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Florida State vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 20:45
Final 87-91
42-42 45-49
Position#167
Record7-7
FormLLWWL
Points / game83.6
Allowed / game78.4
Florida State
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#8
Record12-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game63.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Florida State v Duke
03 Jan 2026
FLOR87
DUKE91
17 Feb 2024
FLOR67
DUKE76
18 Jan 2022
FLOR79
DUKE78
02 Jan 2021
FLOR v DUKE
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Southern
#142
W
98-72
98
72
+26
H21/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
89-59
89
59
+30
H26/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
59-95
59
95
-36
H28/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
73-107
73
107
-34
H03/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
95-103
95
103
-8
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
69-97
69
97
-28
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
96-49
96
49
+47
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
87-63
87
63
+24
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
40-29
58-43
35-24
54-35
24-52
35-43
30-49
43-58
33-41
34-41
47-43
48-60
31-42
38-55
54-17
42-32
43-21
44-42
34-40
32-39
160.5Avg total
79.9Scored
80.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)83.678.4162.0+5.350%
Season at home (10)89.376.1165.4+13.270%
Season away (4)69.584.0153.5-14.50%
Last 10 (10)79.980.6160.5-0.740%
Last 5 (5)82.678.2160.8+4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)71.085.5156.5-14.518%
vs Similar (11)77.975.3153.2+2.655%
vs Weaker (8)84.066.6150.6+17.462%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
100-62
100
62
+38
H15/11
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H19/11
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
100-42
100
42
+58
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
93-56
93
56
+37
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H03/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
66-60
66
60
+6
A06/12
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
W
97-73
97
73
+24
H16/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
81-82
81
82
-1
H21/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H31/12
NCAA
1H
2H
51-32
49-30
41-33
37-33
47-19
53-23
52-18
41-38
41-35
39-36
36-24
31-42
31-34
35-26
48-45
49-28
46-36
35-46
39-43
46-36
150.4Avg total
84.7Scored
65.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)87.063.8150.8+23.292%
Season at home (10)87.164.0151.1+23.190%
Season away (3)86.763.3150.0+23.3100%
Last 10 (10)84.765.7150.4+19.090%
Last 5 (5)79.272.0151.2+7.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)67.066.0133.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)87.665.4153.0+22.290%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +1.3+1.31st half: +11.3+11.32nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: +7.7+7.7
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +1.3+1.31st half: +11.3+11.32nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: +7.7+7.7
Florida StateDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Southern
#142
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H21/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H26/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
24-52
24
52
-28
H28/11
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
30-49
30
49
-19
H03/12
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
54-17
54
17
+37
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A31/12
NCAA
72.9Avg total
37.1Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.335.269.5-1.050%-
Last 30 at home (19)35.833.569.4+2.363%-
Last 30 away (11)31.538.269.7-6.627%-
Last 10 (10)37.135.872.9+1.350%-
Last 5 (5)41.832.674.4+9.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)32.742.575.3-9.827%-
vs Similar (11)32.931.164.0+1.864%-
vs Weaker (8)38.230.969.1+7.462%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
51-32
51
32
+19
H15/11
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H19/11
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
52-18
52
18
+34
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H03/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A06/12
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H16/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H21/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H31/12
NCAA
75.1Avg total
43.2Scored
31.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.131.774.8+11.483%-
Last 30 at home (22)42.930.773.6+12.282%-
Last 30 away (8)43.634.277.9+9.488%-
Last 10 (10)43.231.975.1+11.380%-
Last 5 (5)40.036.476.4+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)36.024.060.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)43.331.975.3+11.483%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Florida State wins
5
Duke wins
DateGameScore
02/03/25Duke v Florida State100-65
17/02/24Florida State v Duke67-76
31/12/22Duke v Florida State86-67
19/02/22Duke v Florida State88-70
19/01/22Florida State v Duke79-78 OT
11/02/20Duke v Florida State70-65
Florida Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25ANorth Carolina66-79
23/12/25HJacksonville Dolphins87-63
20/12/25HMiss. Valley St.96-49
17/12/25ADayton69-97
13/12/25HUMass95-103
07/12/25AHouston67-82
03/12/25HGeorgia73-107
28/11/25HTexas A&M59-95
26/11/25HCSU Bakersfield89-59
21/11/25HGeorgia Southern98-72
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/25HGeorgia Tech85-79
21/12/25HTexas Tech81-82
16/12/25HLipscomb97-73
06/12/25AMichigan State66-60
03/12/25HFlorida67-66
28/11/25AArkansas80-71
23/11/25HHoward93-56
22/11/25HNiagara100-42
19/11/25HKansas78-66
15/11/25HIndiana State100-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL50%
HomeLLLWW70%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %50%70%0%
Points / game83.689.369.5
Allowed / game78.476.184.0
Point differential+5.3+13.2-14.5
Avg total162.0165.4153.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%70%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW92%
HomeWWWLW90%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %92%90%100%
Points / game87.087.186.7
Allowed / game63.864.063.3
Point differential+23.2+23.1+23.3
Avg total150.8151.1150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%70%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1312192%87.063.8+23.2
2 North Carolina1513287%81.365.9+15.4
3 California1513287%81.568.5+12.9
4 Miami (FL)1412286%88.567.8+20.7
5 SMU Mustangs1412286%91.576.9+14.6
6 Virginia1512380%84.170.7+13.4
7 Clemson1512380%78.265.7+12.5
8 Virginia Tech1512380%83.574.0+9.5
9 Stanford1512380%78.970.9+8.1
10 Louisville1411379%90.469.1+21.2
11 NC State1510567%85.371.4+13.9
12 Wake Forest1510567%81.974.3+7.7
13 Notre Dame1510567%74.366.7+7.6
14 Georgia Tech1510567%75.970.1+5.8
15 Syracuse149564%73.664.8+8.9
16 Florida State147750%83.678.4+5.3
17 Boston College147750%69.466.6+2.8
18 Pittsburgh157847%73.368.7+4.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Florida State424587
Duke424991
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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