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Saga vs Alvark Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 26 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 88-112
13-33 17-28 30-21 28-30
Position#25
Record1-9
FormWLLLL
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game92.6
vs
Alvark 🏆
Japan
Position#5
Record8-3
FormWWWLL
Points / game92.5
Allowed / game83.1
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Saga v Alvark
26 Oct 2026
SAGA88
ALVA112
07 Dec 2025
SAGA90
ALVA77
06 Dec 2025
SAGA91
ALVA64
30 Dec 2023
SAGA61
ALVA94
29 Dec 2023
SAGA68
ALVA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
87-100
87
100
-13
H25/09
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
61-89
61
89
-28
H27/09
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
61-97
61
97
-36
H03/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
89-93
89
93
-4
H04/10
B League
Alvark
#5
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A08/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
84-77
84
77
+7
A10/10
B League
Gunma
#9
L
61-72
61
72
-11
H12/10
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#10
L
90-109
90
109
-19
H16/10
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
70-115
70
115
-45
A18/10
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
66-84
66
84
-18
H21/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-29
16-25
29-19
16-27
22-23
12-19
20-20
7-27
22-27
14-23
15-29
10-18
19-26
20-25
31-20
19-22
15-29
19-15
22-22
18-24
27-20
17-12
15-26
25-19
15-16
12-16
17-17
17-23
24-28
21-26
19-23
26-32
18-29
21-33
16-24
15-29
20-24
15-24
17-17
14-19
166.9Avg total
74.3Scored
92.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)74.392.6166.9-18.310%
Season at home (7)73.692.0165.6-18.40%
Season away (3)76.094.0170.0-18.033%
Last 10 (10)74.392.6166.9-18.310%
Last 5 (5)74.291.4165.6-17.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)76.190.0166.1-13.913%
vs Similar (6)81.882.7164.5-0.850%
vs Weaker (9)87.178.4165.6+8.778%
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chiba
#20
W
138-131 OT
138
131
+7
A02/10
B League
Chiba
#20
W
96-71
96
71
+25
A04/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H08/10
B League
Brave Thunders
#19
W
94-82
94
82
+12
A10/10
B League
Osaka
#26
W
103-78
103
78
+25
A12/10
B League
Xac Broncos
#12
W
113-78
113
78
+35
H14/10
EASL
Gunma
#9
W
100-86
100
86
+14
A17/10
B League
Akita
#21
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H19/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#15
L
66-69
66
69
-3
H22/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
82-91
82
91
-9
H24/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-26
21-29
24-18
26-24
22-18
25-21
27-14
22-18
29-15
15-19
22-22
24-18
17-19
26-24
30-21
21-18
26-17
25-21
27-19
25-21
35-13
12-13
26-31
40-21
33-32
19-23
25-16
23-15
23-20
21-14
24-25
22-15
19-19
22-21
14-15
11-14
19-23
18-21
18-15
27-32
180.6Avg total
97.2Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)92.583.1175.5+9.473%
Season at home (6)81.077.7158.7+3.350%
Season away (5)106.289.6195.8+16.6100%
Last 10 (10)97.283.4180.6+13.880%
Last 5 (5)90.279.6169.8+10.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)67.094.5161.5-27.50%
vs Similar (7)90.092.6182.6-2.629%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)87.876.2164.1+11.585%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -4.3-4.3Q1: +4.7+4.7Q2Q2: -5.1-5.1Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: +4.1+4.1Q4Q4: -7.3-7.3Q4: +4.5+4.5
SagaAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H25/09
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H27/09
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
36-50
36
50
-14
H03/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H04/10
B League
Alvark
#5
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A08/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A10/10
B League
Gunma
#9
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H12/10
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#10
L
45-54
45
54
-9
H16/10
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
39-62
39
62
-23
A18/10
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H21/10
B League
84.4Avg total
37.5Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.442.785.1-0.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.044.385.3-3.325%-
Last 30 away (14)43.940.984.9+3.071%-
Last 10 (10)37.546.984.4-9.410%-
Last 5 (5)38.045.683.6-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)39.245.784.9-6.520%-
vs Similar (6)45.339.785.0+5.783%-
vs Weaker (9)45.739.885.4+5.967%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chiba
#20
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A02/10
B League
Chiba
#20
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A04/10
B League
Saga
#25
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H08/10
