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Dayton vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 17 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 97-69
42-31 55-38
Position#65
Record8-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game79.7
Allowed / game71.0
Dayton 🏆
USA
vs
Position#167
Record5-5
FormWLLLL
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game80.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dayton winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DaytonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMBC Retrievers
#43
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H08/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A12/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
91-82
91
82
+9
H16/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
77-71 OT
77
71
+6
A20/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
74-55
74
55
+19
H22/11
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
84-79 OT
84
79
+5
H28/11
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
79-83
79
83
-4
H29/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
88-71
88
71
+17
H03/12
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
73-86
73
86
-13
A06/12
NCAA
North Florida
#361
W
84-61
84
61
+23
H14/12
NCAA
1H
2H
41-37
36-34
26-33
36-41
45-39
46-43
39-34
29-34
44-20
30-35
40-31
29-38
36-30
43-53
46-38
42-33
33-37
40-49
46-23
38-38
152.2Avg total
78.9Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)79.771.0150.7+8.773%
Season at home (8)83.168.8151.9+14.488%
Season away (3)70.777.0147.7-6.333%
Last 10 (10)78.973.3152.2+5.670%
Last 5 (5)81.676.0157.6+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.878.6152.4-4.840%
vs Similar ◀ (16)74.072.4146.4+1.662%
vs Weaker (8)81.666.6148.2+15.088%
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alcorn State
#348
W
108-76
108
76
+32
H05/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H08/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
76-78
76
78
-2
A12/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
87-73
87
73
+14
H19/11
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
98-72
98
72
+26
H21/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
89-59
89
59
+30
H26/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
59-95
59
95
-36
H28/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
73-107
73
107
-34
H03/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
95-103
95
103
-8
H13/12
NCAA
1H
2H
58-44
50-32
46-30
55-34
40-37
36-41
43-40
44-33
40-29
58-43
35-24
54-35
24-52
35-43
30-49
43-58
33-41
34-41
47-43
48-60
166.2Avg total
85.3Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)85.380.9166.2+4.450%
Season at home (8)88.881.1169.9+7.662%
Season away (2)71.580.0151.5-8.50%
Last 10 (10)85.380.9166.2+4.450%
Last 5 (5)76.689.2165.8-12.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)70.785.7156.3-15.017%
vs Similar ◀ (9)77.974.2152.1+3.756%
vs Weaker (9)82.969.2152.1+13.767%
This opponent (Dayton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.4+7.41st half: +0.7+0.72nd half2nd half: -2.9-2.92nd half: +3.7+3.7
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.4+7.41st half: +0.7+0.72nd half2nd half: -2.9-2.92nd half: +3.7+3.7
DaytonFlorida State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DaytonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMBC Retrievers
#43
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H08/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A12/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H16/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A20/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
44-20
44
20
+24
H22/11
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H28/11
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H29/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H03/12
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A06/12
NCAA
North Florida
#361
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H14/12
NCAA
71.8Avg total
39.6Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.332.969.2+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.932.168.9+4.867%-
Last 30 away (12)35.334.269.5+1.250%-
Last 10 (10)39.632.271.8+7.480%-
Last 5 (5)40.231.872.0+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.834.867.6-2.040%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)34.032.666.6+1.456%-
vs Weaker (8)42.031.673.6+10.475%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alcorn State
#348
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H05/11
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H08/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A12/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H19/11
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H21/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H26/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
24-52
24
52
-28
H28/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
30-49
30
49
-19
H03/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H13/12
NCAA
78.5Avg total
39.6Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.535.669.1-2.150%-
Last 30 at home (19)34.435.269.6-0.858%-
Last 30 away (11)31.836.368.1-4.536%-
Last 10 (10)39.638.978.5+0.770%-
Last 5 (5)33.841.875.6-8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)32.441.774.1-9.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)32.031.063.0+1.067%-
vs Weaker (9)36.332.168.4+4.267%-
This opponent (Dayton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Dayton wins
0
Florida State wins
No previous meetings.
Daytonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/25HNorth Florida84-61
06/12/25AVirginia73-86
03/12/25HEast Tennessee St88-71
29/11/25HBrigham Young79-83
28/11/25HGeorgetown84-79 OT
22/11/25HN. Carolina Central74-55
20/11/25AMarquette77-71 OT
16/11/25HBethune-Cookman91-82
12/11/25ACincinnati62-74
08/11/25HUMBC Retrievers77-71
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25HUMass95-103
07/12/25AHouston67-82
03/12/25HGeorgia73-107
28/11/25HTexas A&M59-95
26/11/25HCSU Bakersfield89-59
21/11/25HGeorgia Southern98-72
19/11/25HUT Martin87-73
12/11/25AFlorida76-78
08/11/25HAlabama State101-64
05/11/25HAlcorn State108-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dayton
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW73%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1183
Win %73%88%33%
Points / game79.783.170.7
Allowed / game71.068.877.0
Point differential+8.7+14.4-6.3
Avg total150.7151.9147.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %18%12%33%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL50%
HomeWWLLL62%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1082
Win %50%62%0%
Points / game85.388.871.5
Allowed / game80.981.180.0
Point differential+4.4+7.6-8.5
Avg total166.2169.9151.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%62%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic 10 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 George Mason1110191%79.564.9+14.5
2 St. Louis Billikens109190%90.970.1+20.8
3 Richmond Spiders109190%85.671.1+14.5
4 St. Bonaventure1210283%77.268.8+8.5
5 Davidson108280%76.467.1+9.3
6 Dayton118373%79.771.0+8.7
7 Fordham128467%76.362.5+13.8
8 George Washington128467%86.875.6+11.2
9 VCU Rams117464%83.770.6+13.1
10 Rhode Island117464%75.568.5+7.0
11 Saint Josephs Hawks106460%75.974.1+1.8
12 Duquesne116555%83.680.4+3.3
13 La Salle114736%67.367.6-0.4
14 Loyola Chicago113827%68.375.9-7.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke11110100%87.760.8+26.9
2 California1110191%82.669.2+13.5
3 Louisville109190%94.368.1+26.2
4 North Carolina109190%81.164.7+16.4
5 Virginia Tech1210283%83.271.9+11.2
6 Miami (FL)119282%87.366.5+20.7
7 Virginia119282%84.171.0+13.1
8 SMU Mustangs119282%88.677.2+11.5
9 Stanford108280%82.373.2+9.1
10 Notre Dame129375%77.368.1+9.2
11 Clemson118373%81.866.4+15.5
12 Wake Forest118373%86.672.7+13.9
13 NC State117464%87.673.1+14.5
14 Syracuse106460%72.665.0+7.6
15 Georgia Tech106460%72.469.2+3.2
16 Florida State105550%85.380.9+4.4
17 Boston College115645%70.467.5+2.9
18 Pittsburgh115645%70.870.2+0.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Dayton425597
Florida State313869
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