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Italy vs Serbia Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 31 Aug 2026
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 64-76
19-20 12-20 23-17 10-19
Position#29
Record5-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game77.0
vs
Serbia 🏆
Position#21
Record5-2
FormLLWWW
Points / game88.7
Allowed / game80.1
EuropeWorld CupRound 2· Vitrifrigo Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Italy v Serbia
31 Aug 2026
ITAL64
SERB76
19 Aug 2022
ITAL86
SERB90
04 Sep 2019
ITAL77
SERB92
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Serbia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Spain
#15
W
67-63
67
63
+4
58avg 80
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
89-54
89
54
+35
87avg 80
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
77avg 80
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
76-81
76
81
-5
no box
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
82-81
82
81
+1
no box
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
93-57
93
57
+36
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
84-75
84
75
+9
no box
H02/03
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
102-83
102
83
+19
no box
A02/07
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
87-84
87
84
+3
no box
H05/07
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
L
76-78
76
78
-2
no box
A28/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-18
20-18
19-11
18-16
24-6
16-13
27-24
22-11
11-29
29-21
16-22
21-12
21-21
13-17
20-23
22-20
16-19
18-20
20-15
28-27
32-14
19-13
14-19
28-11
21-21
22-17
21-21
20-16
27-25
31-21
26-16
18-21
22-25
18-12
19-24
28-23
17-18
10-16
27-24
22-20
157.3Avg total
83.3Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)85.777.0162.7+8.771%
Season at home (3)82.380.0162.3+2.367%
Season away (4)88.274.8163.0+13.575%
Last 10 (10)83.374.0157.3+9.370%
Last 5 (5)88.475.4163.8+13.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)79.477.2156.6+2.260%
vs Similar ◀ (8)79.176.6155.8+2.562%
vs Weaker (17)83.973.5157.4+10.471%
This opponent (Serbia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SerbiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSerbia
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#23
W
82-60
82
60
+22
90avg 86
H01/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
90-95
90
95
-5
84avg 86
A03/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
86-92
86
92
-6
84avg 86
H06/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#43
W
90-86
90
86
+4
no box
H27/11
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
W
74-72
74
72
+2
no box
A30/11
World Cup
Turkey
#4
L
78-82
78
82
-4
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Turkey
#4
L
86-94
86
94
-8
no box
A02/03
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
97-73
97
73
+24
no box
A02/07
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
W
94-81
94
81
+13
no box
H06/07
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
102-73
102
73
+29
no box
H28/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-5
18-18
16-20
21-17
18-19
31-27
24-28
17-21
24-28
24-16
18-24
20-24
20-30
14-27
25-13
31-16
13-15
22-24
16-19
23-14
13-22
18-24
23-11
24-25
21-28
23-20
19-28
23-18
30-27
19-17
17-13
31-16
27-15
27-20
21-24
19-22
25-27
27-15
18-19
32-12
168.7Avg total
87.9Scored
80.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.780.1168.9+8.671%
Season at home (4)91.080.5171.5+10.575%
Season away (3)85.779.7165.3+6.067%
Last 10 (10)87.980.8168.7+7.160%
Last 5 (5)91.480.6172.0+10.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)87.289.2176.5-2.025%
vs Similar ◀ (4)97.878.2176.0+19.575%
vs Weaker (22)89.072.4161.4+16.691%
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +5.0+5.0Q4: +5.6+5.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +5.0+5.0Q4: +5.6+5.6
ItalySerbia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spain
#15
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
40-19
40
19
+21
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H27/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A30/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
51-27
51
27
+24
A27/02
World Cup
Great Britain
#81
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H02/03
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
58-46
58
46
+12
A02/07
World Cup
Lithuania
#41
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H05/07
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/08
World Cup
76.1Avg total
39.7Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.636.676.2+3.050%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.637.174.8+0.538%-
Last 30 away (14)41.936.177.9+5.864%-
Last 10 (10)39.736.476.1+3.350%-
Last 5 (5)43.836.480.2+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.238.676.8-0.440%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)39.438.878.1+0.650%-
vs Weaker (17)40.135.175.2+5.153%-
This opponent (Serbia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SerbiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#23
W
45-23
45
23
+22
H01/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A03/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H06/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#43
L
34-57
34
57
-23
H27/11
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A30/11
World Cup
Turkey
#4
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H27/02
World Cup
Turkey
#4
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A02/03
World Cup
Switzerland
#43
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A02/07
World Cup
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#57
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H06/07
World Cup
Iceland
#60
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H28/08
World Cup
86.5Avg total
