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Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 23 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Projected 110-112
Projected total 221.6
Scheduled
Position#11
Record8-5
FormWWWLL
Points / game116.7
Allowed / game112.4
Golden State Warriors
USA
Vs
45%
55%
■ GSW 45%■ BOS 55%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
5.3/10
Around normal
Boston Celtics
USA
Position#3
Record10-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game103.1
USANBA· Chase Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics
22 Nov 2026
GSW v BOS
upcoming
19 Feb 2026
GSW110
BOS121
20 Jan 2025
GSW85
BOS125
19 Dec 2023
GSW132
BOS126
10 Dec 2022
GSW123
BOS107
13 Jun 2022
GSW104
BOS94
05 Jun 2022
GSW107
BOS88
02 Jun 2022
GSW108
BOS120
16 Mar 2022
GSW88
BOS110
02 Feb 2021
GSW107
BOS111
15 Nov 2019
GSW100
BOS105
05 Mar 2019
GSW95
BOS128
27 Jan 2018
GSW109
BOS105
08 Mar 2017
GSW86
BOS99
01 Apr 2016
GSW106
BOS109
25 Jan 2015
GSW114
BOS111
10 Jan 2014
GSW99
BOS97
29 Dec 2012
GSW101
BOS83
14 Mar 2012
GSW103
BOS105
22 Feb 2011
GSW93
BOS115
28 Dec 2009
GSW103
BOS99
26 Dec 2008
GSW99
BOS89
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Golden State Warriors host Boston Celtics in the NBA. Pythia makes Boston Celtics the favourite at 55% and projects 110-112, about 222 points in all. Overtime chance: 7%. Golden State Warriors are 8-5 this season (116.7 scored, 112.4 allowed a game), form WWWLL; Boston Celtics are 10-2 this season (114.2 scored, 103.1 allowed a game), form WWWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Golden State Warriors win
44.8%fair 2.23
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics win
55.2%fair 1.81
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
134-114
134
114
+20
102avg 105
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
119-114
119
114
+5
93avg 105
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
W
112-95
112
95
+17
102avg 105
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
124-112
124
112
+12
88avg 105
H02/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
116-113
116
113
+3
92avg 105
H03/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
120-100
120
100
+20
126avg 105
H06/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
126-119 OT
126
119
+7
128avg 105
H08/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
138-87
138
87
+51
144avg 105
H10/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
108-115
108
115
-7
97avg 105
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
85-123
85
123
-38
69avg 105
A14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-32
32-24
40-28
34-30
30-23
34-25
29-33
26-33
15-38
38-15
32-27
27-15
29-37
34-20
29-28
32-27
19-31
32-26
42-36
23-20
26-29
27-24
38-23
29-24
31-19
26-22
20-37
33-32
35-20
37-23
40-22
26-22
20-35
31-21
28-29
29-30
14-38
19-25
27-34
25-26
227.4Avg total
118.2Scored
109.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.7112.4229.1+4.362%
Season at home (7)120.6105.3225.9+15.386%
Season away (6)112.2120.7232.8-8.533%
Last 10 (10)118.2109.2227.4+9.080%
Last 5 (5)115.4108.8224.2+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)104.7117.6222.2-12.911%
vs Similar (9)111.9116.2228.1-4.333%
vs Weaker (12)123.0114.2237.2+8.883%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
134-99
134
99
+35
127avg 107
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
125-124 OT
125
124
+1
119avg 107
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
125-111
125
111
+14
118avg 107
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
108-97
108
97
+11
103avg 107
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
93-109
93
109
-16
78avg 107
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
109-102
109
102
+7
102avg 107
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
119-80
119
80
+39
123avg 107
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
117-97
117
97
+20
109avg 107
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
123-101
123
101
+22
117avg 107
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
98-93
98
93
+5
95avg 107
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-21
33-33
39-21
29-24
26-31
30-30
30-21
31-35
44-25
34-24
21-25
26-37
24-23
31-27
22-24
31-23
29-29
21-28
23-25
20-27
28-14
34-27
25-38
22-23
40-20
30-19
26-18
23-23
25-27
33-18
33-29
26-23
30-23
32-28
29-31
32-19
29-38
25-23
21-19
23-13
216.4Avg total
115.1Scored
101.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)114.2103.1217.3+11.283%
Season at home (5)120.0107.8227.8+12.2100%
Season away (7)110.199.7209.9+10.471%
Last 10 (10)115.1101.3216.4+13.890%
Last 5 (5)113.294.6207.8+18.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)109.0106.2215.2+2.860%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)115.5105.0220.5+10.576%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%1%1751%1802%1853%1905%1956%2008%20510%21010%21511%22011%2259%2307%2356%2404%2453%2502%2551%2601%2650%2700%275
1%1803%1906%20010%21011%2209%2306%2403%2501%2600%270
Pythia expects about 222 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 220-224 (11%).
