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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 122-111
40-25 29-32 27-31 26-23
Position#10
Record34-22
FormWLLWW
Points / game119.7
Allowed / game114.8
vs
Position#24
Record19-35
FormLLLLL
Points / game113.9
Allowed / game117.4
USANBA· Target Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Minnesota Timberwolves v Dallas Mavericks
24 Mar 2027
MIN v DAL
upcoming
12 Nov 2026
MIN v DAL
upcoming
20 Feb 2026
MIN122
DAL111
17 Nov 2025
MIN120
DAL96
29 Oct 2024
MIN114
DAL120
30 May 2024
MIN103
DAL124
24 May 2024
MIN108
DAL109
22 May 2024
MIN105
DAL108
31 Jan 2024
MIN121
DAL87
28 Dec 2023
MIN118
DAL110
21 Dec 2022
MIN99
DAL104
19 Dec 2022
MIN116
DAL106
25 Mar 2022
MIN116
DAL95
19 Dec 2021
MIN111
DAL105
16 May 2021
MIN136
DAL121
24 Mar 2021
MIN108
DAL128
01 Apr 2020
MIN v DAL
upcoming
01 Mar 2020
MIN91
DAL111
11 Jan 2019
MIN115
DAL119
10 Dec 2017
MIN97
DAL92
04 Nov 2017
MIN112
DAL99
24 Feb 2017
MIN97
DAL84
09 Jan 2017
MIN101
DAL92
03 Apr 2016
MIN78
DAL88
10 Jan 2016
MIN87
DAL93
21 Jan 2015
MIN75
DAL98
30 Dec 2013
MIN98
DAL100
08 Nov 2013
MIN116
DAL108
10 Mar 2013
MIN77
DAL100
15 Dec 2012
MIN114
DAL106
10 Feb 2012
MIN97
DAL104
01 Jan 2012
MIN99
DAL82
07 Mar 2011
MIN105
DAL108
08 Mar 2010
MIN112
DAL125
13 Nov 2009
MIN77
DAL89
31 Mar 2009
MIN88
DAL108
01 Nov 2008
MIN85
DAL95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
108-83
108
83
+25
112avg 111
H27/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
118-105
118
105
+13
106avg 111
A29/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
123-111
123
111
+12
117avg 111
H30/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
131-114
131
114
+17
128avg 111
A01/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
128-137
128
137
-9
117avg 111
A03/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
128-126
128
126
+2
116avg 111
A05/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
115-119
115
119
-4
102avg 111
H07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
96-115
96
115
-19
82avg 111
H08/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
138-116
138
116
+22
138avg 111
H10/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
133-109
133
109
+24
127avg 111
H12/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
32-18
22-19
33-26
31-29
27-19
34-27
26-30
34-22
29-28
33-30
27-31
30-21
28-28
39-30
34-35
29-36
29-30
28-32
42-39
32-35
27-37
35-32
34-22
32-34
38-22
24-33
21-30
19-23
23-31
17-26
37-35
41-34
40-22
25-31
32-29
32-26
29-25
35-31
37-27
235.3Avg total
121.8Scored
113.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (56)119.7114.8234.4+4.961%
Season at home (29)115.4109.8225.3+5.666%
Season away (27)124.2120.0244.3+4.256%
Last 10 (10)121.8113.5235.3+8.370%
Last 5 (5)122.0117.0239.0+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)115.4110.2225.6+5.280%
vs Similar (13)118.8116.5235.4+2.354%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)122.1115.2237.3+6.850%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
123-115
123
115
+8
122avg 103
H23/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
110-116
110
116
-6
94avg 103
H25/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
105-118
105
118
-13
97avg 103
H29/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
121-123
121
123
-2
110avg 103
H30/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
107-111
107
111
-4
92avg 103
A01/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
100-110
100
110
-10
90avg 103
H04/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
123-135
123
135
-12
109avg 103
H06/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
125-138
125
138
-13
112avg 103
A07/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
111-120
111
120
-9
101avg 103
A11/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
104-124
104
124
-20
91avg 103
A13/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
31-23
29-39
39-26
28-37
24-28
35-14
23-37
29-31
19-27
27-34
30-26
20-33
38-26
35-34
28-30
28-31
23-28
31-28
25-24
29-32
15-20
23-34
33-24
35-38
28-36
33-25
27-36
32-39
35-42
24-33
34-24
16-36
32-29
27-31
36-24
31-36
32-28
19-32
22-28
233.9Avg total
112.9Scored
121.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (54)113.9117.4231.4-3.535%
Season at home (30)115.5116.5232.0-0.947%
Season away (24)112.0118.6230.5-6.621%
Last 10 (10)112.9121.0233.9-8.110%
Last 5 (5)112.6125.4238.0-12.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)114.5118.8233.4-4.330%
vs Similar (6)124.8123.7248.5+1.233%
vs Weaker (4)109.8106.8216.5+3.075%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -6.8-6.8Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -6.8-6.8Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
Minnesota TimberwolvesDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H27/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
58-48
58
48
+10
A29/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
63-50
63
50
+13
H30/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A01/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
59-72
59
72
-13
A05/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-56
70
56
+14
H07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H08/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
81-56
81
56
+25
H10/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H12/02
NBA
114.3Avg total
60.3Scored
54.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.056.1114.1+1.960%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.654.6112.2+3.062%-
Last 30 away (14)58.557.8116.3+0.757%-
Last 10 (10)60.354.0114.3+6.370%-
Last 5 (5)62.657.8120.4+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)51.055.4106.4-4.440%-