44.1Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.238.184.3+8.177%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.938.184.0+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)46.538.284.7+8.373%-
Last 10 (10)44.142.486.5+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)46.043.089.0+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)44.044.888.8-0.850%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)52.039.891.8+12.275%-
vs Weaker (22)45.536.682.2+8.982%-
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.8
49.1%
-33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.6
34.0%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.7
73.7%
-15.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Serbiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Serbia: 88.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.921.9
62.8%
-43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.79.1
36.8%
-27.3
🏀 Free throws22.117.3
78.3%
-17.3
They take 59.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Aug 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
LWWWWWLLWW
Serbia
WWWLLWWLLW
#29
League position
#21
+12.0
Net rating
+16.4
108.6
Offensive rating
121.2
96.7
Defensive rating
104.7
50.0%
Effective FG%
59.6%
47.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.6%
15.4%
Turnover %
17.0%
30.5%
Off. rebound %
30.8%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.37
34.0%
3-point %
36.8%
75.0%
Assist %
72.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Italy   ■ Serbia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Italy wins
3
Serbia wins
DateGameScore
01/09/23Serbia v Italy76-78
11/09/22Serbia v Italy86-94
19/08/22Italy v Serbia86-90
04/07/21Serbia v Italy95-102
04/09/19Italy v Serbia77-92
23/08/17Serbia v Italy73-65
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/08/26ABosnia & Herzegovina76-78
05/07/26HLithuania87-84
02/07/26AIceland102-83
02/03/26HGreat Britain84-75
27/02/26AGreat Britain93-57
30/11/25ALithuania82-81
27/11/25HIceland76-81
07/09/25HSlovenia77-84
04/09/25HCyprus89-54
02/09/25HSpain67-63
Serbialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/08/26HIceland102-73
06/07/26HBosnia & Herzegovina94-81
02/07/26ASwitzerland97-73
02/03/26ATurkey86-94
27/02/26HTurkey78-82
30/11/25ABosnia & Herzegovina74-72
27/11/25HSwitzerland90-86
06/09/25HFinland86-92
03/09/25ATurkey90-95
01/09/25HCzech Republic82-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL71%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game85.782.388.2
Allowed / game77.080.074.8
Point differential+8.7+2.3+13.5
Avg total162.7162.3163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Serbia
World Cup 2027
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW71%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %71%75%67%
Points / game88.791.085.7
Allowed / game80.180.579.7
Point differential+8.6+10.5+6.0
Avg total168.9171.5165.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%50%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada770100%101.479.6+21.9
4 Turkey770100%89.372.6+16.7
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Argentina76186%86.667.9+18.7
10 Brazil76186%93.178.0+15.1
11 Mexico54180%96.683.4+13.2
12 Dominican Republic54180%91.880.2+11.6
13 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
14 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
15 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
16 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
17 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
18 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
19 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
20 Ukraine118373%81.974.7+7.2
21 Uruguay75271%85.073.1+11.9
22 Italy75271%85.777.0+8.7
23 Serbia75271%88.780.1+8.6
24 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
25 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
26 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
27 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
28 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
29 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
32 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
33 Portugal74357%82.976.9+6.0
34 Georgia74357%83.781.6+2.1
35 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
36 Montenegro74357%69.376.4-7.1
37 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
38 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
39 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
40 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
41 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
42 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
52 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
53 Bahamas73443%92.393.6-1.3
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Iceland73443%82.491.4-9.0
57 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
58 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
59 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
60 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
61 Chile62433%72.277.2-5.0
62 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
63 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
64 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
65 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
66 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
67 Puerto Rico72529%87.491.7-4.3
68 Panama72529%74.487.3-12.9
69 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
70 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
71 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
72 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
73 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
74 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy1912231064
Serbia2020171976
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