Dayton faces Cincinnati on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Dayton as the favourite and projecting a 64% chance of a win. Dayton has a 1-2 record from all three games this season, averaging 84.7 points and allowing 79.3, and has won once at home, also 1-2, with an average of 84.7 points and 79.3 allowed; their last five games include two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 89-58 victory over NJIT at home and defeats to Siena 89-99 and Northern Illinois 76-81. Cincinnati, meanwhile, stands 2-1 overall, scoring 73.7 and conceding 60.0, and has won three of its last five games, with recent home wins over Wisc. Green Bay 81-64 and American University 79-53 and a narrow loss to Minnesota 61-63. In the three meetings between the teams, Cincinnati has won twice, most recently beating Dayton 74-62 on 11 November 2025. The model assigns a 64% probability to a Dayton win, 36% to Cincinnati, projects a 73-69 score and a total of 141.8 points, with Dayton covering the 7.0-point line 83% of the time and the over on the 147.5 line 36% of the time, while an overtime scenario carries a 5% chance. The game will be decided by Dayton's ability to maintain its offensive edge against Cincinnati's tighter defence.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dayton winLost
63.8%fair 1.57
Best odds3.17
Implied30.3%
Edge+33.5pp
Cincinnati winWon
36.2%fair 2.76
Best odds1.38
Implied69.7%
Edge-33.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
50.2%
@ 1.47-13.2pp
Under 141.5
49.8%
@ 2.60+13.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
38.3%
@ 1.91-11.5pp
Under 146.5
61.7%
@ 1.90+11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
27.5%
@ 2.60-9.7pp
Under 151.5
72.5%
@ 1.50+9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Dayton total 66.5Actual: Dayton over 66.5
Over 66.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
Under 66.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.57
Dayton total 71 · main lineActual: Dayton over 71
Over 71
57.7%
@ 1.87+8.0pp
Under 71
42.3%
@ 1.85-8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Dayton total 75Actual: Dayton under 75
Over 75
41.5%
Under 75
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cincinnati total 73Actual: Cincinnati over 73
Over 73
33.8%
Under 73
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cincinnati total 77 · main lineActual: Cincinnati over 77
Over 77
20.9%
@ 1.87-28.9pp
Under 77
79.1%
@ 1.85+28.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Cincinnati total 80.5Actual: Cincinnati over 80.5
Over 80.5
13.3%
@ 2.62-22.2pp
Under 80.5
86.7%
@ 1.50+22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Dayton +3Actual: Cincinnati -3
DAYT +3
72.2%
@ 2.40+33.1pp
CINC -3
27.8%
@ 1.54-33.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Bet365
2.40
CINC
Bet365
1.54
Spread Dayton +6 · main lineActual: Cincinnati -6
DAYT +6
80.8%
@ 1.93+30.7pp
CINC -6
19.2%
@ 1.93-30.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
CINC
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.78
Spread Dayton +9Actual: Cincinnati -9
DAYT +9
87.3%
@ 1.58+26.8pp
CINC -9
12.7%
@ 2.42-26.8pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
CINC
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DaytonCincinnati
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Dayton +4
75.2%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
Dayton +3.5
72.9%
2.30
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
-
-
+33.4pp
Lost
Dayton +3
72.2%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+33.1pp
Lost
Dayton +5
78.1%
2.08
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+32.7pp
Lost
Dayton +4.5
76.0%
2.14
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Dayton +2.5
70.2%
2.45
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 74.5
70.8%
2.33
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.10
-
-
+32.0pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 78
81.8%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Lost
Dayton +5.5
78.7%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
1xBet
1.83
+31.1pp
Lost
Dayton +6
80.8%
1.91
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
+30.7pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 77
79.1%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+28.9pp
Lost
Dayton +6.5
81.3%
1.84
Bet365
1.89
BetVictor
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
+28.6pp
Lost
Dayton +7
83.2%
1.76
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.74
-
+28.3pp
Lost
Dayton +9
87.3%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Dayton +7.5
83.6%
1.71
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
+26.7pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 78.5
82.3%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Dayton +8
85.4%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.63
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Dayton +8.5
85.7%
1.60
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.55
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Dayton +10
89.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Dayton +9.5
87.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Lost
Dayton +11
90.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 77.5
79.7%
1.78
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.70
+24.3pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 76.5
76.9%
1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+24.2pp
Lost
Dayton +10.5
89.2%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 75.5
74.0%
1.92
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Dayton +12
91.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
Dayton +11.5
90.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 80.5
86.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Cincinnati under 79.5
84.6%
1.49
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
+22.1pp
Lost
Dayton +13
92.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Dayton +12.5
91.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Dayton +14.5
94.0%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Lost
Dayton +13.5
93.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Dayton +14
93.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Dayton +16.5
95.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
Under 156
81.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Under 155.5
79.8%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Dayton +21.5
98.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Under 150.5
70.5%
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.63
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Under 155
79.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
Under 151.5
72.5%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Under 151
72.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Under 152.5
74.5%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Under 154.5
78.1%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Lost
Under 152
74.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Under 153
75.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Under 153.5
76.4%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Under 154
77.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Under 157.5
83.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Under 156.5
81.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Under 162.5
89.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 172.5
96.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 167.5
93.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.9%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
96.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
92.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Under 161.5
88.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Dayton under 89.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Dayton under 87.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Dayton under 85.5
89.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Over 121.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Dayton under 83.5
85.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Over 122.5
87.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Dayton under 80.5
77.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Dayton under 81.5
80.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Dayton under 79.5
74.2%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Over 126.5
82.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
80.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Cincinnati over 58.5
84.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Cincinnati over 59.5
81.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Cincinnati +13.5
79.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
73.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Cincinnati over 60.5
79.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Cincinnati over 61.5
76.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
71.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Cincinnati over 62.5
73.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-17.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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