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Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 20:30
Final 108-117
31-22 19-36 32-32 26-27
Position#6
Record37-23
FormLWLWL
Points / game120.5
Allowed / game115.9
vs
Position#10
Record37-23
FormWWLWW
Points / game119.2
Allowed / game114.7
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Minnesota Timberwolves
07 Mar 2027
DEN v MIN
upcoming
28 Dec 2026
DEN v MIN
upcoming
27 Apr 2026
DEN125
MIN113
20 Apr 2026
DEN114
MIN119
18 Apr 2026
DEN116
MIN105
01 Mar 2026
DEN108
MIN117
25 Dec 2025
DEN142
MIN138
01 Apr 2025
DEN139
MIN140
12 Mar 2025
DEN95
MIN115
19 May 2024
DEN90
MIN98
14 May 2024
DEN112
MIN97
06 May 2024
DEN80
MIN106
04 May 2024
DEN99
MIN106
10 Apr 2024
DEN116
MIN107
29 Mar 2024
DEN98
MIN111
25 Apr 2023
DEN112
MIN109
19 Apr 2023
DEN122
MIN113
16 Apr 2023
DEN109
MIN80
07 Feb 2023
DEN146
MIN112
18 Jan 2023
DEN122
MIN118
01 Apr 2022
DEN130
MIN136
15 Dec 2021
DEN107
MIN124
05 Jan 2021
DEN123
MIN116
23 Feb 2020
DEN128
MIN116
20 Dec 2019
DEN109
MIN100
10 Apr 2019
DEN99
MIN95
12 Mar 2019
DEN133
MIN107
05 Apr 2018
DEN100
MIN96
20 Dec 2017
DEN104
MIN112
15 Feb 2017
DEN99
MIN112
28 Dec 2016
DEN105
MIN103
11 Dec 2015
DEN111
MIN108
30 Oct 2015
DEN78
MIN95
17 Jan 2015
DEN105
MIN113
26 Dec 2014
DEN106
MIN102
03 Mar 2014
DEN128
MIN132
15 Nov 2013
DEN117
MIN113
09 Mar 2013
DEN111
MIN88
03 Jan 2013
DEN97
MIN101
11 Apr 2012
DEN113
MIN107
20 Feb 2012
DEN103
MIN101
09 Apr 2011
DEN130
MIN106
18 Dec 2010
DEN115
MIN113
11 Jan 2010
DEN105
MIN94
29 Nov 2009
DEN100
MIN106
10 Dec 2008
DEN116
MIN105
16 Nov 2008
DEN90
MIN84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
121-124
121
124
-3
111avg 112
A04/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
127-134 OT
127
134
-7
116avg 112
A05/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
136-120
136
120
+16
138avg 112
A08/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
117-119
117
119
-2
110avg 112
H10/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
122-116
122
116
+6
123avg 112
H12/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
114-115
114
115
-1
109avg 112
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
157-103
157
103
+54
168avg 112
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
117-128
117
128
-11
108avg 112
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
103-84
103
84
+19
97avg 112
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
121-127 OT
121
127
-6
108avg 112
A28/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-32
23-37
30-24
41-31
30-28
23-27
29-33
26-20
39-36
20-29
38-39
39-16
30-26
29-28
33-33
25-32
30-28
30-26
33-27
29-35
24-25
28-20
25-33
37-37
41-27
41-26
43-32
32-18
27-39
40-37
34-19
16-33
21-24
26-24
30-19
26-17
33-19
26-31
24-27
24-30
240.5Avg total
123.5Scored
117.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)120.5115.9236.5+4.662%
Season at home (27)118.2114.3232.5+3.959%
Season away (33)122.5117.2239.7+5.264%
Last 10 (10)123.5117.0240.5+6.540%
Last 5 (5)122.4111.4233.8+11.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)116.0124.0240.0-8.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)110.2114.4224.6-4.229%
vs Weaker (14)120.2113.5233.7+6.779%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
128-137
128
137
-9
117avg 111
A03/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
128-126
128
126
+2
116avg 111
A05/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
115-119
115
119
-4
102avg 111
H07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
96-115
96
115
-19
82avg 111
H08/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
138-116
138
116
+22
138avg 111
H10/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
133-109
133
109
+24
127avg 111
H12/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
122-111
122
111
+11
115avg 111
H21/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
108-135
108
135
-27
104avg 111
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
124-121
124
121
+3
118avg 111
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 111
A27/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-36
29-30
28-32
42-39
32-35
27-37
35-32
34-22
32-34
38-22
24-33
21-30
19-23
23-31
17-26
37-35
41-34
40-22
25-31
32-29
32-26
29-25
35-31
37-27
40-25
29-32
27-31
26-23
26-35
32-33
20-26
30-41
33-27
29-32
34-35
28-27
29-27
15-11
19-30
31-20
236.3Avg total
118.6Scored
117.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)119.2114.7233.9+4.562%
Season at home (31)115.4110.7226.1+4.765%
Season away (29)123.2119.0242.1+4.259%
Last 10 (10)118.6117.7236.3+0.960%
Last 5 (5)116.2112.8229.0+3.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)116.7113.3230.0+3.367%
vs Similar ◀ (16)116.9116.2233.1+0.856%
vs Weaker (11)124.9116.2241.1+8.755%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: +2.5+2.5
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: +2.5+2.5
Denver NuggetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
50-69
50
69
-19
A04/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
53-55
53
55
-2
A05/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A08/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H10/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H12/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
82-53
82
53
+29
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
67-76
67
76
-9
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A28/02
NBA
115.7Avg total
58.8Scored
56.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.555.8113.3+1.747%-
Last 30 at home (12)55.854.9110.7+0.850%-
Last 30 away (18)58.756.3115.0+2.344%-
Last 10 (10)58.856.9115.7+1.950%-
