PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Louisville hosts Stetson on 19 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Louisville the clear favourite, assigning a 99% chance of victory largely because the Cardinals have a 2-0 record, average 95.5 points scored and 63.5 allowed per game, and sit 10th in the league, while Stetson is 0-4 with 60.5 points scored and 83.0 allowed per game and ranked 387th. Louisville's home form is perfect, 2-0 with the same averages, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 107-57 win over Morehead State and a 84-70 win over Chattanooga Mocs; Stetson has lost all five of its recent games, most recently falling 62-75 to Howard, 53-91 to West Virginia and 55-81 to South Carolina. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 96-64 score for Louisville, a total of 159.9 points, and gives the Cardinals a 99% probability of covering the home spread, with a 1% chance of a Stetson win and a 0% overtime probability. The Cardinals' dominant season numbers and Stetson's struggles make the projected outcome unsurprising.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 95.5 | 63.5 | 159.0 | +32.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 95.5 | 63.5 | 159.0 | +32.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.6 | 72.7 | 152.3 | +6.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.2 | 72.2 | 155.4 | +11.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 62.5 | 83.5 | 146.0 | -21.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (8) | 75.4 | 81.4 | 156.8 | -6.0 | 25% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (20) | 86.8 | 70.3 | 157.1 | +16.5 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 60.5 | 83.0 | 143.5 | -22.5 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (4) | 60.5 | 83.0 | 143.5 | -22.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.9 | 78.8 | 149.7 | -7.9 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 60.4 | 80.2 | 140.6 | -19.8 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 69.6 | 81.8 | 151.3 | -12.2 | 17% |
| vs Similar (6) | 76.5 | 73.2 | 149.7 | +3.3 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 95.0 | 76.0 | 171.0 | +19.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.0 | 33.9 | 73.8 | +6.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.6 | 31.2 | 72.8 | +10.4 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 38.1 | 36.9 | 75.0 | +1.1 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.2 | 32.9 | 72.1 | +6.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.6 | 33.6 | 75.2 | +8.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 37.5 | 38.0 | 75.5 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 34.2 | 36.2 | 70.5 | -2.0 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (20) | 42.5 | 32.5 | 75.0 | +10.0 | 65% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.9 | 38.8 | 72.6 | -4.9 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (10) | 35.3 | 37.4 | 72.7 | -2.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (20) | 33.1 | 39.5 | 72.6 | -6.3 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.0 | 40.8 | 73.8 | -7.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.6 | 41.2 | 71.8 | -10.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 33.1 | 39.7 | 72.8 | -6.6 | 26% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 34.7 | 35.2 | 69.8 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 46.0 | 39.0 | 85.0 | +7.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Morehead State | 107-57 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Chattanooga Mocs | 84-70 |
| 21/03/26 | A | Michigan State | 69-77 |
| 19/03/26 | H | South Florida | 83-79 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Miami (FL) | 73-78 |
| 11/03/26 | H | SMU Mustangs | 62-58 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Miami (FL) | 92-89 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Syracuse | 77-62 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Clemson | 75-80 |
| 24/02/26 | A | North Carolina | 74-77 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Howard | 62-75 |
| 07/11/26 | A | West Virginia | 53-91 |
| 04/11/26 | A | South Carolina | 55-81 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Clemson | 72-85 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Austin Peay | 60-69 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Eastern Kentucky | 92-76 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Florida Gulf Coast | 78-63 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Jacksonville Dolphins | 85-89 |
| 21/02/26 | H | North Florida | 76-71 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Central Arkansas | 76-88 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 95.5 | 95.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 63.5 | 63.5 | - |
| Point differential | +32.0 | +32.0 | - |
| Avg total | 159.0 | 159.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLL | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | - | 4 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 60.5 | - | 60.5 |
| Allowed / game | 83.0 | - | 83.0 |
| Point differential | -22.5 | - | -22.5 |
| Avg total | 143.5 | - | 143.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 3 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 7 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 9 |  Georgia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 70.8 | +11.8 |
| 10 |  California | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 85.8 | 74.8 | +11.0 |
| 11 |  Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 12 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 13 |  Wake Forest | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 76.2 | 62.8 | +13.5 |
| 14 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 15 |  Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 16 |  Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 17 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eastern Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 97.0 | 66.5 | +30.5 |
| 2 |  Austin Peay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.7 | 65.7 | +21.0 |
| 3 |  Queens Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 89.2 | 100.2 | -11.0 |
| 4 |  Central Arkansas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.5 | 70.0 | +14.5 |
| 5 |  Lipscomb | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.8 | 78.5 | -3.8 |
| 6 |  North Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 79.0 | -9.2 |
| 7 |  Florida Gulf Coast | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 83.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 |  North Florida | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.8 | 85.8 | -21.0 |
| 9 |  Bellarmine | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 70.4 | 83.8 | -13.4 |
| 10 |  West Georgia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 74.7 | -14.3 |
| 11 | Stetson | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.5 | 83.0 | -22.5 |
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