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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 117-110
23-32 34-30 32-20 28-28
Position#10
Record38-23
FormWLWWW
Points / game119.1
Allowed / game114.6
vs
Position#25
Record23-36
FormLLLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game117.7
USANBA· Target Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Minnesota Timberwolves v Memphis Grizzlies
27 Nov 2026
MIN v MEM
upcoming
21 Nov 2026
MIN v MEM
upcoming
03 Mar 2026
MIN117
MEM110
17 Dec 2025
MIN110
MEM116
11 Jan 2025
MIN125
MEM127
28 Feb 2024
MIN110
MEM101
18 Jan 2024
MIN118
MEM103
27 Jan 2023
MIN111
MEM100
30 Nov 2022
MIN109
MEM101
29 Apr 2022
MIN106
MEM114
23 Apr 2022
MIN119
MEM118
21 Apr 2022
MIN95
MEM104
24 Feb 2022
MIN119
MEM114
20 Nov 2021
MIN138
MEM95
05 May 2021
MIN135
MEM139
13 Jan 2021
MIN107
MEM118
14 Dec 2020
MIN104
MEM123
12 Dec 2020
MIN105
MEM107
01 Dec 2019
MIN107
MEM115
30 Jan 2019
MIN99
MEM97
18 Nov 2018
MIN87
MEM100
09 Apr 2018
MIN113
MEM94
26 Mar 2018
MIN93
MEM101
04 Feb 2017
MIN99
MEM107
01 Nov 2016
MIN116
MEM80
23 Jan 2016
MIN106
MEM101
15 Nov 2015
MIN106
MEM114
28 Feb 2015
MIN97
MEM101
06 Feb 2015
MIN90
MEM89
02 Apr 2014
MIN102
MEM88
31 Jan 2014
MIN90
MEM94
30 Mar 2013
MIN86
MEM99
17 Apr 2012
MIN84
MEM91
04 Jan 2012
MIN86
MEM90
23 Feb 2011
MIN95
MEM104
02 Feb 2011
MIN84
MEM102
06 Feb 2010
MIN109
MEM102
02 Dec 2009
MIN95
MEM97
11 Mar 2009
MIN104
MEM79
29 Dec 2008
MIN108
MEM98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Memphis Grizzlies winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
128-126
128
126
+2
116avg 111
A05/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
115-119
115
119
-4
102avg 111
H07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
96-115
96
115
-19
82avg 111
H08/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
138-116
138
116
+22
138avg 111
H10/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
133-109
133
109
+24
127avg 111
H12/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
122-111
122
111
+11
115avg 111
H21/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
108-135
108
135
-27
104avg 111
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
124-121
124
121
+3
118avg 111
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 111
A27/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
117-108
117
108
+9
116avg 111
A01/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-35
27-37
35-32
34-22
32-34
38-22
24-33
21-30
19-23
23-31
17-26
37-35
41-34
40-22
25-31
32-29
32-26
29-25
35-31
37-27
40-25
29-32
27-31
26-23
26-35
32-33
20-26
30-41
33-27
29-32
34-35
28-27
29-27
15-11
19-30
31-20
22-31
36-19
32-32
27-26
232.3Avg total
117.5Scored
114.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (61)119.1114.6233.7+4.662%
Season at home (31)115.4110.7226.1+4.765%
Season away (30)123.0118.6241.6+4.460%
Last 10 (10)117.5114.8232.3+2.770%
Last 5 (5)113.0112.6225.6+0.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)116.7113.3230.0+3.367%
vs Similar (16)115.6114.1229.7+1.662%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)124.9116.2241.1+8.755%
This opponent (Memphis Grizzlies) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Memphis GrizzliesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGrizzlies
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
115-135
115
135
-20
104avg 107
A07/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
115-122
115
122
-7
98avg 107
A08/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
113-114
113
114
-1
92avg 107
A10/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
116-122
116
122
-6
96avg 107
A12/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
123-114
123
114
+9
106avg 107
H21/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
120-136
120
136
-16
110avg 107
A22/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
114-123
114
123
-9
109avg 107
H24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
112-133
112
133
-21
106avg 107
H26/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
124-105
124
105
+19
112avg 107
A28/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
125-106
125
106
+19
121avg 107
A01/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-25
28-43
23-38
28-29
30-31
33-32
33-25
19-34
32-32
33-25
33-28
15-29
28-30
26-30
27-33
35-29
28-32
27-35
32-21
36-26
33-39
35-34
26-39
26-24
25-33
36-30
28-29
25-31
31-34
22-40
23-22
36-37
34-20
30-24
37-26
23-35
34-34
31-26
26-23
34-23
238.7Avg total
117.7Scored
121.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)115.7117.7233.4-2.039%
Season at home (29)117.1117.4234.6-0.341%
Season away (30)114.3117.9232.2-3.637%
Last 10 (10)117.7121.0238.7-3.330%
Last 5 (5)119.0120.6239.6-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)115.2122.0237.2-6.816%
vs Similar (10)121.3115.0236.3+6.370%
vs Weaker (1)112.0116.0228.0-4.00%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: -2.0-2.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: -2.0-2.0
Minnesota TimberwolvesMemphis Grizzlies
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
59-72
59
72
-13
A05/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-56
70
56
+14
H07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H08/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
81-56
81
56
+25
H10/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H12/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
69-57
69
57
+12
H21/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
62-59
62
59
+3
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A27/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
58-50
58
50
+8
A01/03
NBA
116.5Avg total
60.4Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.755.8114.5+2.967%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.555.4114.9+4.164%-
Last 30 away (16)58.056.2114.2+1.869%-
Last 10 (10)60.456.1116.5+4.370%-