B League
Brave Thunders
#19
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A10/10
B League
Osaka
#26
W
51-38
51
38
+13
A12/10
B League
Xac Broncos
#12
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H14/10
EASL
Gunma
#9
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A17/10
B League
Akita
#21
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H19/10
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#15
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H22/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H24/10
B League
86.1Avg total
45.3Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.140.584.5+3.657%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.237.481.6+6.869%-
Last 30 away (14)43.943.987.9+0.043%-
Last 10 (10)45.340.886.1+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)44.239.884.0+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)34.540.575.0-6.050%-
vs Similar (7)46.346.692.9-0.343%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)44.139.083.2+5.160%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 73.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.8 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.916.9
48.4%
53.9%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.29.2
29.5%
32.7%27.6
🏀 Free throws16.112.5
77.6%
73.7%12.5
They take 66.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 93.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.8 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.721.9
55.2%
53.9%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.411.1
34.3%
32.7%33.3
🏀 Free throws22.216.2
73.0%
73.7%16.2
They take 72.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LLLLWLLLLL
Alvark
LLWWWWWWWW
#25
League position
#5
-21.6
Net rating
+10.1
85.9
Offensive rating
102.4
107.5
Defensive rating
92.3
46.4%
Effective FG%
53.5%
57.7%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
13.0%
Turnover %
11.0%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.31
29.5%
3-point %
34.3%
58.2%
Assist %
58.5%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence85.9 · 102.4Defence107.5 · 92.3Shooting46.4% · 53.5%3-point %29.5% · 34.3%Ball care13.0% · 11.0%Free throws0.24 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)10% · 80%
■ Saga   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Saga wins
7
Alvark wins
DateGameScore
08/10/26Alvark v Saga90-74
15/02/26Alvark v Saga96-83
14/02/26Alvark v Saga78-71
07/12/25Saga v Alvark90-77
06/12/25Saga v Alvark91-64
27/10/24Alvark v Saga79-66
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/10/26HNagasaki66-84
18/10/26AKyoto70-115
16/10/26HLevanga Hokkaido90-109
12/10/26HGunma61-72
10/10/26AKobe84-77
08/10/26AAlvark74-90
04/10/26HNeoPhoenix89-93
03/10/26HNeoPhoenix61-97
27/09/26HHiroshima D.61-89
25/09/26HHiroshima D.87-100
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HSeaHorses Mikawa82-91
22/10/26HIbaraki Robots66-69
19/10/26HAkita90-74
17/10/26AGunma100-86
14/10/26HXac Broncos113-78
12/10/26AOsaka103-78
10/10/26ABrave Thunders94-82
08/10/26HSaga90-74
04/10/26AChiba96-71
02/10/26AChiba138-131 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL10%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %10%0%33%
Points / game74.373.676.0
Allowed / game92.692.094.0
Point differential-18.3-18.4-18.0
Avg total166.9165.6170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Alvark
B League 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL73%
HomeLWWLL50%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %73%50%100%
Points / game92.581.0106.2
Allowed / game83.177.789.6
Point differential+9.4+3.3+16.6
Avg total175.5158.7195.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%50%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %9%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Diamond Dolphins880100%91.875.4+16.4
2 Hiroshima D.109190%92.681.0+11.6
3 NeoPhoenix76186%87.179.1+8.0
4 Kyoto97278%88.878.2+10.6
5 SeaHorses Mikawa86275%90.177.6+12.5
6 Alvark118373%92.583.1+9.4
7 Sendai118373%86.679.6+7.0
8 Tokyo Sunrockers128467%91.079.2+11.8
9 Ryukyu106460%85.079.2+5.8
10 Levanga Hokkaido106460%97.893.9+3.9
11 Gunma106460%78.375.3+3.0
12 Toyama106460%84.486.0-1.6
13 Shiga105550%89.388.1+1.2
14 Utsunomiya Brex105550%80.681.0-0.4
15 Yokohama115645%81.085.7-4.7
16 Shimane94544%80.982.0-1.1
17 Akita104640%78.785.7-7.0
18 Ibaraki Robots114736%81.780.8+0.9
19 Nagasaki114736%73.579.9-6.4
20 Chiba114736%91.598.0-6.5
21 Brave Thunders103730%80.885.3-4.5
22 Altiri Chiba113827%77.886.7-8.9
23 Kobe102820%77.885.4-7.6
24 Shinshu112918%83.789.0-5.3
25 Saga101910%74.392.6-18.3
26 Osaka111109%69.388.8-19.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga1317302888
Alvark33282130112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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