PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Alvark vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 08 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 90-74
29-15 15-19 22-22 24-18
Position#4
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game98.0
Allowed / game90.0
Alvark 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#25
Record0-4
FormWLLLL
Points / game74.5
Allowed / game94.8
JapanB League· Toyota Arena Tokyo
Other2026-27
Meetings · Alvark v Saga
08 Oct 2026
ALVA90
SAGA74
15 Feb 2026
ALVA96
SAGA83
14 Feb 2026
ALVA78
SAGA71
27 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA66
26 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Shiga
#18
W
101-74
101
74
+27
104avg 80
H25/04
B League
Shiga
#18
W
87-77
87
77
+10
89avg 80
H26/04
B League
Hokkaido
#9
W
111-104
111
104
+7
112avg 80
A02/05
B League
Hokkaido
#9
L
96-97
96
97
-1
99avg 80
A03/05
B League
Nagasaki
#1
L
78-93
78
93
-15
70avg 80
A07/05
B League
Nagasaki
#1
L
56-96
56
96
-40
40avg 80
A08/05
B League
Ryukyu
#12
W
84-73
84
73
+11
no box
H22/09
B League
Ryukyu
#12
L
74-85
74
85
-11
62avg 80
H23/09
B League
Chiba
#22
W
138-131 OT
138
131
+7
132avg 80
A02/10
B League
Chiba
#22
W
96-71
96
71
+25
86avg 80
A04/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-18
22-11
28-20
27-25
28-17
21-22
19-17
19-21
23-30
32-29
20-19
36-26
17-23
26-34
28-18
25-22
20-22
22-14
15-30
21-27
15-23
12-22
17-25
12-26
23-30
27-21
22-12
12-10
25-23
16-28
17-16
16-18
26-26
21-29
24-18
26-24
22-18
25-21
27-14
22-18
182.2Avg total
92.1Scored
90.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)98.090.0188.0+8.075%
Season at home (2)79.079.0158.0+0.050%
Season away (2)117.0101.0218.0+16.0100%
Last 10 (10)92.190.1182.2+2.060%
Last 5 (5)89.691.2180.8-1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)73.487.0160.4-13.629%
vs Similar (8)90.089.6179.6+0.438%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)86.776.2162.9+10.587%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
103-68
103
68
+35
102avg 76
A19/04
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
W
71-66
71
66
+5
63avg 76
H22/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
78-92
78
92
-14
70avg 76
A25/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
82avg 76
A26/04
B League
Akita
#26
W
85-72
85
72
+13
78avg 76
A02/05
B League
Akita
#26
W
87-70
87
70
+17
79avg 76
A03/05
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
87-100
87
100
-13
80avg 76
H25/09
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
61-89
61
89
-28
44avg 76
H27/09
B League
NeoPhoenix
#5
L
61-97
61
97
-36
47avg 76
H03/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#5
L
89-93
89
93
-4
81avg 76
H04/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-20
25-15
29-19
22-14
21-24
17-11
19-19
14-12
23-23
17-25
24-21
14-23
22-26
23-17
19-29
27-24
19-22
23-13
24-13
19-24
24-17
25-14
16-17
22-22
26-29
16-25
29-19
16-27
22-23
12-19
20-20
7-27
22-27
14-23
15-29
10-18
19-26
20-25
31-20
19-22
165.6Avg total
81.3Scored
84.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)74.594.8169.2-20.20%
Season at home (4)74.594.8169.2-20.20%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.384.3165.6-3.040%
Last 5 (5)77.089.8166.8-12.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)78.289.8168.0-11.69%
vs Similar (8)80.683.8164.4-3.138%
vs Weaker (11)87.976.5164.5+11.482%
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -4.3-4.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -4.3-4.3
AlvarkSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shiga
#18
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H25/04
B League
Shiga
#18
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H26/04
B League
Hokkaido
#9
L
55-59
55
59
-4
A02/05
B League
Hokkaido
#9
L
43-57
43
57
-14
A03/05
B League
Nagasaki
#1
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A07/05
B League
Nagasaki
#1
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A08/05
B League
Ryukyu
#12
L
50-51
50
51
-1
H22/09
B League
Ryukyu
#12
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H23/09
B League
Chiba
#22
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A02/10
B League
Chiba
#22
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A04/10
B League
90.8Avg total
44.7Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.241.784.9+1.553%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.539.583.9+5.060%-
Last 30 away (15)41.944.085.9-2.147%-
Last 10 (10)44.746.190.8-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)42.448.290.6-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)40.444.685.0-4.157%-
