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Duke vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 80-79
43-44 37-35
Position#8
Record29-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game62.5
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Florida State
USA
Position#167
Record18-14
FormLWWWW
Points / game80.4
Allowed / game77.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Duke v Florida State
12 Mar 2026
DUKE80
FLOR79
01 Mar 2025
DUKE100
FLOR65
31 Dec 2022
DUKE86
FLOR67
19 Feb 2022
DUKE88
FLOR70
10 Feb 2020
DUKE70
FLOR65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-56
100
56
+44
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
93-64
93
64
+29
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
42-27
25-22
41-29
27-42
35-29
35-25
31-26
36-28
40-24
61-40
35-33
33-30
54-22
46-34
41-26
36-25
47-30
46-34
39-34
37-27
137.4Avg total
78.7Scored
58.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)82.962.5145.4+20.594%
Season at home (19)83.362.0145.3+21.395%
Season away (12)82.463.2145.7+19.292%
Last 10 (10)78.758.7137.4+20.090%
Last 5 (5)82.859.0141.8+23.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)84.362.4146.8+21.993%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
82-79
82
79
+3
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H11/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
92-69
92
69
+23
A14/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-83
73
83
-10
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
75-74
75
74
+1
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
95-89
95
89
+6
H11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-32
41-47
32-32
26-29
39-42
53-27
32-42
48-30
33-36
37-29
32-38
41-45
41-36
39-35
46-30
29-44
45-27
46-51
46-32
49-57
153.7Avg total
79.6Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)80.477.9158.3+2.556%
Season at home (20)83.277.9161.2+5.360%
Season away (12)75.777.8153.5-2.250%
Last 10 (10)79.674.1153.7+5.580%
Last 5 (5)82.879.0161.8+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)70.882.5153.3-11.725%
vs Similar (14)83.579.4162.9+4.164%
vs Weaker (4)86.262.8149.0+23.5100%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.5+12.51st half: +4.0+4.02nd half2nd half: +7.5+7.52nd half: +1.5+1.5
-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.5+12.51st half: +4.0+4.02nd half2nd half: +7.5+7.52nd half: +1.5+1.5
DukeFlorida State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A25/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H28/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H07/03
NCAA
68.5Avg total
40.5Scored
28.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.530.471.9+11.087%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.929.771.6+12.294%-
Last 30 away (12)40.831.572.3+9.375%-
Last 10 (10)40.528.068.5+12.5100%-
Last 5 (5)43.229.072.2+14.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)41.930.672.5+11.386%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H11/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/03
NCAA
73.4Avg total
38.7Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.936.474.3+1.553%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.235.173.2+3.161%-
Last 30 away (12)37.538.576.0-1.042%-
Last 10 (10)38.734.773.4+4.050%-
Last 5 (5)42.032.674.6+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)34.341.776.0-7.325%-
vs Similar (14)40.233.974.1+6.471%-
vs Weaker (4)40.529.870.2+10.875%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Duke wins
1
Florida State wins
DateGameScore
03/01/26Florida State v Duke87-91
02/03/25Duke v Florida State100-65
17/02/24Florida State v Duke67-76
31/12/22Duke v Florida State86-67
19/02/22Duke v Florida State88-70
19/01/22Florida State v Duke79-78 OT
11/02/20Duke v Florida State70-65
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HNorth Carolina76-61
03/03/26ANC State93-64
28/02/26HVirginia77-51
25/02/26ANotre Dame100-56
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
07/02/26ANorth Carolina68-71
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
Florida Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HCalifornia95-89
07/03/26HSMU Mustangs91-78
05/03/26APittsburgh75-74
28/02/26AGeorgia Tech80-71
25/02/26HMiami (FL)73-83
21/02/26AClemson70-65
17/02/26HBoston College80-72
14/02/26AVirginia Tech92-69
11/02/26HVirginia58-61
07/02/26ANotre Dame82-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW94%
HomeWWWWW95%
AwayWLWWW92%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311912
Win %94%95%92%
Points / game82.983.382.4
Allowed / game62.562.063.2
Point differential+20.5+21.3+19.2
Avg total145.4145.3145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%74%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW56%
HomeLWLWW60%
AwayWWWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games322012
Win %56%60%50%
Points / game80.483.275.7
Allowed / game77.977.977.8
Point differential+2.5+5.3-2.2
Avg total158.3161.2153.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%40%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)25% (4)67% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3129294%82.962.5+20.5
2 Virginia3328585%80.169.6+10.5
3 Miami (FL)3225778%82.670.8+11.8
4 North Carolina3124777%79.871.0+8.8
5 Clemson3223972%74.466.2+8.2
6 Louisville33231070%84.872.2+12.6
7 California32211166%77.973.2+4.6
8 Stanford32201262%76.072.7+3.3
9 NC State33201361%83.776.5+7.2
10 SMU Mustangs33201361%84.277.6+6.6
11 Virginia Tech32191359%78.874.9+3.9
12 Florida State32181456%80.477.9+2.5
13 Wake Forest33171652%78.877.1+1.8
14 Syracuse32151747%75.074.2+0.8
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh33132039%70.571.8-1.3
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke433780
Florida State443579
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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