vs Similar (13)57.456.3113.7+1.154%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)61.756.2117.8+5.575%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
55-50
55
50
+5
H23/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
52-65
52
65
-13
H25/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
48-58
48
58
-10
H29/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
58-59
58
59
-1
H30/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
51-59
51
59
-8
A01/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H04/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
63-74
63
74
-11
H06/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
67-81
67
81
-14
A07/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
48-65
48
65
-17
A11/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A13/02
NBA
117.6Avg total
54.9Scored
62.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.560.8119.3-2.237%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.257.8115.9+0.450%-
Last 30 away (14)58.964.2123.1-5.321%-
Last 10 (10)54.962.7117.6-7.810%-
Last 5 (5)57.067.2124.2-10.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)57.862.0119.8-4.225%-
vs Similar (6)64.860.2125.0+4.767%-
vs Weaker (4)52.855.8108.5-3.050%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 121.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.529.3
56.9%
54.8%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.214.9
39.0%
35.8%44.7
🏀 Free throws25.518.5
72.5%
78.1%18.5
They take 89.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 112.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.032.0
51.6%
54.8%64.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.69.5
33.2%
35.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws27.520.4
74.2%
78.1%20.4
They take 90.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWLLWLWWWW
Dallas Mavericks
LLLLLLLLLW
#10
League position
#24
+8.0
Net rating
-7.8
118.1
Offensive rating
108.4
110.0
Defensive rating
116.2
57.6%
Effective FG%
51.0%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
13.9%
Turnover %
11.8%
27.6%
Off. rebound %
22.6%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.30
39.0%
3-point %
33.2%
58.8%
Assist %
56.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence118.1 · 108.4Defence110.0 · 116.2Shooting57.6% · 51.0%3-point %39.0% · 33.2%Ball care13.9% · 11.8%Off. rebounds27.6% · 22.6%Free throws0.28 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 10%
■ Minnesota Timberwolves   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
12/02/26HPortland Trail Blazers133-109
10/02/26HAtlanta Hawks138-116
08/02/26HLos Angeles Clippers96-115
07/02/26HNew Orleans Pelicans115-119
05/02/26AToronto Raptors128-126
03/02/26AMemphis Grizzlies128-137
01/02/26AMemphis Grizzlies131-114
30/01/26HOklahoma City Thunder123-111
29/01/26ADallas Mavericks118-105
27/01/26HGolden State Warriors108-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/26ALos Angeles Lakers104-124
11/02/26APhoenix Suns111-120
07/02/26ASan Antonio Spurs125-138
06/02/26HSan Antonio Spurs123-135
04/02/26HBoston Celtics100-110
01/02/26AHouston Rockets107-111
30/01/26HCharlotte Hornets121-123
29/01/26HMinnesota Timberwolves105-118
25/01/26HLos Angeles Lakers110-116
23/01/26HGolden State Warriors123-115

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW61%
HomeWLLWW66%
AwayLWWLW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games562927
Win %61%66%56%
Points / game119.7115.4124.2
Allowed / game114.8109.8120.0
Point differential+4.9+5.6+4.2
Avg total234.4225.3244.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%41%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (18)60% (10)25% (8)
Overtime %5%0%11%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL35%
HomeLLLLL47%
AwayWLLLL21%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games543024
Win %35%47%21%
Points / game113.9115.5112.0
Allowed / game117.4116.5118.6
Point differential-3.5-0.9-6.6
Avg total231.4232.0230.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%17%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (15)56% (9)33% (6)
Overtime %7%10%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder54411376%119.6108.3+11.2
2 Detroit Pistons54411376%117.4109.3+8.1
3 San Antonio Spurs53371670%118.1111.8+6.3
4 Boston Celtics55361965%115.4108.4+7.0
5 Cleveland Cavaliers57362163%119.8115.3+4.5
6 Houston Rockets54342063%114.5109.5+5.0
7 Denver Nuggets56352162%120.2116.3+3.9
8 Los Angeles Lakers53332062%116.0115.7+0.2
9 New York Knicks54332161%117.6112.2+5.5
10 Minnesota Timberwolves56342261%119.7114.8+4.9
11 Toronto Raptors55332260%113.9112.0+2.0
12 Phoenix Suns55322358%113.7111.5+2.2
13 Philadelphia 76ers55302555%116.0115.9+0.1
14 Orlando Magic52282454%115.2114.7+0.6
15 Miami Heat55292653%119.8117.2+2.6
16 Golden State Warriors56292752%115.4113.8+1.6
17 Los Angeles Clippers55272849%112.0112.4-0.4
18 Portland Trail Blazers56272948%116.3118.3-2.0
19 Atlanta Hawks57273047%117.3118.4-1.1
20 Charlotte Hornets57263146%115.4113.7+1.7
21 Milwaukee Bucks53233043%111.8115.2-3.4
22 Chicago Bulls56243243%116.5120.4-3.9
23 Memphis Grizzlies54213339%115.4117.4-2.0
24 Dallas Mavericks54193535%113.9117.4-3.5
25 Utah Jazz57183932%118.2125.9-7.7
26 Washington Wizards55163929%112.5122.7-10.2
27 Brooklyn Nets54153928%107.2114.9-7.6
28 New Orleans Pelicans56154127%114.6120.4-5.8
29 Indiana Pacers57154226%111.2118.7-7.5
30 Sacramento Kings57124521%109.9120.8-10.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minnesota Timberwolves40292726122
Dallas Mavericks25323123111
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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