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Liberty vs Middle Tenn. St. Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 15 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 01:30
Scheduled
Position#154
Record2-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game64.0
vs
Position#139
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game76.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Liberty v Middle Tenn. St.
14 Jan 2027
LIBE v MIDD
upcoming
04 Jan 2025
LIBE73
MIDD63
08 Feb 2024
LIBE88
MIDD53
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Liberty win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Middle Tenn. St. win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LibertyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida International
#232
W
90-89 OT
90
89
+1
H19/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
73-94
73
94
-21
H21/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
65-74
65
74
-9
A27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H07/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H11/03
NCAA
High Point
#61
L
57-72
57
72
-15
A02/11
NCAA
Boyce
#514
W
113-54
113
54
+59
H07/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#357
W
74-66
74
66
+8
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-40
39-40
37-48
36-46
29-32
36-42
27-34
54-44
40-45
31-31
41-31
38-41
37-33
32-44
34-37
23-35
51-19
62-35
40-34
34-32
152.4Avg total
77.2Scored
75.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.364.0145.3+17.367%
Season at home (2)93.560.0153.5+33.5100%
Season away (1)57.072.0129.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)77.275.2152.4+2.050%
Last 5 (5)78.468.2146.6+10.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)69.972.0141.9-2.158%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)78.871.1149.9+7.882%
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Middle Tenn. St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Delaware
#326
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H21/02
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H27/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
86-85 OT
86
85
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
73-67
73
67
+6
A06/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
75-63
75
63
+12
A07/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
69-80
69
80
-11
A12/03
NCAA
Fisk
#476
W
117-73
117
73
+44
H02/11
NCAA
Kansas
#12
L
45-89
45
89
-44
A07/11
NCAA
Evansville
#230
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H11/11
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#223
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-20
47-46
34-26
43-41
36-42
40-34
33-34
40-33
37-27
38-36
25-39
44-41
52-32
65-41
14-36
31-53
27-20
46-48
50-32
38-43
151.4Avg total
78.1Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.876.2157.0+4.575%
Season at home (3)92.772.0164.7+20.7100%
Season away (1)45.089.0134.0-44.00%
Last 10 (10)78.173.3151.4+4.880%
Last 5 (5)78.477.0155.4+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)65.677.0142.6-11.433%
vs Similar (14)74.670.9145.5+3.657%
vs Weaker (6)85.574.3159.8+11.267%
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +3.1+3.12nd half2nd half: -0.5-0.52nd half: +1.6+1.6
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +3.1+3.12nd half2nd half: -0.5-0.52nd half: +1.6+1.6
LibertyMiddle Tenn. St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LibertyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida International
#232
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H19/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H21/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H11/03
NCAA
High Point
#61
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A02/11
NCAA
Boyce
#514
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H07/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#357
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H14/11
NCAA
73.0Avg total
37.7Scored
35.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.032.969.9+4.163%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.632.574.1+9.181%-
Last 30 away (14)31.833.365.1-1.543%-
Last 10 (10)37.735.373.0+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)40.630.871.4+9.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)32.835.067.8-2.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)39.232.271.4+7.082%-
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Middle Tenn. St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Delaware
#326
W
31-20
31
20
+11
H21/02
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
34-26
34
26
+8
H27/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A06/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
37-27
37
27
+10
A07/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Fisk
#476
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H02/11
NCAA
Kansas
#12
L
14-36
14
36
-22
A07/11
NCAA
Evansville
#230
W
27-20
27
20
+7
H11/11
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#223
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H14/11
NCAA
64.7Avg total
33.9Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.633.668.3+1.043%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.231.967.1+3.450%-
Last 30 away (14)33.935.669.6-1.736%-
Last 10 (10)33.930.864.7+3.160%-
Last 5 (5)33.631.865.4+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)31.937.068.9-5.122%-
vs Similar (14)35.133.268.3+1.936%-
vs Weaker (6)38.529.367.8+9.2100%-
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Liberty wins
1
Middle Tenn. St. wins
Libertylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HN. Carolina Central74-66
07/11/26HBoyce113-54
02/11/26AHigh Point57-72
11/03/26HMissouri State69-77
07/03/26HSam Houston St.79-72
06/03/26HLouisiana Tech71-76
28/02/26AJacksonville State81-78
27/02/26AKennesaw State65-74
21/02/26HWestern Kentucky73-94
19/02/26HFlorida International90-89 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSoutheast Missouri State88-75
11/11/26HEvansville73-68
07/11/26AKansas45-89
02/11/26HFisk117-73
12/03/26ALouisiana Tech69-80
07/03/26AMissouri State75-63
06/03/26AFlorida International73-67
28/02/26HNew Mexico State86-85 OT
27/02/26HUTEP77-67
21/02/26HDelaware78-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Liberty
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game81.393.557.0
Allowed / game64.060.072.0
Point differential+17.3+33.5-15.0
Avg total145.3153.5129.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Middle Tenn. St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game80.892.745.0
Allowed / game76.272.089.0
Point differential+4.5+20.7-44.0
Avg total157.0164.7134.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Middle Tenn. St.43175%80.876.2+4.5
6 Liberty32167%81.364.0+17.3
7 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
8 Louisiana Tech42250%69.863.2+6.5
9 Jacksonville State42250%80.075.5+4.5
10 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
11 Delaware31233%76.762.7+14.0
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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