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Italy vs Turkey Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 26 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#29
Record5-3
FormWWWLL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game76.9
vs
Position#4
Record8-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game91.9
Allowed / game72.6
EuropeWorld CupRound 3
Other2027
Meetings · Italy v Turkey
26 Nov 2026
ITAL v TURK
upcoming
22 Feb 2024
ITAL87
TURK80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Turkey win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cyprus
#24
W
89-54
89
54
+35
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
76-81
76
81
-5
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
82-81
82
81
+1
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
93-57
93
57
+36
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
84-75
84
75
+9
H02/03
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
102-83
102
83
+19
A02/07
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H05/07
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
L
76-78
76
78
-2
A28/08
World Cup
Serbia
#21
L
64-76
64
76
-12
H31/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-6
16-13
27-24
22-11
11-29
29-21
16-22
21-12
21-21
13-17
20-23
22-20
16-19
18-20
20-15
28-27
32-14
19-13
14-19
28-11
21-21
22-17
21-21
20-16
27-25
31-21
26-16
18-21
22-25
18-12
19-24
28-23
17-18
10-16
27-24
22-20
19-20
12-20
23-17
10-19
158.3Avg total
83.0Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)83.076.9159.9+6.162%
Season at home (4)77.879.0156.8-1.250%
Season away (4)88.274.8163.0+13.575%
Last 10 (10)83.075.3158.3+7.760%
Last 5 (5)82.679.2161.8+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)78.274.5152.8+3.875%
vs Similar (9)77.476.6154.0+0.956%
vs Weaker (17)83.973.5157.4+10.471%
This opponent (Turkey) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#3
W
94-68
94
68
+26
A12/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
83-88
83
88
-5
H14/09
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H27/11
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
85-60
85
60
+25
A30/11
World Cup
Serbia
#21
W
82-78
82
78
+4
A27/02
World Cup
Serbia
#21
W
94-86
94
86
+8
H02/03
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
W
82-75
82
75
+7
A02/07
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
95-72
95
72
+23
H06/07
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
94-66
94
66
+28
H28/08
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
110-73
110
73
+37
A31/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-16
23-15
23-20
22-17
22-24
24-16
21-26
16-22
29-20
17-25
21-13
26-13
23-17
18-8
24-17
20-18
22-13
24-18
11-23
25-24
28-21
20-23
28-19
18-23
17-18
17-21
25-18
23-18
22-19
25-22
29-11
19-20
27-13
28-21
20-13
19-19
33-14
27-23
20-19
30-17
164.9Avg total
91.2Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)91.972.6164.5+19.2100%
Season at home (4)94.073.8167.8+20.2100%
Season away (4)89.871.5161.2+18.2100%
Last 10 (10)91.273.7164.9+17.590%
Last 5 (5)95.074.4169.4+20.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)76.083.0159.0-7.00%
vs Similar (5)80.270.2150.4+10.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)89.372.2161.6+17.195%
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +7.4+7.4Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +4.3+4.3Q4Q4: +3.9+3.9Q4: +2.7+2.7
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +7.4+7.4Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +4.3+4.3Q4Q4: +3.9+3.9Q4: +2.7+2.7
ItalyTurkey
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cyprus
#24
W
40-19
40
19
+21
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
51-27
51
27
+24
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H02/03
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
58-46
58
46
+12
A02/07
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H05/07
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/08
World Cup
Serbia
#21
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H31/08
World Cup
76.6Avg total
39.8Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.536.876.3+2.850%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.537.474.9+0.138%-
Last 30 away (14)41.936.177.9+5.864%-
Last 10 (10)39.836.876.6+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)39.839.078.8+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)39.539.278.8+0.250%-
vs Similar (9)38.438.977.3-0.444%-
vs Weaker (17)40.135.175.2+5.153%-
This opponent (Turkey) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TurkeyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#3
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A12/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H14/09
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H27/11
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
41-25
41
25
+16
A30/11
World Cup
Serbia
#21
W
46-31
46
31
+15
A27/02
World Cup
Serbia
#21
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H02/03
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A02/07
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H06/07
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
55-34
55
34
+21
H28/08
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
60-37
60
37
+23
A31/08
World Cup
83.9Avg total
47.2Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.236.980.0+6.370%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.638.582.1+5.171%-
Last 30 away (13)42.634.877.4+7.869%-
Last 10 (10)47.236.783.9+10.590%-
Last 5 (5)48.839.087.8+9.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)39.244.884.0-5.620%-
vs Similar (5)39.235.474.6+3.860%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)45.135.280.4+9.985%-
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.8
49.1%
-33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.6
34.0%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.7
73.7%
-15.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Turkeytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Turkey: 88.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.420.8
57.1%
-41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.510.3
40.4%
-30.9
🏀 Free throws21.316.2
76.1%
-16.2
They take 61.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
LLWWWWWLLW
Turkey
WWWWWWWWLW
#29
League position
#4
+12.0
Net rating
+22.6
108.6
Offensive rating
123.2
96.7
Defensive rating
100.6
50.0%
Effective FG%
58.6%
47.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.0%
15.4%
Turnover %
15.5%
30.5%
Off. rebound %
33.9%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.34
34.0%
3-point %
40.4%
75.0%
Assist %
69.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Italy   ■ Turkey
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Italy wins
0
Turkey wins
DateGameScore
20/02/25Turkey v Italy67-80
22/02/24Italy v Turkey87-80
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/26HSerbia64-76
28/08/26ABosnia & Herzegovina76-78
05/07/26HLithuania87-84
02/07/26AIceland102-83
02/03/26HGreat Britain84-75
27/02/26AGreat Britain93-57
30/11/25ALithuania82-81
27/11/25HIceland76-81
07/09/25HSlovenia77-84
04/09/25HCyprus89-54
Turkeylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/26AIceland110-73
28/08/26HLithuania94-66
06/07/26HSwitzerland95-72
02/07/26ABosnia & Herzegovina82-75
02/03/26HSerbia94-86
27/02/26ASerbia82-78
30/11/25ASwitzerland85-60
27/11/25HBosnia & Herzegovina93-71
14/09/25HGermany83-88
12/09/25AGreece94-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game83.077.888.2
Allowed / game76.979.074.8
Point differential+6.1-1.2+13.5
Avg total159.9156.8163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Turkey
World Cup 2027
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game91.994.089.8
Allowed / game72.673.871.5
Point differential+19.2+20.2+18.2
Avg total164.5167.8161.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%75%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada880100%100.981.1+19.8
4 Turkey880100%91.972.6+19.2
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Dominican Republic65183%93.377.8+15.5
10 Mexico65183%93.781.8+11.8
11 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
12 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
13 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
14 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
15 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
16 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
17 Argentina86275%87.271.5+15.8
18 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
19 Brazil86275%90.878.1+12.6
20 Uruguay86275%84.473.4+11.0
21 Serbia86275%87.178.1+9.0
22 Ukraine129375%83.275.9+7.3
23 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
24 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
25 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
28 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
29 Italy85362%83.076.9+6.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Georgia85362%85.582.6+2.9
32 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
35 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
36 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
37 Portugal84450%83.879.5+4.2
38 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
39 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
40 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
41 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
42 Bahamas84450%93.292.1+1.1
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Montenegro84450%71.879.1-7.4
52 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
53 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
57 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
58 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
59 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
60 Iceland83538%81.293.8-12.5
61 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
62 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
65 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
66 Chile72529%71.380.6-9.3
67 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
68 Puerto Rico82625%85.990.2-4.4
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Panama82625%75.488.9-13.5
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.
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