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Italy vs Lithuania Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 Jul 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 87-84
22-25 18-12 19-24 28-23
Position#29
Record4-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game87.4
Allowed / game75.4
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#41
Record3-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game91.8
Allowed / game84.6
EuropeWorld CupRound 6· Segafredo Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Italy v Lithuania
05 Jul 2026
ITAL87
LITH84
29 Nov 2018
ITAL70
LITH65
27 Aug 2013
ITAL63
LITH79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lithuania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Georgia
#14
W
78-62
78
62
+16
74avg 74
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
96-79
96
79
+17
97avg 74
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
W
67-63
67
63
+4
58avg 74
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
89-54
89
54
+35
87avg 74
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
77avg 74
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
76-81
76
81
-5
no box
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
82-81
82
81
+1
no box
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
93-57
93
57
+36
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
84-75
84
75
+9
no box
H02/03
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
102-83
102
83
+19
no box
A02/07
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-10
14-22
21-15
25-15
22-21
22-19
28-21
24-18
10-18
20-18
19-11
18-16
24-6
16-13
27-24
22-11
11-29
29-21
16-22
21-12
21-21
13-17
20-23
22-20
16-19
18-20
20-15
28-27
32-14
19-13
14-19
28-11
21-21
22-17
21-21
20-16
27-25
31-21
26-16
18-21
156.3Avg total
84.4Scored
71.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)87.475.4162.8+12.080%
Season at home (2)80.078.0158.0+2.050%
Season away (3)92.373.7166.0+18.7100%
Last 10 (10)84.471.9156.3+12.580%
Last 5 (5)87.475.4162.8+12.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.878.7160.5+3.267%
vs Similar (9)79.878.4158.2+1.356%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)84.272.5156.7+11.773%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Germany
#1
L
88-107
88
107
-19
88avg 86
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
81-78
81
78
+3
76avg 86
A01/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
W
74-71
74
71
+3
69avg 86
H03/09
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
88-79
88
79
+9
86avg 86
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
76-87
76
87
-11
77avg 86
H09/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#81
W
89-88
89
88
+1
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Italy
#29
L
81-82
81
82
-1
no box
H30/11
World Cup
Iceland
#60
L
85-86
85
86
-1
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
99-82
99
82
+17
no box
H02/03
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
105-85
105
85
+20
no box
H02/07
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-32
27-23
25-28
16-24
20-21
25-15
12-12
24-30
14-21
19-18
21-14
20-18
28-18
19-19
19-17
22-25
19-24
19-20
14-20
24-23
16-21
22-30
30-16
21-21
19-16
20-18
15-20
27-28
21-24
23-19
24-11
17-32
26-14
26-19
27-23
20-26
36-28
23-13
21-24
25-20
171.1Avg total
86.6Scored
84.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)91.884.6176.4+7.260%
Season at home (3)95.083.0178.0+12.067%
Season away (2)87.087.0174.0+0.050%
Last 10 (10)86.684.5171.1+2.160%
Last 5 (5)91.884.6176.4+7.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)75.791.5167.2-15.80%
vs Similar (7)80.375.0155.3+5.371%
vs Weaker (17)88.271.8160.0+16.488%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -3.1-3.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -3.1-3.1
ItalyLithuania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#14
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
40-19
40
19
+21
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
51-27
51
27
+24
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H02/03
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
58-46
58
46
+12
A02/07
World Cup
77.1Avg total
40.6Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.937.277.1+2.747%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.537.174.6+0.333%-
Last 30 away (15)42.337.379.7+5.060%-
Last 10 (10)40.636.577.1+4.150%-
Last 5 (5)44.037.681.6+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.340.780.0-1.333%-
vs Similar (9)38.438.777.1-0.244%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)41.035.076.0+6.053%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#1
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A01/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H03/09
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H09/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#81
L
38-51
38
51
-13
A27/11
World Cup
Italy
#29
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H30/11
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A27/02
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H02/03
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
59-41
59
41
+18
H02/07
World Cup
85.5Avg total
44.2Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.838.881.6+4.063%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.539.684.1+4.959%-
Last 30 away (13)40.537.878.3+2.869%-
Last 10 (10)44.241.385.5+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)46.440.486.8+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)38.242.780.8-4.533%-
vs Similar (7)42.738.681.3+4.171%-