Over/Under 220.5
Over 220.5
51.4%
Under 220.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225.5
Over 225.5
40.7%
Under 225.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230.5
Over 230.5
30.9%
Under 230.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Golden State Warriors total 109.5
Over 109.5
51.1%
Under 109.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Golden State Warriors total 113.5
Over 113.5
38.0%
Under 113.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Golden State Warriors total 117.5
Over 117.5
26.2%
Under 117.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Celtics total 108
Over 108
62.5%
Under 108
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Celtics total 112
Over 112
48.8%
Under 112
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Celtics total 116
Over 116
35.2%
Under 116
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-391%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-186%-157%-129%-99%-68%-36%+08%+38%+66%+95%+124%+153%+182%+211%+241%+271%+300%+33
1%-361%-303%-245%-187%-129%-66%+08%+65%+123%+181%+241%+30
Margin from Golden State Warriors's side (positive = Golden State Warriors win). Pythia's expected margin is -1.7; Golden State Warriors win by 1+ in 39% of simulations.
Spread Golden State Warriors -3
GSW -3
38.3%
BOS +3
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
GSW
No market prices yet.
BOS
No market prices yet.
Spread Golden State Warriors 0
GSW 0
44.8%
BOS 0
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
GSW
No market prices yet.
BOS
No market prices yet.
Spread Golden State Warriors +3
GSW +3
51.1%
BOS -3
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
GSW
No market prices yet.
BOS
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +5.7+5.7Q2Q2: +8.5+8.5Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +1.6+1.6
-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: -5.5-5.5Q1: +5.7+5.7Q2Q2: +8.5+8.5Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +1.6+1.6
Golden State WarriorsBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
64-48
64
48
+16
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
63-57
63
57
+6
H02/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H03/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H06/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H08/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
72-43
72
43
+29
H10/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
33-63
33
63
-30
A14/11
NBA
108.4Avg total
55.7Scored
52.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.856.6111.4-1.830%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.554.8111.3+1.736%-
Last 30 away (16)53.258.2111.4-4.925%-
Last 10 (10)55.752.7108.4+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)53.251.2104.4+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)51.057.6108.6-6.622%-
vs Similar (9)52.056.4108.4-4.411%-
vs Weaker (12)59.756.0115.7+3.750%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
66-54
66
54
+12
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
78-49
78
49
+29
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
70-39
70
39
+31
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
58-45
58
45
+13
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
54-61
54
61
-7
A12/11
NBA
111.9Avg total
61.1Scored
50.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.252.0111.1+7.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.953.3112.2+5.753%-
Last 30 away (15)59.450.7110.1+8.767%-
Last 10 (10)61.150.8111.9+10.370%-
Last 5 (5)61.247.4108.6+13.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)54.054.8108.8-0.820%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)60.251.4111.6+8.868%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 116.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers50.1 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.123.6
53.5%
54.0%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.716.7
41.0%
35.1%50.1
🏀 Free throws23.819.0
79.8%
77.3%19.0
They take 84.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 110.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.123.6
53.5%
54.0%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.215.0
34.7%
35.1%45.0
🏀 Free throws24.118.1
75.1%
77.3%18.1
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Golden State Warriors
LLWWWWWWWW
Boston Celtics
WWWWWLWWWW
#11
League position
#3
+3.0
Net rating
+4.2
112.8
Offensive rating
109.8
109.8
Defensive rating
105.6
57.4%
Effective FG%
52.8%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
15.8%
Turnover %
13.4%
19.9%
Off. rebound %
24.9%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.28
41.0%
3-point %
34.7%
69.2%
Assist %
65.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence112.8 · 109.8Defence109.8 · 105.6Shooting57.4% · 52.8%3-point %41.0% · 34.7%Ball care15.8% · 13.4%Off. rebounds19.9% · 24.9%Free throws0.28 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ Golden State Warriors   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Golden State Warriors wins
5
Boston Celtics wins
DateGameScore
18/03/26Boston Celtics v Golden State Warriors120-99
20/02/26Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics110-121
20/01/25Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics85-125
07/11/24Boston Celtics v Golden State Warriors112-118
03/03/24Boston Celtics v Golden State Warriors140-88
20/12/23Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics132-126 OT
20/01/23Boston Celtics v Golden State Warriors121-118 OT
11/12/22Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics123-107
17/06/22Boston Celtics v Golden State Warriors90-103
14/06/22Golden State Warriors v Boston Celtics104-94
Golden State Warriorslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs85-123
12/11/26AHouston Rockets108-115
10/11/26HNew Orleans Pelicans138-87
08/11/26HOrlando Magic126-119 OT
06/11/26HMiami Heat120-100
03/11/26HPhoenix Suns116-113
02/11/26HLos Angeles Clippers124-112
31/10/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-95
29/10/26AMinnesota Timberwolves119-114
27/10/26ADenver Nuggets134-114
Boston Celticslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AToronto Raptors98-93
11/11/26APhiladelphia 76ers123-101
09/11/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-97
07/11/26ACharlotte Hornets119-80
05/11/26HMilwaukee Bucks109-102
03/11/26AHouston Rockets93-109
01/11/26AOrlando Magic108-97
30/10/26HChicago Bulls125-111
27/10/26HBrooklyn Nets125-124 OT
26/10/26HChicago Bulls134-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Golden State Warriors
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL62%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %62%86%33%
Points / game116.7120.6112.2
Allowed / game112.4105.3120.7
Point differential+4.3+15.3-8.5
Avg total229.1225.9232.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%57%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%14%0%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %83%100%71%
Points / game114.2120.0110.1
Allowed / game103.1107.899.7
Point differential+11.2+12.2+10.4
Avg total217.3227.8209.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%40%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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