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Italy vs Iceland Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 27 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 76-81
21-21 13-17 20-23 22-20
Position#29
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Iceland 🏆
Position#60
Record-
FormLLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeWorld CupRound 1· Aunkrogers A.
Other2027
Meetings · Italy v Iceland
27 Nov 2025
ITAL76
ICEL81
25 Nov 2024
ITAL74
ICEL81
27 Feb 2022
ITAL95
ICEL87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Iceland winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Iceland
#25
W
95-71
95
71
+24
no box
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
74-81
74
81
-7
no box
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
80-67
80
67
+13
75avg 73
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
67-71
67
71
-4
60avg 73
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
66-75
66
75
-9
54avg 73
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
W
78-62
78
62
+16
74avg 73
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
96-79
96
79
+17
97avg 73
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
W
67-63
67
63
+4
58avg 73
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
89-54
89
54
+35
87avg 73
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
77avg 73
H07/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-12
22-13
16-29
30-17
9-22
20-10
27-26
18-23
17-12
31-19
12-19
20-17
10-13
17-19
23-10
17-29
12-22
20-14
13-20
21-19
18-10
14-22
21-15
25-15
22-21
22-19
28-21
24-18
10-18
20-18
19-11
18-16
24-6
16-13
27-24
22-11
11-29
29-21
16-22
21-12
149.6Avg total
78.9Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.970.7149.6+8.260%
Last 5 (5)81.468.4149.8+13.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.878.7160.5+3.267%
vs Similar (12)79.479.2158.7+0.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)83.269.1152.3+14.275%
This opponent (Iceland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormIceland
Date
Competition
Turkey
#20
L
75-76
75
76
-1
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
L
71-95
71
95
-24
no box
H22/11
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
W
81-74
81
74
+7
no box
A25/11
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
78-87
78
87
-9
74avg 69
A20/02
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
83-71
83
71
+12
80avg 69
H23/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#12
L
71-83
71
83
-12
60avg 69
A28/08
EuroBasket
Belgium
#16
L
64-71
64
71
-7
60avg 69
H30/08
EuroBasket
Poland
#9
L
75-84
75
84
-9
67avg 69
A31/08
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
79-87
79
87
-8
79avg 69
H02/09
EuroBasket
France
#5
L
74-114
74
114
-40
60avg 69
A04/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-16
14-19
17-19
28-22
12-27
13-22
29-16
17-30
22-9
10-20
26-27
23-18
21-20
11-28
25-24
21-15
26-16
20-22
23-16
14-17
19-23
13-13
20-24
19-23
21-17
15-15
16-14
12-25
16-19
16-22
19-20
24-23
20-21
15-15
11-24
33-27
9-36
25-30
12-24
28-24
159.3Avg total
75.1Scored
84.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.184.2159.3-9.120%
Last 5 (5)72.687.8160.4-15.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)70.685.8156.3-15.28%
vs Similar (8)85.084.9169.9+0.150%
vs Weaker (10)83.073.9156.9+9.190%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -5.4-5.4Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +3.9+3.9Q4: -0.5-0.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -5.4-5.4Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +3.9+3.9Q4: -0.5-0.5
ItalyIceland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iceland
#25
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
40-19
40
19
+21
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H07/09
EuroBasket
70.4Avg total
37.1Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.037.377.3+2.750%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.636.575.1+2.140%-
Last 30 away (15)41.438.079.4+3.460%-
Last 10 (10)37.133.370.4+3.840%-
Last 5 (5)37.235.472.6+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.340.780.0-1.333%-
vs Similar (12)39.238.978.1+0.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)41.233.975.1+7.258%-
This opponent (Iceland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IcelandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Turkey
#20
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A25/02
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
L
25-49
25
49
-24
H22/11
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A25/11
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
32-48
32
48
-16
A20/02
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H23/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#12
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Belgium
#16
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H30/08
EuroBasket
Poland
#9
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A31/08
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H02/09
EuroBasket
France
#5
L
34-66
34
66
-32
A04/09
EuroBasket
74.4Avg total
33.4Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.640.577.1-3.940%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.838.375.1-1.543%-
Last 30 away (16)36.442.478.9-6.038%-
Last 10 (10)33.441.074.4-7.630%-
Last 5 (5)33.842.276.0-8.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)32.042.174.1-10.125%-
vs Similar (8)39.440.279.6-0.938%-
vs Weaker (10)39.938.878.7+1.160%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.8
49.1%
-33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.6
34.0%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.7
73.7%
-15.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Icelandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Iceland: 73.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.217.5
51.2%
-35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.08.4
30.0%
-25.2
🏀 Free throws18.713.7
73.3%
-13.7
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
LWWWWLLWLW
Iceland
LLLLLWLWLL
#29
League position
#60
+12.0
Net rating
-13.1
108.6
Offensive rating
100.0
96.7
Defensive rating
113.1
50.0%
Effective FG%
48.4%
47.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
15.4%
Turnover %
17.2%
30.5%
Off. rebound %
25.0%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.0%
3-point %
30.0%
75.0%
Assist %
70.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Italy   ■ Iceland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Italy wins
2
Iceland wins
DateGameScore
25/11/24Italy v Iceland74-81
22/11/24Iceland v Italy71-95
27/02/22Italy v Iceland95-87
24/02/22Iceland v Italy107-105 OT
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/09/25HSlovenia77-84
04/09/25HCyprus89-54
02/09/25HSpain67-63
31/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina96-79
30/08/25HGeorgia78-62
28/08/25AGreece66-75
23/02/25HHungary67-71
20/02/25ATurkey80-67
25/11/24HIceland74-81
22/11/24AIceland95-71
Icelandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/09/25AFrance74-114
02/09/25HSlovenia79-87
31/08/25APoland75-84
30/08/25HBelgium64-71
28/08/25AIsrael71-83
23/02/25HTurkey83-71
20/02/25AHungary78-87
25/11/24AItaly81-74
22/11/24HItaly71-95
25/02/24ATurkey75-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Iceland
World Cup 2027
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Croatia440100%95.567.0+28.5
2 Greece110100%91.064.0+27.0
3 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
4 Iran110100%94.068.0+26.0
5 Saudi Arabia110100%75.051.0+24.0
6 South Sudan110100%79.055.0+24.0
7 Turkey110100%93.071.0+22.0
8 Portugal110100%83.062.0+21.0
9 Jordan110100%74.059.0+15.0
10 Spain110100%74.064.0+10.0
11 Tunisia110100%88.078.0+10.0
12 Cape Verde110100%82.077.0+5.0
13 Serbia110100%90.086.0+4.0
14 Lebanon110100%75.074.0+1.0
15 Ukraine54180%81.473.2+8.2
16 Netherlands43175%78.271.8+6.5
17 Switzerland118373%76.864.8+12.0
18 Romania96367%75.774.0+1.7
19 Austria85362%89.276.2+13.0
20 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
21 Hungary42250%80.270.5+9.8
22 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
23 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
24 Denmark52340%75.878.8-3.0
25 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
26 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
27 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
28 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
29 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
30 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
31 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
32 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
33 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
34 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
35 Qatar1010%74.075.0-1.0
36 Cameroon1010%77.082.0-5.0
37 Nigeria1010%78.088.0-10.0
38 Georgia1010%79.092.0-13.0
39 Syria1010%59.074.0-15.0
40 Montenegro1010%62.083.0-21.0
41 Bosnia & Herzegovina1010%71.093.0-22.0
42 India1010%51.075.0-24.0
43 Libya1010%55.079.0-24.0
44 Iraq1010%68.094.0-26.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 44 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2113202276
Iceland2117232081
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