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Lithuania vs Latvia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 15:30
Final 88-79
28-18 19-19 19-17 22-25
Position#4
Record4-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game78.6
vs
Position#11
Record3-2
FormLWLWW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game76.8
EuropeEuroBasket· Xiaomi Arena
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lithuania winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Latvia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Estonia
#10
L
59-65
59
65
-6
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
82-67
82
67
+15
80avg 87
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
94-72
94
72
+22
103avg 87
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-48
82
48
+34
86avg 87
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
82-75
82
75
+7
78avg 87
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
94-70
94
70
+24
95avg 87
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
94-67
94
67
+27
98avg 87
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
88-107
88
107
-19
88avg 87
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
81-78
81
78
+3
76avg 87
A01/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
W
74-71
74
71
+3
69avg 87
H03/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
19-24
13-9
9-15
23-9
21-18
20-16
18-24
23-27
20-19
21-16
30-10
15-18
22-14
25-10
20-6
28-19
32-24
7-21
15-11
23-15
18-18
24-17
29-20
26-15
21-13
19-17
28-22
20-32
27-23
25-28
16-24
20-21
25-15
12-12
24-30
14-21
19-18
21-14
20-18
155.0Avg total
83.0Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)86.278.6164.8+7.680%
Season at home (3)85.381.7167.0+3.767%
Season away (2)87.574.0161.5+13.5100%
Last 10 (10)83.072.0155.0+11.080%
Last 5 (5)86.278.6164.8+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)74.693.4168.0-18.80%
vs Similar ◀ (10)84.078.0162.0+6.060%
vs Weaker (15)86.468.1154.5+18.393%
This opponent (Latvia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LatviaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLatvia
Date
Competition
Slovakia
#23
W
64-52
64
52
+12
no box
H25/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
W
75-72
75
72
+3
68avg 78
H22/11
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
W
85-83
85
83
+2
79avg 78
A25/11
EuroBasket
Spain
#22
W
83-66
83
66
+17
79avg 78
H20/02
EuroBasket
Slovakia
#23
W
89-68
89
68
+21
86avg 78
A23/02
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
73-93
73
93
-20
62avg 78
H27/08
EuroBasket
Estonia
#18
W
72-70
72
70
+2
64avg 78
A29/08
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
80-84
80
84
-4
74avg 78
H30/08
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
78-62
78
62
+16
79avg 78
A01/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
109-75
109
75
+34
113avg 78
A03/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-10
16-17
14-11
19-14
17-25
25-19
17-13
16-15
16-20
20-21
22-25
27-17
20-17
21-17
22-16
20-16
20-15
19-18
30-18
20-17
21-24
18-23
16-25
18-21
17-21
21-21
25-19
9-9
18-22
20-20
18-25
24-17
23-21
27-7
15-15
13-19
30-24
28-20
28-12
23-19
153.3Avg total
80.8Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)82.476.8159.2+5.660%
Season at home (2)76.588.5165.0-12.00%
Season away (3)86.369.0155.3+17.3100%
Last 10 (10)80.872.5153.3+8.380%
Last 5 (5)82.476.8159.2+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)76.092.7168.7-16.70%
vs Similar ◀ (7)81.676.3157.9+5.386%
vs Weaker (20)84.268.2152.4+16.0100%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +3.8+3.8Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: +2.5+2.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +3.8+3.8Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: +2.5+2.5
LithuaniaLatvia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Estonia
#10
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A01/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H03/09
EuroBasket
81.4Avg total
43.4Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.738.981.6+3.863%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.640.584.1+3.156%-
Last 30 away (14)41.637.178.7+4.671%-
Last 10 (10)43.438.081.4+5.460%-
Last 5 (5)42.638.280.8+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.044.482.4-6.420%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)43.940.484.3+3.570%-
vs Weaker (15)43.536.179.5+7.473%-
This opponent (Latvia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LatviaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Slovakia
#23
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H25/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H22/11
