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Nagasaki vs Alvark Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 24 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 10:00
Scheduled
Position#16
Record5-7
FormLWLWW
Points / game75.8
Allowed / game80.2
vs
Position#5
Record9-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game94.1
Allowed / game83.5
JapanB League· Happiness Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Nagasaki v Alvark
24 Jan 2027
NAGA v ALVA
upcoming
08 May 2026
NAGA96
ALVA56
07 May 2026
NAGA93
ALVA78
08 Mar 2026
NAGA70
ALVA91
07 Mar 2026
NAGA78
ALVA93
08 Dec 2024
NAGA81
ALVA83
07 Dec 2024
NAGA52
ALVA89
17 Dec 2023
NAGA84
ALVA94
16 Dec 2023
NAGA62
ALVA71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shinshu
#22
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H08/10
B League
Gunma
#9
W
70-59
70
59
+11
H10/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
85-69
85
69
+16
H12/10
B League
KCC Egis
#2
L
83-98
83
98
-15
H14/10
EASL
Tokyo Sunrockers
#8
L
63-95
63
95
-32
A17/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#23
L
65-82
65
82
-17
H19/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
84-66
84
66
+18
A21/10
B League
Shiga
#14
L
85-89
85
89
-4
A23/10
B League
Ryukyu
#11
W
101-84
101
84
+17
H26/10
B League
Macau Hou Chon
#11
W
97-76
97
76
+21
A28/10
EASL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-22
16-24
15-10
24-15
15-16
27-19
9-10
19-14
19-13
20-13
23-26
23-17
16-26
27-17
27-28
13-27
20-30
15-22
17-18
11-25
17-15
16-27
21-18
11-22
24-20
24-15
17-17
19-14
14-21
29-16
9-27
33-25
24-15
26-20
28-22
23-27
30-21
25-25
14-15
28-15
159.6Avg total
80.7Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)75.880.2156.1-4.442%
Season at home (7)76.777.0153.7-0.357%
Season away (5)74.684.8159.4-10.220%
Last 10 (10)80.778.9159.6+1.860%
Last 5 (5)86.479.4165.8+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)75.082.4157.4-7.440%
vs Similar (6)75.280.8156.0-5.733%
vs Weaker (18)87.876.4164.2+11.383%
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chiba
#20
W
96-71
96
71
+25
A04/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H08/10
B League
Brave Thunders
#19
W
94-82
94
82
+12
A10/10
B League
Osaka
#26
W
103-78
103
78
+25
A12/10
B League
Xac Broncos
#12
W
113-78
113
78
+35
H14/10
EASL
Gunma
#9
W
100-86
100
86
+14
A17/10
B League
Akita
#21
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H19/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#15
L
66-69
66
69
-3
H22/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
82-91
82
91
-9
H24/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
112-88
112
88
+24
A26/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-18
25-21
27-14
22-18
29-15
15-19
22-22
24-18
17-19
26-24
30-21
21-18
26-17
25-21
27-19
25-21
35-13
12-13
26-31
40-21
33-32
19-23
25-16
23-15
23-20
21-14
24-25
22-15
19-19
22-21
14-15
11-14
19-23
18-21
18-15
27-32
33-13
28-17
21-30
30-28
173.7Avg total
94.6Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)94.183.5177.6+10.675%
Season at home (6)81.077.7158.7+3.350%
Season away (6)107.289.3196.5+17.8100%
Last 10 (10)94.679.1173.7+15.580%
Last 5 (5)90.081.6171.6+8.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)67.094.5161.5-27.50%
vs Similar (6)91.292.5183.7-1.333%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)89.076.8165.8+12.186%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +4.5+4.5
NagasakiAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shinshu
#22
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H08/10
B League
Gunma
#9
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H10/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H12/10
B League
KCC Egis
#2
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H14/10
EASL
Tokyo Sunrockers
#8
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A17/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#23
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H19/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
48-35
48
35
+13
A21/10
B League
Shiga
#14
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A23/10
B League
Ryukyu
#11
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H26/10
B League
Macau Hou Chon
#11
W
55-46
55
46
+9
A28/10
EASL
82.0Avg total
42.3Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.738.980.5+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.938.679.5+2.353%-
Last 30 away (11)43.039.482.4+3.673%-
Last 10 (10)42.339.782.0+2.660%-
Last 5 (5)45.839.084.8+6.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)36.637.874.4-1.260%-
vs Similar (6)38.239.377.5-1.250%-
vs Weaker (18)44.238.882.9+5.467%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chiba
#20
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A04/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H08/10