Last 5 (5)58.254.4112.6+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)49.758.0107.7-8.333%-
vs Similar (16)57.155.6112.7+1.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)63.555.5119.0+8.182%-
This opponent (Memphis Grizzlies) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Memphis GrizzliesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
64-68
64
68
-4
A07/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
D
63-63
63
63
+0
A08/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
65-57
65
57
+8
A10/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
54-60
54
60
-6
A12/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
55-67
55
67
-12
H21/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A22/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
61-63
61
63
-2
H24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
53-74
53
74
-21
H26/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
64-44
64
44
+20
A28/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
65-60
65
60
+5
A01/03
NBA
124.1Avg total
61.2Scored
62.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.759.8120.5+0.950%-
Last 30 at home (15)59.159.9118.9-0.840%-
Last 30 away (15)62.459.7122.1+2.760%-
Last 10 (10)61.262.9124.1-1.730%-
Last 5 (5)62.262.8125.0-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)60.260.9121.2-0.737%-
vs Similar (10)61.957.6119.5+4.380%-
vs Weaker (1)59.060.0119.0-1.00%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 117.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.130.4
58.3%
54.8%60.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.013.2
36.7%
35.8%39.6
🏀 Free throws24.117.1
71.0%
78.1%17.1
They take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Memphis Grizzliestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Memphis Grizzlies: 117.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.929.7
57.2%
54.8%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.613.9
38.0%
35.8%41.7
🏀 Free throws21.516.6
77.2%
78.1%16.6
They take 88.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWWLWWWLLW
Memphis Grizzlies
WWLLLWLLLL
#10
League position
#25
+2.6
Net rating
-3.0
114.5
Offensive rating
108.7
111.8
Defensive rating
111.8
57.0%
Effective FG%
57.1%
54.2%
Opp. effective FG%
58.1%
14.4%
Turnover %
12.9%
26.3%
Off. rebound %
5.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.24
36.7%
3-point %
38.0%
59.4%
Assist %
65.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence114.5 · 108.7Defence111.8 · 111.8Shooting57.0% · 57.1%3-point %36.7% · 38.0%Ball care14.4% · 12.9%Off. rebounds26.3% · 5.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Minnesota Timberwolves   ■ Memphis Grizzlies
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26ADenver Nuggets117-108
27/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers94-88
25/02/26APortland Trail Blazers124-121
23/02/26HPhiladelphia 76ers108-135
21/02/26HDallas Mavericks122-111
12/02/26HPortland Trail Blazers133-109
10/02/26HAtlanta Hawks138-116
08/02/26HLos Angeles Clippers96-115
07/02/26HNew Orleans Pelicans115-119
05/02/26AToronto Raptors128-126
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26AIndiana Pacers125-106
28/02/26ADallas Mavericks124-105
26/02/26HGolden State Warriors112-133
24/02/26HSacramento Kings114-123
22/02/26AMiami Heat120-136
21/02/26HUtah Jazz123-114
12/02/26ADenver Nuggets116-122
10/02/26AGolden State Warriors113-114
08/02/26APortland Trail Blazers115-122
07/02/26APortland Trail Blazers115-135

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeLWWWL65%
AwayLWWWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games613130
Win %62%65%60%
Points / game119.1115.4123.0
Allowed / game114.6110.7118.6
Point differential+4.6+4.7+4.4
Avg total233.7226.1241.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%42%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (19)60% (10)33% (9)
Overtime %5%0%10%
Memphis Grizzlies
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW39%
HomeLWWLL41%
AwayLLLWW37%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592930
Win %39%41%37%
Points / game115.7117.1114.3
Allowed / game117.7117.4117.9
Point differential-2.0-0.3-3.6
Avg total233.4234.6232.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%21%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)29% (7)67% (6)
Overtime %3%3%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder60461477%119.0108.1+10.9
2 Detroit Pistons60451575%117.2109.5+7.7
3 San Antonio Spurs58411771%117.8111.7+6.1
4 Boston Celtics61412067%114.9107.0+7.9
5 New York Knicks60382263%116.9110.9+6.0
6 Houston Rockets60382263%114.7109.4+5.3
7 Minnesota Timberwolves61382362%119.1114.6+4.6
8 Cleveland Cavaliers63392462%119.1114.9+4.2
9 Denver Nuggets62382461%120.5116.1+4.4
10 Los Angeles Lakers59362361%115.9115.2+0.7
11 Toronto Raptors60352558%113.9111.9+2.0
12 Phoenix Suns59342558%112.5110.9+1.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers60332755%116.4115.9+0.5
14 Miami Heat61332854%120.1116.7+3.4
15 Orlando Magic58312753%114.6114.2+0.5
16 Golden State Warriors61313051%115.3114.1+1.3
17 Charlotte Hornets62313150%116.1112.7+3.4
18 Atlanta Hawks62313150%117.4117.4+0.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers60293148%112.1112.1+0.0
20 Portland Trail Blazers62293347%115.2118.4-3.1
21 Milwaukee Bucks60263443%111.3115.5-4.2
22 Chicago Bulls61253641%115.8120.1-4.3
23 Memphis Grizzlies59233639%115.7117.7-2.0
24 Dallas Mavericks61214034%113.5117.7-4.1
25 New Orleans Pelicans62194331%115.1120.4-5.3
26 Utah Jazz61184330%117.9125.8-7.9
27 Washington Wizards61164526%112.2123.0-10.8
28 Indiana Pacers61154625%111.4119.6-8.2
29 Brooklyn Nets61154625%106.8115.6-8.8
30 Sacramento Kings62144823%110.3121.2-10.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minnesota Timberwolves23343228117
Memphis Grizzlies32302028110
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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