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A25/11
EuroBasket
Spain
#22
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H20/02
EuroBasket
Slovakia
#23
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A23/02
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H27/08
EuroBasket
Estonia
#18
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A29/08
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H30/08
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
50-28
50
28
+22
A01/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
58-44
58
44
+14
A03/09
EuroBasket
79.4Avg total
41.2Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.536.778.2+4.963%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.235.976.2+4.369%-
Last 30 away (17)42.537.279.8+5.359%-
Last 10 (10)41.238.279.4+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)44.640.685.2+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)39.744.083.7-4.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)37.139.977.0-2.714%-
vs Weaker (20)43.434.577.8+8.990%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 82.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.621.8
56.5%
52.4%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.57.3
32.4%
33.4%21.9
🏀 Free throws23.816.9
71.0%
73.1%16.9
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Latviatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Latvia: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.715.1
52.6%
52.4%30.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.311.2
35.8%
33.4%33.6
🏀 Free throws21.016.0
76.2%
73.1%16.0
They take 60.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lithuania
WWLWWWWWWL
Latvia
WWLWLWWWWW
#4
League position
#11
+15.0
Net rating
+11.2
110.2
Offensive rating
113.3
95.2
Defensive rating
102.1
53.6%
Effective FG%
53.2%
47.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
18.7%
Turnover %
16.1%
32.7%
Off. rebound %
28.8%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.4%
3-point %
35.8%
72.9%
Assist %
73.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence110.2 · 113.3Defence95.2 · 102.1Shooting53.6% · 53.2%3-point %32.4% · 35.8%Ball care18.7% · 16.1%Off. rebounds32.7% · 28.8%Free throws0.39 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Lithuania   ■ Latvia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Lithuania wins
1
Latvia wins
DateGameScore
09/09/23Latvia v Lithuania98-63
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/09/25HSweden74-71
01/09/25AFinland81-78
30/08/25HGermany88-107
29/08/25HMontenegro94-67
27/08/25AGreat Britain94-70
24/02/25HEstonia82-75
21/02/25APoland82-48
24/11/24HNorth Macedonia94-72
21/11/24ANorth Macedonia82-67
26/02/24AEstonia59-65
Latvialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/09/25ACzech Republic109-75
01/09/25APortugal78-62
30/08/25HSerbia80-84
29/08/25AEstonia72-70
27/08/25HTurkey73-93
23/02/25ASlovakia89-68
20/02/25HSpain83-66
25/11/24ABelgium85-83
22/11/24HBelgium75-72
25/02/24HSlovakia64-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lithuania
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW80%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game86.285.387.5
Allowed / game78.681.774.0
Point differential+7.6+3.7+13.5
Avg total164.8167.0161.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Latvia
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW60%
HomeLL0%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %60%0%100%
Points / game82.476.586.3
Allowed / game76.888.569.0
Point differential+5.6-12.0+17.3
Avg total159.2165.0155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%0%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany660100%102.370.5+31.8
2 Turkey660100%90.773.0+17.7
3 Greece54180%86.470.8+15.6
4 France54180%92.278.2+14.0
5 Serbia54180%86.873.6+13.2
6 Italy54180%79.266.6+12.6
7 Lithuania54180%86.278.6+7.6
8 Latvia53260%82.476.8+5.6
9 Finland53260%85.281.2+4.0
10 Slovenia53260%93.890.4+3.4
11 Israel53260%83.480.2+3.2
12 Poland53260%80.077.4+2.6
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina53260%80.280.2+0.0
14 Spain52340%79.470.8+8.6
15 Georgia52340%73.477.2-3.8
16 Belgium52340%72.680.6-8.0
17 Portugal62433%62.275.5-13.3
18 Estonia51420%70.479.4-9.0
19 Montenegro51420%75.691.0-15.4
20 Great Britain51420%70.896.8-26.0
21 Sweden61517%80.383.8-3.5
22 Iceland5050%72.687.8-15.2
23 Czech Republic5050%67.686.8-19.2
24 Cyprus5050%59.092.0-33.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Lithuania2819192288
Latvia1819172579
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