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Illinois (Chi.) vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 18 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 58-73
31-33 27-40
Position#303
Record8-9
FormLLWLL
Points / game69.6
Allowed / game65.3
vs
Position#296
Record7-10
FormWWWWL
Points / game72.5
Allowed / game70.2
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Illinois (Chi.) v Murray State
01 Jan 2026
ILLI77
MURR81
15 Jan 2025
ILLI97
MURR93
17 Jan 2024
ILLI58
MURR73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois (Chi.) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#240
L
64-69
64
69
-5
H01/12
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#256
W
55-49
55
49
+6
A09/12
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#167
L
68-70
68
70
-2
H13/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
89-68
89
68
+21
H16/12
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#343
L
66-67
66
67
-1
H21/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
50-62
50
62
-12
A31/12
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
73-85
73
85
-12
A03/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
70-64
70
64
+6
H07/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
59-67
59
67
-8
A11/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
59-77
59
77
-18
H13/01
NCAA
1H
2H
36-30
28-39
25-19
30-30
37-31
31-39
47-33
42-35
32-36
34-31
30-32
20-30
43-43
30-42
42-36
28-28
32-35
27-32
26-39
33-38
133.1Avg total
65.3Scored
67.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)69.665.3134.9+4.447%
Season at home (9)74.663.8138.3+10.856%
Season away (8)64.167.0131.1-2.938%
Last 10 (10)65.367.8133.1-2.530%
Last 5 (5)62.271.0133.2-8.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)64.270.9135.1-6.720%
vs Similar ◀ (10)71.469.5140.9+1.940%
vs Weaker (4)72.067.0139.0+5.075%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Austin Peay
#171
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A10/12
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A14/12
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#244
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H16/12
NCAA
UALR
#90
L
66-80
66
80
-14
A19/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#99
L
65-92
65
92
-27
H22/12
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#271
W
75-54
75
54
+21
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
W
85-73
85
73
+12
H03/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
81-59
81
59
+22
A06/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
W
77-53
77
53
+24
A11/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H14/01
NCAA
1H
2H
26-28
23-25
41-53
40-32
29-24
26-37
31-40
35-40
41-49
24-43
35-31
40-23
43-43
42-30
31-20
50-39
42-19
35-34
27-25
33-45
137.4Avg total
69.4Scored
68.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)72.570.2142.8+2.341%
Season at home (10)72.670.5143.1+2.150%
Season away (7)72.469.9142.3+2.629%
Last 10 (10)69.468.0137.4+1.440%
Last 5 (5)75.661.8137.4+13.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)69.581.1150.6-11.621%
vs Similar ◀ (12)71.166.8137.8+4.358%
vs Weaker (4)79.560.5140.0+19.0100%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +1.4+1.42nd half2nd half: -4.1-4.12nd half: +0.0+0.0
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +1.4+1.42nd half2nd half: -4.1-4.12nd half: +0.0+0.0
Illinois (Chi.)Murray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#240
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H01/12
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#256
W
25-19
25
19
+6
A09/12
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#167
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H13/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H16/12
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#343
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H21/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A31/12
NCAA
Murray State
#296
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#355
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H07/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A11/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H13/01
NCAA
68.4Avg total
35.0Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.833.367.2+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.032.267.2+2.860%-
Last 30 away (15)32.734.567.1-1.833%-
Last 10 (10)35.033.468.4+1.650%-
Last 5 (5)34.637.071.6-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)30.433.864.2-3.433%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.133.570.6+3.660%-
vs Weaker (4)35.833.569.2+2.250%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Austin Peay
#171
L
26-28
26
28
-2
A10/12
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
L
41-53
41
53
-12
A14/12
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#244
W
29-24
29
24
+5
H16/12
NCAA
UALR
#90
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A19/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#99
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H22/12
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#271
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
31-20
31
20
+11
A06/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
W
42-19
42
19
+23
A11/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
27-25
27
25
+2
H14/01
NCAA
67.8Avg total
34.6Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.134.669.7+0.550%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.934.671.6+2.365%-
Last 30 away (13)32.734.567.2-1.831%-
Last 10 (10)34.633.267.8+1.450%-
Last 5 (5)35.627.663.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)34.939.774.6-4.921%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.430.665.0+3.867%-
vs Weaker (4)38.028.566.5+9.5100%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Illinois (Chi.) wins
2
Murray State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/24HBradley59-77
11/01/24ANorthern Iowa59-67
07/01/24HValparaiso70-64
03/01/24AMurray State73-85
31/12/23ASouthern Illinois50-62
21/12/23HIncarnate Word66-67
16/12/23HWestern Michigan89-68
13/12/23HWisc. Green Bay68-70
09/12/23AJacksonville State55-49
01/12/23HIllinois State64-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/24HNorthern Iowa60-70
11/01/24AMissouri State77-53
06/01/24AEvansville81-59
03/01/24HIllinois (Chi.)85-73
30/12/23HMiddle Tenn. St.75-54
22/12/23HSMU Mustangs65-92
19/12/23AUALR66-80
16/12/23HSE Louisiana55-61
14/12/23AMississippi St.81-85
10/12/23AAustin Peay49-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL47%
HomeLWLWL56%
AwayLWLLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %47%56%38%
Points / game69.674.664.1
Allowed / game65.363.867.0
Point differential+4.4+10.8-2.9
Avg total134.9138.3131.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%44%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Murray State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL41%
HomeLLWWL50%
AwayLLLWW29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %41%50%29%
Points / game72.572.672.4
Allowed / game70.270.569.9
Point differential+2.3+2.1+2.6
Avg total142.8143.1142.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%30%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (5)0% (1)0% (4)
Overtime %6%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State1815383%86.571.9+14.6
2 Drake1714382%78.968.5+10.4
3 Southern Illinois1712571%74.164.5+9.6
4 Bradley1712571%74.666.1+8.6
5 Belmont1711665%78.577.7+0.8
6 Evansville1710759%76.173.5+2.6
7 Northern Iowa179853%75.271.6+3.6
8 Illinois (Chi.)178947%69.665.3+4.4
9 Illinois State178947%66.968.6-1.7
10 Murray State1771041%72.570.2+2.3
11 Valparaiso1751229%66.571.0-4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois (Chi.)312758
Murray State334073
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