PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Duke faces Illinois on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Duke at 88% because of their 2-1 record, 90.0 points per game and 60.3 allowed, a stark contrast to Illinois' 103.3 points per game and 66.3 allowed from their 2-1 record; the projected score is 84-70 and the projected total 153.4. Duke's three games have yielded 2 wins and 1 loss, with a 90.0 points per game average and 60.3 allowed, and their home record mirrors the overall, 2-1, while Illinois' single road game ended in a loss, 78-84, and their road average is 78.0 points for and 84.0 allowed. In the last five games each side has three wins and two losses; Duke's recent results include a 73-79 loss to Michigan State at home on 10 November, a 113-52 win over Coastal Carolina on 5 November, and a 84-50 win over Army on 2 November, whereas Illinois' recent results feature a 78-84 loss to Texas Tech away on 10 November, a 112-70 win over Penn on 5 November, and a 120-45 win over Fairleigh Dickinson on 2 November. The teams have met twice before, each winning once, with Duke's last victory 110-67 on 22 February 2025, and the model gives Duke a 88% chance to win, Illinois 12%, with a 2% overtime probability.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 90.0 | 57.0 | 147.0 | +33.0 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 90.0 | 57.0 | 147.0 | +33.0 | 75% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 81.1 | 63.0 | 144.1 | +18.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.4 | 60.2 | 146.6 | +26.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar ◀ (1) | 68.0 | 63.0 | 131.0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker (29) | 81.0 | 63.2 | 144.1 | +17.8 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 104.5 | 71.2 | 175.8 | +33.2 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 113.3 | 67.0 | 180.3 | +46.3 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 78.0 | 84.0 | 162.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 88.5 | 68.6 | 157.1 | +19.9 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 96.0 | 71.2 | 167.2 | +24.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar ◀ (5) | 72.6 | 72.2 | 144.8 | +0.4 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (25) | 86.7 | 67.2 | 154.0 | +19.5 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.6 | 30.8 | 70.4 | +8.8 | 77% | - |
| Last 30 at home (21) | 39.0 | 30.7 | 69.7 | +8.2 | 76% | - |
| Last 30 away (9) | 41.0 | 31.0 | 72.0 | +10.0 | 78% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.7 | 29.4 | 68.1 | +9.3 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 23.8 | 63.6 | +16.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar ◀ (1) | 35.0 | 33.0 | 68.0 | +2.0 | 100% | - |
| vs Weaker (29) | 39.7 | 30.7 | 70.4 | +9.0 | 76% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.9 | 31.0 | 70.9 | +8.9 | 77% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 41.6 | 28.5 | 70.1 | +13.1 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.2 | 34.8 | 72.0 | +2.5 | 67% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.6 | 31.8 | 70.4 | +6.8 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.6 | 35.2 | 79.8 | +9.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar ◀ (5) | 31.2 | 35.8 | 67.0 | -4.6 | 20% | - |
| vs Weaker (25) | 41.6 | 30.0 | 71.6 | +11.6 | 88% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 23/02/25 | Illinois v Duke | 67-110 |
| 09/12/20 | Duke v Illinois | 68-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 90-47 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Michigan State | 73-79 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Coastal Carolina | 113-52 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Army | 84-50 |
| 29/03/26 | H | Uconn | 72-73 |
| 27/03/26 | H | St. John's (N.Y.) | 80-75 |
| 21/03/26 | H | TCU | 81-58 |
| 19/03/26 | H | Siena | 71-65 |
| 15/03/26 | H | Virginia | 74-70 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Clemson | 73-61 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Sam Houston St. | 108-86 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Texas Tech | 78-84 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Penn | 112-70 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson | 120-45 |
| 04/04/26 | A | Uconn | 62-71 |
| 28/03/26 | H | Iowa | 71-59 |
| 27/03/26 | A | Houston | 65-55 |
| 22/03/26 | H | VCU Rams | 76-55 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Penn | 105-70 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Wisconsin | 88-91 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWLW | 75% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | - |
| Points / game | 90.0 | 90.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 57.0 | 57.0 | - |
| Point differential | +33.0 | +33.0 | - |
| Avg total | 147.0 | 147.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 75% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 104.5 | 113.3 | 78.0 |
| Allowed / game | 71.2 | 67.0 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | +33.2 | +46.3 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 175.8 | 180.3 | 162.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 3 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 7 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 9 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 10 | Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 11 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 12 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 15 |  Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 16 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 3 |  Rutgers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 56.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Minnesota | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 58.5 | +20.2 |
| 9 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 11 | Illinois | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 104.5 | 71.2 | +33.2 |
| 12 |  Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 |
| 13 |  Northwestern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 70.8 | 61.8 | +9.0 |
| 14 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Penn State | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.6 | 75.6 | +2.0 |
| 17 |  Ohio State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 79.2 | +1.8 |
| 18 |  Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 80.0 | +4.3 |
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