PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Lafayette hosts Penn State on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model naming Lafayette the favourite and predicting a decisive win. Lafayette's season record stands at 1-2, averaging 73.7 points scored and 76.7 points allowed, while Penn State is 2-1, scoring 90.0 points and conceding 77.3. Lafayette's sole home game was a 104-67 victory, their last five games yielding two wins and three losses, including a 104-67 home win over Kings (PA) Monarchs and a 57-67 loss to Saint Josephs Hawks away. Penn State's last five games also feature two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 97-93 home win over Chattanooga Mocs and a 97-57 home win over Canisius, but a 76-82 loss to Pittsburgh at home. Historically, Penn State has one win against Lafayette, with the last encounter ending 70-57 in favour of Penn State on 25 November 2022. The model assigns a 74% probability to Lafayette winning and 26% to Penn State, projecting a final score of 81-73 and a total of 153.9 points; the home team is 4% likely to cover the spread and 4% likely to hit the over, with a 4% chance of overtime. Lafayette's recent 104-67 home triumph suggests they will carry momentum into this contest.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 73.7 | 76.7 | 150.3 | -3.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 104.0 | 67.0 | 171.0 | +37.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 58.5 | 81.5 | 140.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 72.1 | 76.2 | 148.3 | -4.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.2 | 77.8 | 154.0 | -1.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 66.9 | 75.3 | 142.2 | -8.4 | 25% |
| vs Similar (17) | 69.6 | 72.7 | 142.4 | -3.1 | 41% |
| vs Weaker ◀ | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 90.0 | 77.3 | 167.3 | +12.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 90.0 | 77.3 | 167.3 | +12.7 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 73.9 | 80.0 | 153.9 | -6.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.6 | 76.4 | 156.0 | +3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 72.0 | 82.0 | 153.9 | -10.0 | 26% |
| vs Similar (6) | 77.7 | 83.0 | 160.7 | -5.3 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 97.0 | 57.0 | 154.0 | +40.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.5 | 34.9 | 67.4 | -2.4 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 34.7 | 33.4 | 68.1 | +1.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 30.3 | 36.5 | 66.7 | -6.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.0 | 35.7 | 70.7 | -0.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 35.2 | 73.0 | +2.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 31.4 | 35.2 | 66.7 | -3.8 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 31.9 | 34.9 | 66.9 | -3.0 | 35% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.3 | 39.2 | 72.5 | -5.9 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 35.1 | 35.9 | 71.0 | -0.8 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 30.2 | 45.0 | 75.2 | -14.8 | 9% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.9 | 37.4 | 69.3 | -5.5 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.4 | 35.2 | 73.6 | +3.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 33.2 | 39.6 | 72.8 | -6.4 | 30% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 31.5 | 40.0 | 71.5 | -8.5 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 47.0 | 26.0 | 73.0 | +21.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | A | Saint Josephs Hawks | 57-67 OT |
| 05/11/26 | H | Kings (PA) Monarchs | 104-67 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Butler | 60-96 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Holy Cross | 77-82 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Army | 83-77 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Colgate | 70-69 |
| 22/02/26 | H | American University | 61-75 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Holy Cross | 86-83 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Lehigh | 69-78 |
| 12/02/26 | H | Loyola Maryland | 54-68 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/26 | H | Pittsburgh | 76-82 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Chattanooga Mocs | 97-93 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Canisius | 97-57 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Northwestern | 66-76 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Rutgers | 62-74 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Ohio State | 62-94 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Iowa | 71-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Nebraska | 64-87 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Rutgers | 72-85 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Oregon | 72-83 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 73.7 | 104.0 | 58.5 |
| Allowed / game | 76.7 | 67.0 | 81.5 |
| Point differential | -3.0 | +37.0 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 150.3 | 171.0 | 140.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WWL | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 90.0 | 90.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 77.3 | 77.3 | - |
| Point differential | +12.7 | +12.7 | - |
| Avg total | 167.3 | 167.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 33% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Navy | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 69.0 | 65.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 |  Boston University | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.3 | 74.7 | -1.3 |
| 3 |  Army | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 84.0 | 62.5 | +21.5 |
| 4 |  Loyola Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 70.7 | +3.0 |
| 5 | Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 76.7 | -3.0 |
| 6 |  Lehigh | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 73.7 | -9.3 |
| 7 |  Colgate | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 75.0 | 83.5 | -8.5 |
| 8 |  American University | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 63.0 | 80.5 | -17.5 |
| 9 |  Bucknell | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 64.5 | 89.0 | -24.5 |
| 10 |  Holy Cross | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 62.5 | 99.0 | -36.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Illinois | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 116.0 | 57.5 | +58.5 |
| 2 |  Michigan State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 60.0 | +33.5 |
| 3 |  Iowa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 50.5 | +33.0 |
| 4 |  Rutgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.0 | +32.0 |
| 5 |  UCLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 69.0 | +30.0 |
| 6 |  Nebraska | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 86.5 | 61.0 | +25.5 |
| 7 |  Oregon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 |
| 8 |  Indiana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 |
| 9 |  USC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 74.5 | +19.5 |
| 10 |  Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 |
| 11 |  Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 |
| 12 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 13 |  Wisconsin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 66.0 | +8.0 |
| 14 | Penn State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 77.3 | +12.7 |
| 15 |  Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 |
| 16 |  Purdue | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 71.3 | +6.7 |
| 17 |  Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 |
| 18 |  Michigan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 76.5 | +4.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lafayette | 54 | 35 | 89 |
| Penn State | 16 | 30 | 46 |
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