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Fairfield vs Merrimack Warriors Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 10 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#245
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game60.0
Allowed / game71.8
vs
Position#235
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game62.8
Allowed / game65.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Fairfield v Merrimack Warriors
10 Jan 2027
FAIR v MERR
upcoming
25 Jan 2025
FAIR54
MERR75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fairfield win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Merrimack Warriors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FairfieldUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quinnipiac
#123
W
85-79
85
79
+6
A22/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
72-58
72
58
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
47-69
47
69
-22
H01/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
71-60
71
60
+11
H06/03
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
74-55
74
55
+19
A07/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A09/03
NCAA
Vermont
#194
L
67-79
67
79
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#340
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A08/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#48
L
42-89
42
89
-47
A11/11
NCAA
NJIT
#345
W
63-60
63
60
+3
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-36
46-43
37-23
35-35
25-39
22-30
31-27
40-33
30-30
44-25
30-40
31-36
25-38
42-41
26-30
42-29
20-52
22-37
30-32
33-28
133.4Avg total
65.0Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)60.071.8131.8-11.850%
Season at home (2)65.069.5134.5-4.550%
Season away (2)55.074.0129.0-19.050%
Last 10 (10)65.068.4133.4-3.460%
Last 5 (5)60.272.6132.8-12.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)54.584.0138.5-29.50%
vs Similar (15)70.970.5141.4+0.353%
vs Weaker (13)76.267.1143.3+9.277%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
88-86 OT
88
86
+2
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#206
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
61-71
61
71
-10
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#234
W
73-60
73
60
+13
A08/11
NCAA
Florida
#52
L
54-83
54
83
-29
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-33
32-35
32-29
30-38
30-28
43-38
39-25
31-23
30-28
28-29
30-33
24-31
43-21
20-28
26-38
35-33
30-26
43-34
26-43
28-40
130.7Avg total
65.6Scored
65.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)62.865.8128.5-3.050%
Season at home (2)62.060.0122.0+2.050%
Season away (2)63.571.5135.0-8.050%
Last 10 (10)65.665.1130.7+0.560%
Last 5 (5)61.065.4126.4-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)59.367.7127.0-8.333%
vs Similar (18)69.562.9132.4+6.678%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)70.762.6133.2+8.189%
This opponent (Fairfield) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -5.4-5.41st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +2.0+2.02nd half: -1.5-1.5
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -5.4-5.41st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +2.0+2.02nd half: -1.5-1.5
FairfieldMerrimack Warriors
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
FairfieldLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quinnipiac
#123
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A22/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H06/03
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A07/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A09/03
NCAA
Vermont
#194
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H06/11
NCAA
Bryant University
#340
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A08/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#48
L
20-52
20
52
-32
A11/11
NCAA
NJIT
#345
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H15/11
NCAA
64.0Avg total
29.3Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.733.567.2+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.730.164.7+4.667%-
Last 30 away (15)32.736.969.7-4.227%-
Last 10 (10)29.334.764.0-5.430%-
Last 5 (5)26.238.464.6-12.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)22.545.067.5-22.50%-
vs Similar (15)32.934.066.9-1.140%-
vs Weaker (13)36.431.267.5+5.262%-
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#206
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#234
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A08/11
NCAA
Florida
#52
L
26-43
26
43
-17
A14/11
NCAA
62.6Avg total
32.2Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.829.763.5+4.073%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.829.565.3+6.380%-
Last 30 away (15)31.730.061.7+1.767%-
Last 10 (10)32.230.462.6+1.870%-
Last 5 (5)31.032.263.2-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.734.065.7-2.333%-
vs Similar (18)33.328.962.2+4.472%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)35.330.065.3+5.389%-
This opponent (Fairfield) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Fairfield wins
3
Merrimack Warriors wins
Fairfieldlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HNJIT63-60
11/11/26AWisconsin42-89
08/11/26ABryant University68-59
06/11/26HVermont67-79
09/03/26ASiena61-76
07/03/26ASt. Peters74-55
06/03/26HManhattan71-60
01/03/26HMount St. Mary's47-69
28/02/26HSiena72-58
22/02/26AQuinnipiac85-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AFlorida54-83
08/11/26AAlbany Great Danes73-60
06/11/26HUMass Lowell61-71
02/11/26HAppalachian State63-49
11/03/26HSiena54-64
08/03/26HMarist58-57
06/03/26HSacred Heart70-48
01/03/26ANiagara73-66
28/02/26ACanisius62-67
22/02/26HIona88-86 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fairfield
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game60.065.055.0
Allowed / game71.869.574.0
Point differential-11.8-4.5-19.0
Avg total131.8134.5129.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Merrimack Warriors
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWL50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game62.862.063.5
Allowed / game65.860.071.5
Point differential-3.0+2.0-8.0
Avg total128.5122.0135.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
6 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
7 Quinnipiac52340%68.274.8-6.6
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara4040%58.579.5-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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