B League
Brave Thunders
#19
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A10/10
B League
Osaka
#26
W
51-38
51
38
+13
A12/10
B League
Xac Broncos
#12
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H14/10
EASL
Gunma
#9
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A17/10
B League
Akita
#21
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H19/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#15
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H22/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H24/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
61-30
61
30
+31
A26/10
B League
85.0Avg total
46.7Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.439.984.3+4.557%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.736.980.6+6.967%-
Last 30 away (15)45.143.088.1+2.147%-
Last 10 (10)46.738.385.0+8.470%-
Last 5 (5)47.040.687.6+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)34.540.575.0-6.050%-
vs Similar (6)45.546.792.2-1.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)44.938.683.5+6.362%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.8 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.117.6
51.6%
53.9%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.910.4
34.8%
32.7%31.2
🏀 Free throws14.010.2
72.9%
73.7%10.2
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 97.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.8 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.821.8
56.2%
53.9%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.412.2
36.5%
32.7%36.6
🏀 Free throws22.816.9
74.1%
73.7%16.9
They take 72.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WWLWLLLWWW
Alvark
WLLWWWWWWW
#16
League position
#5
-2.7
Net rating
+13.7
89.5
Offensive rating
105.0
92.2
Defensive rating
91.2
51.9%
Effective FG%
55.5%
50.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.7%
16.0%
Turnover %
11.8%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.32
34.8%
3-point %
36.5%
65.4%
Assist %
59.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence89.5 · 105.0Defence92.2 · 91.2Shooting51.9% · 55.5%3-point %34.8% · 36.5%Ball care16.0% · 11.8%Free throws0.22 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 80%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Nagasaki wins
6
Alvark wins
DateGameScore
08/05/26Nagasaki v Alvark96-56
07/05/26Nagasaki v Alvark93-78
08/03/26Nagasaki v Alvark70-91
07/03/26Nagasaki v Alvark78-93
08/12/24Nagasaki v Alvark81-83 OT
07/12/24Nagasaki v Alvark52-89
17/12/23Nagasaki v Alvark84-94
16/12/23Nagasaki v Alvark62-71
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26AMacau Hou Chon97-76
26/10/26HRyukyu101-84
23/10/26AShiga85-89
21/10/26ASaga84-66
19/10/26HAltiri Chiba65-82
17/10/26ATokyo Sunrockers63-95
14/10/26HKCC Egis83-98
12/10/26HKobe85-69
10/10/26HGunma70-59
08/10/26HShinshu74-71
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/10/26ASaga112-88
24/10/26HSeaHorses Mikawa82-91
22/10/26HIbaraki Robots66-69
19/10/26HAkita90-74
17/10/26AGunma100-86
14/10/26HXac Broncos113-78
12/10/26AOsaka103-78
10/10/26ABrave Thunders94-82
08/10/26HSaga90-74
04/10/26AChiba96-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW42%
HomeWWWLW57%
AwayLLLWL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %42%57%20%
Points / game75.876.774.6
Allowed / game80.277.084.8
Point differential-4.4-0.3-10.2
Avg total156.1153.7159.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %8%0%20%
Alvark
B League 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW75%
HomeLWWLL50%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game94.181.0107.2
Allowed / game83.577.789.3
Point differential+10.6+3.3+17.8
Avg total177.6158.7196.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %8%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Diamond Dolphins990100%93.174.7+18.4
2 Hiroshima D.1110191%92.479.5+12.9
3 NeoPhoenix76186%87.179.1+8.0
4 SeaHorses Mikawa86275%90.177.6+12.5
5 Alvark129375%94.183.5+10.6
6 Sendai129375%86.680.1+6.5
7 Kyoto118373%86.477.7+8.6
8 Tokyo Sunrockers128467%91.079.2+11.8
9 Gunma117464%78.975.2+3.7
10 Levanga Hokkaido106460%97.893.9+3.9
11 Ryukyu116555%84.981.2+3.7
12 Toyama116555%82.385.7-3.5
13 Utsunomiya Brex115645%81.482.0-0.6
14 Shiga115645%87.589.5-2.1
15 Ibaraki Robots125742%81.879.2+2.7
16 Nagasaki125742%75.880.2-4.4
17 Yokohama125742%79.686.1-6.5
18 Shimane104640%81.382.4-1.1
19 Brave Thunders114736%81.885.6-3.8
20 Chiba114736%91.598.0-6.5
21 Akita124833%78.685.4-6.8
22 Shinshu134931%84.587.5-3.1
23 Altiri Chiba134931%78.486.5-8.1
24 Kobe112918%78.686.5-7.8
25 Saga111109%75.594.4-18.8
26 Osaka111109%69.388.8-19.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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