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Mogi vs Paulistano Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 82-72
Projected total 153.5
Scheduled
Position#2
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game73.9
Vs
81%
19%
■ MOGI 81%■ PAUL 19%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#13
Record3-4
FormWWLLL
Points / game69.6
Allowed / game73.9
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Prof. Hugo Ramos
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mogi v Paulistano
22 Nov 2026
MOGI v PAUL
upcoming
15 Apr 2026
MOGI84
PAUL70
12 Oct 2024
MOGI72
PAUL67
09 Apr 2024
MOGI64
PAUL61
28 Oct 2021
MOGI77
PAUL72
09 Mar 2021
MOGI62
PAUL69
03 Mar 2020
MOGI83
PAUL94
15 Feb 2019
MOGI89
PAUL91
02 Jun 2018
MOGI76
PAUL82
19 May 2018
MOGI82
PAUL99
03 Jan 2018
MOGI80
PAUL84
13 Nov 2016
MOGI86
PAUL55
17 Mar 2016
MOGI80
PAUL83
19 Mar 2015
MOGI88
PAUL77
13 Feb 2014
MOGI66
PAUL79
20 Dec 2012
MOGI77
PAUL73
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Mogi host Paulistano in the NBB. Pythia makes Mogi the favourite at 81% and projects 82-72, about 153 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Mogi are 6-1 this season (83.1 scored, 73.9 allowed a game), form WWWWW; Paulistano are 3-4 this season (69.6 scored, 73.9 allowed a game), form WWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mogi win
80.8%fair 1.24
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Paulistano win
19.2%fair 5.21
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MogiBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMogi
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
70-88
70
88
-18
65avg 68
H10/05
NBB
Franca
#1
W
102-90
102
90
+12
103avg 68
A13/05
NBB
Franca
#1
L
77-78
77
78
-1
74avg 68
A15/05
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
W
84-73
84
73
+11
80avg 68
H17/10
NBB
Franca
#6
L
74-90
74
90
-16
67avg 68
A21/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
79-61
79
61
+18
58avg 68
A23/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
W
78-70
78
70
+8
65avg 68
H26/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
89-78
89
78
+11
no box
H04/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
W
85-70
85
70
+15
no box
A09/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
93-75
93
75
+18
no box
A12/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-34
24-24
14-16
16-14
28-26
31-21
26-23
17-20
25-20
11-20
23-17
18-21
18-17
26-21
18-24
22-11
18-24
31-24
9-19
16-23
20-15
19-19
23-9
17-18
19-20
17-22
25-15
17-13
11-21
22-21
26-19
30-17
22-14
15-20
23-24
25-12
27-25
20-12
27-16
19-22
160.4Avg total
83.1Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.173.9157.0+9.386%
Season at home (3)83.773.7157.3+10.0100%
Season away (4)82.874.0156.8+8.875%
Last 10 (10)83.177.3160.4+5.870%
Last 5 (5)84.870.8155.6+14.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.686.4166.0-6.929%
vs Similar (11)77.673.4151.0+4.373%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)81.273.1154.3+8.283%
This opponent (Paulistano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaulistanoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulistano
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
92-101 OT
92
101
-9
77avg 73
A04/05
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
68-76
68
76
-8
54avg 73
H07/05
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
74-84
74
84
-10
59avg 73
H09/05
NBB
Pato
#15
W
80-74
80
74
+6
70avg 73
A21/10
NBB
Brasilia
#8
L
73-91
73
91
-18
50avg 73
A24/10
NBB
Franca
#6
W
65-62
65
62
+3
48avg 73
H28/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
83-75
83
75
+8
no box
H30/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
63-71
63
71
-8
no box
A04/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
58-65
58
65
-7
no box
A07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
65-79
65
79
-14
no box
A13/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-16
24-26
22-24
20-23
24-20
14-16
24-28
6-12
23-18
12-24
18-18
21-24
13-10
20-18
30-13
17-33
22-29
16-25
16-18
19-19
20-14
16-12
22-21
7-15
26-23
26-12
16-21
15-19
19-22
16-18
15-20
13-11
15-18
14-10
16-25
13-12
22-26
20-16
7-17
16-20
149.9Avg total
72.1Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)69.673.9143.4-4.343%
Season at home (2)74.068.5142.5+5.5100%
Season away (5)67.876.0143.8-8.220%
Last 10 (10)72.177.8149.9-5.730%
Last 5 (5)66.870.4137.2-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)74.882.0156.8-7.222%
vs Similar (10)83.681.0164.6+2.670%
vs Weaker (11)84.074.5158.5+9.573%
This opponent (Mogi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
53.1%
Under 152
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
40.7%
Under 157
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162
Over 162
29.3%
Under 162
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Mogi total 75.5
Over 75.5
73.2%
Under 75.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogi total 79.5
Over 79.5
58.7%
Under 79.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogi total 83.5
Over 83.5
42.8%
Under 83.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paulistano total 73.5
Over 73.5
42.8%
Under 73.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paulistano total 77.5
Over 77.5
28.5%
Under 77.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paulistano total 81.5
Over 81.5
17.2%
Under 81.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mogi -3
MOGI -3
74.7%
PAUL +3
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
MOGI
No market prices yet.