vs Similar (8)45.544.890.2+0.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)43.338.882.1+4.553%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#23
W
52-35
52
35
+17
A19/04
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#7
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H22/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A25/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A26/04
B League
Akita
#26
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A02/05
B League
Akita
#26
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A03/05
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H25/09
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H27/09
B League
NeoPhoenix
#5
L
36-50
36
50
-14
H03/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#5
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H04/10
B League
84.1Avg total
41.7Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.342.185.4+1.253%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.843.885.6-2.033%-
Last 30 away (15)44.840.385.1+4.573%-
Last 10 (10)41.742.484.1-0.750%-
Last 5 (5)40.045.685.6-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)40.245.185.3-4.927%-
vs Similar (8)43.140.183.2+3.062%-
vs Weaker (11)46.540.587.0+6.173%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 92.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.524.7
59.5%
53.6%49.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.89.4
32.6%
32.9%28.2
🏀 Free throws20.915.1
72.2%
73.8%15.1
They take 70.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 80.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.918.8
50.9%
53.6%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.49.8
32.2%
32.9%29.4
🏀 Free throws17.013.3
78.2%
73.8%13.3
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alvark
WWLWLLLWWW
Saga
LLLLWWLLWW
#4
League position
#25
+3.1
Net rating
-5.1
101.4
Offensive rating
94.5
98.4
Defensive rating
99.6
55.2%
Effective FG%
49.8%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
12.8%
Turnover %
12.2%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.25
32.6%
3-point %
32.2%
74.2%
Assist %
66.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence101.4 · 94.5Defence98.4 · 99.6Shooting55.2% · 49.8%3-point %32.6% · 32.2%Ball care12.8% · 12.2%Free throws0.30 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Alvark   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Alvark wins
2
Saga wins
DateGameScore
15/02/26Alvark v Saga96-83
14/02/26Alvark v Saga78-71
07/12/25Saga v Alvark90-77
06/12/25Saga v Alvark91-64
27/10/24Alvark v Saga79-66
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/26AChiba96-71
02/10/26AChiba138-131 OT
23/09/26HRyukyu74-85
22/09/26HRyukyu84-73
08/05/26ANagasaki56-96
07/05/26ANagasaki78-93
03/05/26AHokkaido96-97
02/05/26AHokkaido111-104
26/04/26HShiga87-77
25/04/26HShiga101-74
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/26HNeoPhoenix89-93
03/10/26HNeoPhoenix61-97
27/09/26HHiroshima D.61-89
25/09/26HHiroshima D.87-100
03/05/26AAkita87-70
02/05/26AAkita85-72
26/04/26ARyukyu91-96
25/04/26ARyukyu78-92
22/04/26HDiamond Dolphins71-66
19/04/26ANagoya Fighting Eagles103-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alvark
B League 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWL50%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%50%100%
Points / game98.079.0117.0
Allowed / game90.079.0101.0
Point differential+8.0+0.0+16.0
Avg total188.0158.0218.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %25%0%50%
Saga
B League 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
HomeLLLL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game74.574.5-
Allowed / game94.894.8-
Point differential-20.2-20.2-
Avg total169.2169.2-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Diamond Dolphins440100%89.573.5+16.0
2 Hiroshima D.550100%91.675.8+15.8
3 NeoPhoenix440100%90.276.8+13.5
4 Gunma440100%81.270.2+11.0
5 Tokyo Sunrockers54180%91.080.0+11.0
6 Kyoto54180%85.478.6+6.8
7 SeaHorses Mikawa43175%88.074.2+13.8
8 Alvark43175%98.090.0+8.0
9 Shimane53260%84.480.0+4.4
10 Levanga Hokkaido53260%94.892.8+2.0
11 Yokohama53260%77.476.6+0.8
12 Utsunomiya Brex42250%81.276.5+4.8
13 Shinshu42250%87.887.2+0.5
14 Ryukyu42250%81.085.8-4.8
15 Sendai52340%85.882.4+3.4
16 Shiga52340%89.086.0+3.0
17 Toyama52340%82.286.2-4.0
18 Kobe41325%74.584.0-9.5
19 Brave Thunders41325%78.289.0-10.8
20 Chiba41325%94.5105.2-10.8
21 Akita41325%67.282.5-15.2
22 Altiri Chiba51420%76.084.0-8.0
23 Osaka51420%65.679.2-13.6
24 Ibaraki Robots5050%78.283.8-5.6
25 Nagasaki4040%70.887.0-16.2
26 Saga4040%74.594.8-20.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Alvark2915222490
Saga1519221874
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.