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Michigan State vs USC Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 06 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 80-51
33-17 47-34
Position#29
Record12-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game65.4
Michigan State 🏆
USA
vs
USC
USA
Position#153
Record12-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game76.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Michigan State v USC
05 Jan 2026
MICH80
USC51
17 Mar 2023
MICH72
USC62
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
USC winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit
#184
W
84-56
84
56
+28
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
89-56
89
56
+33
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-52
71
52
+19
H03/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H06/12
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
76-72
76
72
+4
A13/12
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
92-69
92
69
+23
H16/12
NCAA
Oakland
#212
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H20/12
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
114-97
114
97
+17
H30/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
41-25
43-31
47-24
42-32
33-28
41-30
35-21
36-31
34-31
26-35
36-39
40-33
58-28
34-41
39-36
40-34
55-53
59-44
33-33
23-25
144.9Avg total
79.5Scored
65.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)79.065.4144.4+13.686%
Season at home (10)80.266.3146.5+13.990%
Season away (4)76.063.0139.0+13.075%
Last 10 (10)79.565.4144.9+14.180%
Last 5 (5)83.473.2156.6+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)60.066.0126.0-6.00%
vs Similar (13)70.062.8132.8+7.269%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)82.668.9151.4+13.794%
This opponent (USC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
USCUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
W
70-67
70
67
+3
A24/11
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
83-81
83
81
+2
H25/11
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
88-75
88
75
+13
A26/11
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
82-77
82
77
+5
A03/12
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H06/12
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
94-81
94
81
+13
A10/12
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H15/12
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
97-70
97
70
+27
H18/12
NCAA
UC Santa Cruz
#566
W
102-63
102
63
+39
H21/12
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
66-96
66
96
-30
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
34-32
36-35
38-42
45-39
43-43
45-32
39-39
43-38
48-30
28-54
38-38
56-43
33-26
35-35
40-31
57-39
45-26
57-37
31-49
35-47
158.1Avg total
82.6Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)87.776.8164.5+10.986%
Season at home (9)92.075.4167.4+16.689%
Season away (5)80.079.2159.2+0.880%
Last 10 (10)82.675.5158.1+7.180%
Last 5 (5)85.474.2159.6+11.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)75.681.4157.0-5.943%
vs Similar (11)81.077.4158.4+3.655%
vs Weaker (5)99.871.6171.4+28.2100%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.3+9.31st half: +3.3+3.32nd half2nd half: +4.8+4.82nd half: +3.8+3.8
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.3+9.31st half: +3.3+3.32nd half2nd half: +4.8+4.82nd half: +3.8+3.8
Michigan StateUSC
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit
#184
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
47-24
47
24
+23
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
35-21
35
21
+14
H03/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H06/12
NCAA
Penn State
#298
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A13/12
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
58-28
58
28
+30
H16/12
NCAA
Oakland
#212
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H20/12
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
55-53
55
53
+2
H30/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A03/01
NCAA
72.9Avg total
41.1Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.532.869.3+3.750%-
Last 30 at home (20)38.132.770.8+5.465%-
Last 30 away (10)33.433.066.4+0.420%-
Last 10 (10)41.131.872.9+9.380%-
Last 5 (5)44.237.882.0+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.031.065.0+3.0100%-
vs Similar (13)31.331.863.2-0.531%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)40.933.774.6+7.262%-
This opponent (USC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
USCLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A24/11
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H25/11
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A26/11
NCAA
Oregon
#293
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/12
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
48-30
48
30
+18
H06/12
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A10/12
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H15/12
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H18/12
NCAA
UC Santa Cruz
#566
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H21/12
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A03/01
NCAA
74.5Avg total
38.9Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.136.073.1+1.143%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.233.873.0+5.469%-
Last 30 away (14)34.738.573.2-3.814%-
Last 10 (10)38.935.674.5+3.350%-
Last 5 (5)37.434.071.4+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)33.637.470.9-3.829%-
vs Similar (11)38.035.573.5+2.545%-
vs Weaker (5)45.033.478.4+11.680%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Michigan State wins
1
USC wins
DateGameScore
01/02/25USC v Michigan State70-64
17/03/23Michigan State v USC72-62
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26ANebraska56-58
30/12/25HCornell114-97
20/12/25HOakland79-70
16/12/25HToledo92-69
13/12/25APenn State76-72
06/12/25HDuke60-66
03/12/25HIowa71-52
27/11/25HNorth Carolina74-58
25/11/25AEast Carolina89-56
21/11/25HDetroit84-56
USClast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26AMichigan66-96
21/12/25HUC Santa Cruz102-63
18/12/25HUTSA Roadrunners97-70
15/12/25HWashington State68-61
10/12/25ASan Diego Toreros94-81
06/12/25HWashington76-84
03/12/25AOregon82-77
26/11/25AArizona State88-75
25/11/25HSeton Hall83-81
24/11/25ABoise State70-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL86%
HomeWLWWW90%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %86%90%75%
Points / game79.080.276.0
Allowed / game65.466.363.0
Point differential+13.6+13.9+13.0
Avg total144.4146.5139.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%70%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
USC
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL86%
HomeWLWWW89%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1495
Win %86%89%80%
Points / game87.792.080.0
Allowed / game76.875.479.2
Point differential+10.9+16.6+0.8
Avg total164.5167.4159.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%56%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %7%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan13130100%96.766.5+30.2
2 Nebraska15150100%81.165.7+15.3
3 Purdue1413193%86.466.5+19.9
4 Iowa1412286%80.760.1+20.6
5 Michigan State1412286%79.065.4+13.6
6 USC1412286%87.776.8+10.9
7 Illinois1411379%87.168.2+18.9
8 Indiana1411379%85.167.1+18.0
9 Ohio State1410471%84.672.0+12.6
10 UCLA1410471%80.269.3+10.9
11 Washington149564%82.472.5+9.9
12 Wisconsin149564%82.774.3+8.4
13 Minnesota149564%73.565.7+7.8
14 Penn State149564%78.174.2+3.9
15 Northwestern148657%80.470.4+9.9
16 Oregon158753%77.773.3+4.3
17 Rutgers158753%70.372.5-2.3
18 Maryland147750%75.277.7-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan State334780
USC173451
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