Last 5 (5)61.454.4115.8+7.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)57.056.0113.0+1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)54.656.1110.6-1.536%-
vs Weaker (14)60.555.4115.9+5.157%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
59-72
59
72
-13
A05/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-56
70
56
+14
H07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H08/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
81-56
81
56
+25
H10/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H12/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
69-57
69
57
+12
H21/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
62-59
62
59
+3
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A27/02
NBA
118.1Avg total
60.4Scored
57.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.656.0114.6+2.663%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.555.4114.9+4.164%-
Last 30 away (16)57.856.6114.4+1.262%-
Last 10 (10)60.457.7118.1+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)58.854.6113.4+4.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)49.758.0107.7-8.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)56.956.1112.9+0.856%-
vs Weaker (11)63.555.5119.0+8.182%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 123.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws23.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.029.4
55.5%
54.8%58.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.813.7
36.2%
35.8%41.1
🏀 Free throws30.223.6
78.1%
78.1%23.6
They take 90.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 118.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.130.0
57.6%
54.8%60.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.513.4
36.7%
35.8%40.2
🏀 Free throws25.318.4
72.7%
78.1%18.4
They take 88.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWLWLWLWLL
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWLWWWLLWL
#6
League position
#10
+6.1
Net rating
+0.9
116.6
Offensive rating
115.4
110.5
Defensive rating
114.6
55.0%
Effective FG%
56.5%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
55.1%
13.0%
Turnover %
14.0%
27.6%
Off. rebound %
27.3%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.29
36.2%
3-point %
36.7%
67.3%
Assist %
57.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence116.6 · 115.4Defence110.5 · 114.6Shooting55.0% · 56.5%3-point %36.2% · 36.7%Ball care13.0% · 14.0%Off. rebounds27.6% · 27.3%Free throws0.33 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder121-127 OT
26/02/26HBoston Celtics103-84
22/02/26AGolden State Warriors117-128
21/02/26APortland Trail Blazers157-103
20/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers114-115
12/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies122-116
10/02/26HCleveland Cavaliers117-119
08/02/26AChicago Bulls136-120
05/02/26ANew York Knicks127-134 OT
04/02/26ADetroit Pistons121-124
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers94-88
25/02/26APortland Trail Blazers124-121
23/02/26HPhiladelphia 76ers108-135
21/02/26HDallas Mavericks122-111
12/02/26HPortland Trail Blazers133-109
10/02/26HAtlanta Hawks138-116
08/02/26HLos Angeles Clippers96-115
07/02/26HNew Orleans Pelicans115-119
05/02/26AToronto Raptors128-126
03/02/26AMemphis Grizzlies128-137

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL62%
HomeWLLWW59%
AwayWLWLL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games602733
Win %62%59%64%
Points / game120.5118.2122.5
Allowed / game115.9114.3117.2
Point differential+4.6+3.9+5.2
Avg total236.5232.5239.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (21)44% (9)50% (12)
Overtime %10%7%12%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW62%
HomeLWWWL65%
AwayWLWWW59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603129
Win %62%65%59%
Points / game119.2115.4123.2
Allowed / game114.7110.7119.0
Point differential+4.5+4.7+4.2
Avg total233.8226.1242.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%42%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (19)60% (10)33% (9)
Overtime %5%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder59451476%119.3108.5+10.8
2 Detroit Pistons58441476%117.5109.7+7.8
3 San Antonio Spurs58411771%117.8111.7+6.1
4 Boston Celtics59392066%115.0107.5+7.5
5 New York Knicks59372263%117.0111.2+5.8
6 Houston Rockets59372263%114.5109.2+5.3
7 Denver Nuggets60372362%120.5115.9+4.6
8 Minnesota Timberwolves60372362%119.2114.7+4.5
9 Cleveland Cavaliers61372461%119.4115.2+4.2
10 Los Angeles Lakers58352360%115.7115.4+0.3
11 Toronto Raptors59352459%114.2111.9+2.3
12 Phoenix Suns59342558%112.5110.9+1.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers59332656%116.7115.9+0.7
14 Orlando Magic56302654%114.8114.4+0.4
15 Miami Heat60322853%120.0117.0+3.0
16 Golden State Warriors60312952%115.6114.1+1.5
17 Charlotte Hornets61303149%116.0113.0+3.0
18 Atlanta Hawks61303149%117.1117.6-0.5
19 Portland Trail Blazers61293248%115.5118.1-2.6
20 Los Angeles Clippers58273147%111.7112.2-0.6
21 Milwaukee Bucks58263245%112.1115.6-3.5
22 Chicago Bulls60243640%115.7120.5-4.7
23 Memphis Grizzlies58223638%115.6117.9-2.3
24 Dallas Mavericks59213836%114.4118.0-3.6
25 New Orleans Pelicans61194231%115.0120.1-5.0
26 Utah Jazz60184230%117.8125.7-8.0
27 Washington Wizards59164327%112.2123.0-10.8
28 Brooklyn Nets59154425%107.0115.6-8.6
29 Indiana Pacers60154525%111.5119.5-8.0
30 Sacramento Kings61144723%110.4121.1-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets31193226108
Minnesota Timberwolves22363227117
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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