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Miami (FL) vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 21 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 63-65
37-38 26-27
Position#38
Record15-3
FormWWWWL
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game69.2
Miami (FL)
USA
vs
Florida State 🏆
USA
Position#167
Record7-11
FormLLLLL
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game81.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Miami (FL) v Florida State
20 Jan 2026
MIAM63
FLOR65
08 Jan 2025
MIAM65
FLOR80
17 Jan 2024
MIAM75
FLOR84
25 Feb 2023
MIAM84
FLOR85
22 Jan 2022
MIAM60
FLOR61
24 Feb 2021
MIAM71
FLOR88
18 Jan 2020
MIAM79
FLOR83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami (FL) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami (FL)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#259
W
75-66
75
66
+9
A03/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
88-64
88
64
+24
H06/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
104-79
104
79
+25
H13/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
98-81
98
81
+17
H17/12
NCAA
North Florida
#361
W
105-67
105
67
+38
H21/12
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
76-69
76
69
+7
H31/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A08/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
91-81
91
81
+10
H10/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
81-69
81
69
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
42-26
33-40
34-34
54-30
49-38
55-41
43-43
55-38
51-35
54-32
33-43
43-26
39-38
42-39
47-33
44-48
39-39
42-30
26-35
33-34
158.0Avg total
85.8Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)86.269.2155.3+17.083%
Season at home (12)92.468.1160.5+24.392%
Season away (6)73.771.3145.0+2.367%
Last 10 (10)85.872.2158.0+13.690%
Last 5 (5)77.673.0150.6+4.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)71.382.1153.4-10.818%
vs Similar (4)70.076.5146.5-6.525%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)90.868.1158.9+22.7100%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston
#18
L
67-82
67
82
-15
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
95-103
95
103
-8
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
69-97
69
97
-28
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
96-49
96
49
+47
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
87-63
87
63
+24
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
69-113
69
113
-44
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
86-94
86
94
-8
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H17/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-41
34-41
47-43
48-60
31-42
38-55
54-17
42-32
43-21
44-42
34-40
32-39
42-42
45-49
31-56
38-57
40-43
46-51
34-31
34-38
163.0Avg total
79.0Scored
84.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)82.381.3163.6+0.939%
Season at home (13)85.979.5165.5+6.454%
Season away (5)72.886.0158.8-13.20%
Last 10 (10)79.084.0163.0-5.020%
Last 5 (5)75.289.2164.4-14.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)72.188.0160.1-15.915%
vs Similar (9)77.776.4154.1+1.244%
vs Weaker (8)84.066.6150.6+17.462%
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +3.9+3.91st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +9.7+9.72nd half: -6.3-6.3
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +3.9+3.91st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +9.7+9.72nd half: -6.3-6.3
Miami (FL)Florida State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Miami (FL)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#259
W
42-26
42
26
+16
A03/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H06/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H13/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H17/12
NCAA
North Florida
#361
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H21/12
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H31/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A08/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H10/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A14/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A17/01
NCAA
76.7Avg total
40.3Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.236.774.9+1.543%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.736.477.1+4.256%-
Last 30 away (12)34.637.171.7-2.525%-
Last 10 (10)40.336.476.7+3.950%-
Last 5 (5)36.837.674.4-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)31.441.072.4-9.60%-
vs Similar (4)35.034.869.8+0.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)44.134.178.2+10.173%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston
#18
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A07/12
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
54-17
54
17
+37
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
31-56
31
56
-25
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H17/01
NCAA
76.5Avg total
38.9Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.137.172.1-2.047%-
Last 30 at home (20)36.136.072.1+0.255%-
Last 30 away (10)32.939.372.2-6.430%-
Last 10 (10)38.937.676.5+1.340%-
Last 5 (5)36.242.478.6-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)33.343.576.8-10.223%-
vs Similar (9)34.833.268.0+1.667%-
vs Weaker (8)38.230.969.1+7.462%-
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami (FL) wins
9
Florida State wins
DateGameScore
20/02/25Florida State v Miami (FL)74-66
09/01/25Miami (FL) v Florida State65-80
09/03/24Florida State v Miami (FL)83-75
18/01/24Miami (FL) v Florida State75-84
25/02/23Miami (FL) v Florida State84-85
25/01/23Florida State v Miami (FL)63-86
22/01/22Miami (FL) v Florida State60-61
12/01/22Florida State v Miami (FL)65-64
25/02/21Miami (FL) v Florida State71-88
27/01/21Florida State v Miami (FL)81-59
Miami (FL)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26AClemson59-69
14/01/26ANotre Dame81-69
10/01/26HGeorgia Tech91-81
08/01/26AWake Forest81-77
31/12/25HPittsburgh76-69
21/12/25HNorth Florida105-67
17/12/25HFlorida International98-81
13/12/25HLouisiana Monroe104-79
06/12/25HSouthern Miss88-64
03/12/25AOle Miss75-66
Florida Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/01/26HWake Forest68-69
14/01/26ASyracuse86-94
10/01/26HNC State69-113
03/01/26HDuke87-91
31/12/25ANorth Carolina66-79
23/12/25HJacksonville Dolphins87-63
20/12/25HMiss. Valley St.96-49
17/12/25ADayton69-97
13/12/25HUMass95-103
07/12/25AHouston67-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami (FL)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayWWWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18126
Win %83%92%67%
Points / game86.292.473.7
Allowed / game69.268.171.3
Point differential+17.0+24.3+2.3
Avg total155.3160.5145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%83%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL39%
HomeWWLLL54%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18135
Win %39%54%0%
Points / game82.385.972.8
Allowed / game81.379.586.0
Point differential+0.9+6.4-13.2
Avg total163.6165.5158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%54%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1817194%85.565.1+20.4
2 Virginia1916384%82.469.1+13.3
3 Clemson1916384%77.264.5+12.7
4 Miami (FL)1815383%86.269.2+17.0
5 North Carolina1814478%81.969.6+12.4
6 California1914574%78.870.5+8.3
7 Virginia Tech1914574%82.374.1+8.3
8 Stanford1914574%76.572.2+4.3
9 Louisville1813572%87.969.6+18.4
10 SMU Mustangs1813572%87.376.7+10.6
11 NC State1812667%85.871.6+14.2
12 Syracuse1812667%75.767.7+8.1
13 Wake Forest1811761%81.175.0+6.1
14 Georgia Tech1911858%75.673.1+2.5
15 Notre Dame1810856%73.469.3+4.1
16 Pittsburgh1881044%73.371.1+2.2
17 Boston College1881044%68.668.5+0.1
18 Florida State1871139%82.381.3+0.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Miami (FL)372663
Florida State382765
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