
CEAR +9.5
37.3%
@ 2.20-4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
CRUZ
Betano
1.57
CEAR
Betano
2.20

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -4.5-4.5Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: -6.3-6.3Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -5.2-5.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -4.5-4.5Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: -6.3-6.3Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -5.2-5.2
CruzeiroCearense
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CruzeiroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#3
L
54-56
54
56
-2
A21/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H24/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
37-52
37
52
-15
H26/04
NBB
Minas
#3
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A29/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A17/10
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A19/10
NBB
Brasilia
#8
W
49-32
49
32
+17
H27/10
NBB
Pato
#15
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H29/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A03/11
NBB
Franca
#6
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A05/11
NBB
84.2Avg total
41.1Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)40.342.683.0-2.343%60%
Last 30 at home (11)42.941.184.0+1.864%73%
Last 30 away (19)38.843.582.4-4.732%53%
Last 10 (10)41.143.184.2-2.030%70%
Last 5 (5)40.238.278.4+2.060%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)40.746.787.4-6.025%81%
vs Similar (7)42.637.379.9+5.371%57%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)37.338.776.0-1.457%14%
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
38-59
38
59
-21
H06/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A14/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A16/04
NBB
Osasco
#16
L
40-54
40
54
-14
H20/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H22/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
23-58
23
58
-35
A02/11
NBB
Mogi
#2
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A04/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H07/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H09/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A14/11
NBB
78.2Avg total
33.7Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)35.443.879.2-8.323%50%
Last 30 at home (15)35.641.977.5-6.327%33%
Last 30 away (15)35.345.780.9-10.420%67%
Last 10 (10)33.744.578.2-10.810%50%
Last 5 (5)31.038.869.8-7.820%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)34.944.679.5-9.719%54%
vs Similar (4)38.838.277.0+0.550%25%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cruzeiro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
CRUZ win
no forecast
@ 1.26
CEAR win
no forecast
@ 4.34
1st half Spread Cruzeiro -7 · main line
CRUZ -7
no forecast
@ 1.88
CEAR +7
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 78.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Cruzeiro 1st half total 44.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Cearense 1st half total 35.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.96
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 77
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Cruzeiro -8
CRUZ -8
no forecast
@ 2.08
CEAR +8
no forecast
@ 1.68
1st half Spread Cruzeiro -6
CRUZ -6
no forecast
@ 1.71
CEAR +6
no forecast
@ 2.03
1st half Over/Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.20
1st half Spread Cruzeiro -9
CRUZ -9
no forecast
@ 2.15
CEAR +9
no forecast
@ 1.64
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
CRUZ
no forecast
@ 1.29
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
CEAR
no forecast
@ 4.37

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
CRUZ win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
CEAR win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CRUZ leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 151.573.5%1.60
Betano
1.60
----+16.1pp
Over 150.575.5%1.53
Betano
1.53
----+15.7pp
Cruzeiro over 80.575.9%1.50
Betano
1.50
----+14.7pp
Cearense over 66.577.9%1.42
Betano
1.42
----+13.2pp
Cruzeiro -4.578.5%1.31
Betano
1.31
----+8.5pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 17 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cruzeirotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cruzeiro: 77.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.320.4
50.6%
49.8%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.68.0
33.9%
31.6%24.0
🏀 Free throws17.713.1
74.0%
71.3%13.1
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.718.7
44.8%
49.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.0
29.2%
31.6%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.316.1
66.3%
71.3%16.1
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cruzeiro
LWWLLWLLWL
Cearense
LLWLLLLLLL
#9
League position
#17
+1.2
Net rating
-21.2
92.4
Offensive rating
82.4
91.2
Defensive rating
103.6
50.7%
Effective FG%
44.4%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
58.5%
15.3%
Turnover %
16.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.37
33.9%
3-point %
29.2%
73.9%
Assist %
54.1%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence92.4 · 82.4Defence91.2 · 103.6Shooting50.7% · 44.4%3-point %33.9% · 29.2%Ball care15.3% · 16.2%Free throws0.28 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)40% · 10%
■ Cruzeiro   ■ Cearense
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Cruzeiro wins
0
Cearense wins
DateGameScore
16/04/26Cruzeiro v Cearense86-77
29/12/25Cearense v Cruzeiro78-86
Cruzeirolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26AFranca77-98
03/11/26ABauru78-74
29/10/26HPato76-68
27/10/26HBrasilia80-89
19/10/26AUniao Corinthians74-83
17/10/26ACaxias do Sul72-61
29/04/26AMinas93-103
26/04/26HMinas74-101
24/04/26HMinas97-81
21/04/26AMinas94-99
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AMinas63-77
09/11/26HCorinthians Paulista68-75
07/11/26HPaulistano65-58
04/11/26AMogi78-89
02/11/26ASao Jose53-96
22/10/26HPinheiros63-98
20/10/26HOsasco69-93
16/04/26ACruzeiro77-86
14/04/26AMinas56-87
06/04/26HCaxias do Sul83-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cruzeiro
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL50%
HomeLW50%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game76.278.075.2
Allowed / game78.878.579.0
Point differential-2.7-0.5-3.8
Avg total155.0156.5154.2
Over 15550%50%50%
Win by 10+17%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Cearense
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL14%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %14%25%0%
Points / game65.666.264.7
Allowed / game83.781.087.3
Point differential-18.1-14.8-22.7
Avg total149.3147.2152.0
Over 15543%50%33%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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