PAUL
No market prices yet.
Spread Mogi 0
MOGI 0
80.8%
PAUL 0
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
MOGI
No market prices yet.
PAUL
No market prices yet.
Spread Mogi +3
MOGI +3
86.5%
PAUL -3
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
MOGI
No market prices yet.
PAUL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -4.1-4.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -4.1-4.1
MogiPaulistano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MogiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#1
L
40-58
40
58
-18
H10/05
NBB
Franca
#1
W
59-47
59
47
+12
A13/05
NBB
Franca
#1
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A15/05
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H17/10
NBB
Franca
#6
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A21/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A23/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H26/10
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H04/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A09/11
NBB
Osasco
#16
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A12/11
NBB
84.0Avg total
42.0Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.138.778.8+1.463%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.138.177.2+0.969%-
Last 30 away (14)41.339.480.7+1.957%-
Last 10 (10)42.042.084.0+0.060%-
Last 5 (5)38.437.876.2+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.746.388.0-4.629%-
vs Similar (11)37.735.272.9+2.582%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)41.337.678.9+3.867%-
This opponent (Paulistano) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaulistanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A04/05
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H07/05
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H09/05
NBB
Pato
#15
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A21/10
NBB
Brasilia
#8
L
38-54
38
54
-16
A24/10
NBB
Franca
#6
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H28/10
NBB
Bauru
#11
W
52-35
52
35
+17
H30/10
NBB
Unifacisa
#5
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A04/11
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A07/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A13/11
NBB
75.8Avg total
38.5Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.138.679.8+2.557%-
Last 30 at home (13)44.237.882.1+6.477%-
Last 30 away (17)38.839.278.0-0.541%-
Last 10 (10)38.537.375.8+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)38.834.273.0+4.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)38.940.979.8-2.033%-
vs Similar (10)43.038.381.3+4.760%-
vs Weaker (11)41.337.178.4+4.273%-
This opponent (Mogi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mogitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mogi: 79.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.718.7
51.0%
49.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.810.5
33.0%
31.6%31.5
🏀 Free throws14.010.6
75.7%
71.3%10.6
They take 68.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Paulistanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paulistano: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.416.9
49.1%
49.8%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.310.2
33.7%
31.6%30.6
🏀 Free throws16.111.9
73.9%
71.3%11.9
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mogi
WWWWWLWLWL
Paulistano
LLLWWLWLLL
#2
League position
#13
+0.7
Net rating
+2.1
96.5
Offensive rating
89.1
95.8
Defensive rating
87.0
50.3%
Effective FG%
49.8%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
12.2%
Turnover %
17.5%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.25
33.0%
3-point %
33.7%
62.7%
Assist %
49.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence96.5 · 89.1Defence95.8 · 87.0Shooting50.3% · 49.8%3-point %33.0% · 33.7%Ball care12.2% · 17.5%Free throws0.20 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Mogi   ■ Paulistano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Mogi wins
6
Paulistano wins
DateGameScore
15/04/26Mogi v Paulistano84-70
27/12/25Paulistano v Mogi81-66
10/01/25Paulistano v Mogi76-63
12/10/24Mogi v Paulistano72-67
09/04/24Mogi v Paulistano64-61
27/12/23Paulistano v Mogi92-78
28/01/22Paulistano v Mogi69-62
28/10/21Mogi v Paulistano77-72
09/03/21Mogi v Paulistano62-69
04/12/20Paulistano v Mogi69-62
Mogilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AOsasco93-75
09/11/26APinheiros85-70
04/11/26HCearense89-78
26/10/26HUnifacisa78-70
23/10/26ABauru79-61
21/10/26AFranca74-90
17/10/26HCorinthians Paulista84-73
15/05/26AFranca77-78
13/05/26AFranca102-90
10/05/26HFranca70-88
Paulistanolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26ASao Jose65-79
07/11/26ACearense58-65
04/11/26AUnifacisa63-71
30/10/26HBauru83-75
28/10/26HFranca65-62
24/10/26ABrasilia73-91
21/10/26APato80-74
09/05/26HPinheiros74-84
07/05/26HPinheiros68-76
04/05/26APinheiros92-101 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mogi
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %86%100%75%
Points / game83.183.782.8
Allowed / game73.973.774.0
Point differential+9.3+10.0+8.8
Avg total157.0157.3156.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%67%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Paulistano
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL43%
HomeWW100%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games725
Win %43%100%20%
Points / game69.674.067.8
Allowed / game73.968.576.0
Point differential-4.3+5.5-8.2
Avg total143.4142.5143.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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