vs Weaker (17)44.437.581.9+6.971%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.8
49.1%
-33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.6
34.0%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.7
73.7%
-15.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 85.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 21% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.222.5
57.4%
-45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.07.3
33.2%
-21.9
🏀 Free throws25.518.2
71.4%
-18.2
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Jul 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
WWWWLLWWWW
Lithuania
WWLLWLWWWL
#29
League position
#41
+12.0
Net rating
+14.1
108.6
Offensive rating
111.9
96.7
Defensive rating
97.9
50.0%
Effective FG%
54.7%
47.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
15.4%
Turnover %
18.4%
30.5%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.42
34.0%
3-point %
33.2%
75.0%
Assist %
74.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Italy   ■ Lithuania
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Italy wins
2
Lithuania wins
DateGameScore
30/11/25Lithuania v Italy81-82
25/02/19Lithuania v Italy86-73
29/11/18Italy v Lithuania70-65
27/08/13Italy v Lithuania63-79
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/07/26AIceland102-83
02/03/26HGreat Britain84-75
27/02/26AGreat Britain93-57
30/11/25ALithuania82-81
27/11/25HIceland76-81
07/09/25HSlovenia77-84
04/09/25HCyprus89-54
02/09/25HSpain67-63
31/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina96-79
30/08/25HGeorgia78-62
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/07/26HGreat Britain105-85
02/03/26HIceland99-82
27/02/26AIceland85-86
30/11/25HItaly81-82
27/11/25AGreat Britain89-88
09/09/25HGreece76-87
06/09/25HLatvia88-79
03/09/25HSweden74-71
01/09/25AFinland81-78
30/08/25HGermany88-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2027
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW80%
HomeLW50%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%50%100%
Points / game87.480.092.3
Allowed / game75.478.073.7
Point differential+12.0+2.0+18.7
Avg total162.8158.0166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%0%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lithuania
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW60%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%67%50%
Points / game91.895.087.0
Allowed / game84.683.087.0
Point differential+7.2+12.0+0.0
Avg total176.4178.0174.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
2 Australia550100%94.670.8+23.8
3 Canada550100%101.682.6+19.0
4 Brazil550100%91.674.4+17.2
5 Poland550100%94.878.4+16.4
6 Turkey550100%87.274.0+13.2
7 Mali550100%82.071.6+10.4
8 Croatia98189%96.969.8+27.1
9 Jordan65183%85.060.0+25.0
10 Ivory Coast65183%94.875.2+19.7
11 Lebanon65183%89.572.3+17.2
12 Spain65183%87.771.2+16.5
13 Iran65183%75.363.5+11.8
14 Cameroon65183%76.771.8+4.8
15 Senegal54180%88.068.6+19.4
16 Argentina54180%84.265.8+18.4
17 Uruguay54180%80.467.8+12.6
18 Italy54180%87.475.4+12.0
19 Japan54180%84.073.8+10.2
20 Germany54180%88.680.2+8.4
21 France54180%81.473.6+7.8
22 Finland54180%79.876.6+3.2
23 Mexico43175%92.882.8+10.0
24 Ukraine107370%81.974.6+7.3
25 South Sudan64267%82.765.3+17.3
26 Dominican Republic32167%88.778.3+10.3
27 Guinea64267%72.564.3+8.2
28 Tunisia64267%74.868.5+6.3
29 Qatar64267%80.074.3+5.7
30 Nigeria64267%79.774.7+5.0
31 Romania138562%77.877.5+0.4
32 Angola53260%84.072.2+11.8
33 Lithuania53260%91.884.6+7.2
34 New Zealand53260%86.079.6+6.4
35 Estonia53260%87.281.6+5.6
36 Slovenia53260%86.882.6+4.2
37 Serbia53260%85.081.4+3.6
38 Montenegro53260%69.274.0-4.8
39 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
40 Netherlands95456%79.975.7+4.2
41 Switzerland158753%73.271.3+1.9
42 Portugal63350%80.874.8+6.0
43 Greece63350%72.268.0+4.2
44 Egypt63350%77.773.7+4.0
45 Saudi Arabia63350%76.874.3+2.5
46 Cape Verde63350%79.881.8-2.0
47 Georgia63350%80.882.8-2.0
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Colombia42250%79.284.5-5.2
50 Iceland63350%84.089.7-5.7
51 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
52 Austria136746%84.382.8+1.5
53 Hungary94544%80.478.4+2.0
54 Philippines52340%83.277.0+6.2
55 Israel52340%80.674.8+5.8
56 Bosnia & Herzegovina52340%78.673.8+4.8
57 Bahamas52340%90.289.2+1.0
58 South Korea52340%77.477.8-0.4
59 Latvia52340%78.079.8-1.8
60 Sweden52340%81.284.8-3.6
61 China52340%82.487.0-4.6
62 Chinese Taipei52340%77.883.0-5.2
63 Czech Republic52340%82.688.8-6.2
64 Panama52340%76.885.8-9.0
65 Jamaica52340%88.0100.2-12.2
66 D.R. Congo52340%67.081.2-14.2
67 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
68 Syria62433%66.078.3-12.3
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Venezuela41325%80.586.2-5.8
71 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
72 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
73 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
74 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Puerto Rico51420%84.492.2-7.8
77 Chile51420%71.079.4-8.4
78 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
79 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
80 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium5050%72.279.0-6.8
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Cuba5050%66.088.0-22.0
87 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
88 Nicaragua3030%70.794.3-23.7
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Guam5050%63.299.6-36.4
93 Cyprus5050%56.496.6-40.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2218192887
Lithuania2512242384
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