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Nagasaki vs Alvark Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 08:05
Final 78-93
20-25 19-28 19-26 20-14
Position#1
Record33-6
FormWLWWW
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game77.7
vs
Alvark 🏆
Japan
Position#8
Record27-12
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game76.8
JapanB League· Happiness Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Nagasaki v Alvark
24 Jan 2027
NAGA v ALVA
upcoming
08 May 2026
NAGA96
ALVA56
07 May 2026
NAGA93
ALVA78
08 Mar 2026
NAGA70
ALVA91
07 Mar 2026
NAGA78
ALVA93
08 Dec 2024
NAGA81
ALVA83
07 Dec 2024
NAGA52
ALVA89
17 Dec 2023
NAGA84
ALVA94
16 Dec 2023
NAGA62
ALVA71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Yokohama
#15
W
91-78
91
78
+13
86avg 82
H04/01
B League
NeoPhoenix
#10
W
95-70
95
70
+25
94avg 82
A24/01
B League
NeoPhoenix
#10
L
87-95
87
95
-8
77avg 82
A25/01
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
85-87 OT
85
87
-2
73avg 82
A28/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
84-71
84
71
+13
83avg 82
H31/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
98-74
98
74
+24
96avg 82
H01/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
L
74-89
74
89
-15
60avg 82
A06/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
W
105-75
105
75
+30
111avg 82
A07/02
B League
Gunma
#5
W
97-80
97
80
+17
92avg 82
A14/02
B League
Gunma
#5
W
77-72
77
72
+5
68avg 82
A15/02
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
30-21
16-13
20-14
30-18
24-15
22-19
19-18
23-26
17-23
27-26
20-20
19-23
14-25
19-10
20-14
13-19
26-14
22-22
23-16
28-10
23-24
23-18
24-22
19-24
15-22
18-11
22-32
21-16
23-21
29-19
32-19
22-19
19-18
26-24
30-19
16-17
18-27
17-13
26-15
168.4Avg total
89.3Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)93.077.7170.7+15.385%
Season at home (19)92.776.0168.7+16.795%
Season away (20)93.279.3172.6+13.975%
Last 10 (10)89.379.1168.4+10.270%
Last 5 (5)90.278.0168.2+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)87.076.0163.0+11.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)93.978.9172.8+15.082%
This opponent (Alvark) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Osaka
#17
W
105-88
105
88
+17
109avg 75
A25/01
B League
Akita
#26
W
98-74
98
74
+24
102avg 75
A28/01
B League
Toyama
#24
W
75-66
75
66
+9
69avg 75
H31/01
B League
Toyama
#24
W
70-69
70
69
+1
56avg 75
H01/02
B League
New Taipei Kings
#8
W
92-79
92
79
+13
97avg 75
H04/02
EASL
Chiba
#6
W
75-73
75
73
+2
72avg 75
A07/02
B League
Chiba
#6
L
64-72
64
72
-8
58avg 75
A08/02
B League
Xac Broncos
#6
W
97-93
97
93
+4
94avg 75
A11/02
EASL
Saga
#12
W
78-71
78
71
+7
80avg 75
H14/02
B League
Saga
#12
W
96-83
96
83
+13
106avg 75
H15/02
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-21
29-24
20-23
26-20
32-18
23-14
22-22
21-20
26-13
8-23
23-17
18-13
21-24
18-24
23-8
8-13
20-13
22-24
30-20
20-22
23-20
21-21
21-16
10-16
10-23
16-18
27-14
11-17
22-20
22-21
22-24
31-28
13-15
25-20
19-27
21-9
23-15
22-23
22-13
29-32
161.8Avg total
85.0Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)80.376.8157.1+3.569%
Season at home (20)77.273.8151.1+3.570%
Season away (19)83.580.0163.5+3.568%
Last 10 (10)85.076.8161.8+8.290%
Last 5 (5)82.078.4160.4+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)62.076.5138.5-14.50%
vs Similar (14)80.177.7157.8+2.471%
vs Weaker (14)87.176.6163.7+10.493%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +4.5+4.5Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: +0.5+0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +4.5+4.5Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: +0.5+0.5
NagasakiAlvark
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Yokohama
#15
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H04/01
B League
NeoPhoenix
#10
W
54-33
54
33
+21
A24/01
B League
NeoPhoenix
#10
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A25/01
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#4
L
33-48
33
48
-15
A28/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H31/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#13
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H01/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A06/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#2
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A07/02
B League
Gunma
#5
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A14/02
B League
Gunma
#5
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A15/02
B League
83.7Avg total
42.5Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.040.487.4+6.670%-
Last 30 at home (16)47.939.787.6+8.281%-
Last 30 away (14)45.941.287.1+4.657%-
Last 10 (10)42.541.283.7+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)40.839.680.4+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)37.540.578.0-3.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)47.640.488.0+7.271%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osaka
#17
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A25/01
B League
Akita
#26
W
55-32
55
32
+23
A28/01
B League
Toyama
#24
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H31/01
B League
Toyama
#24
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H01/02
B League
New Taipei Kings
#8
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H04/02
EASL
Chiba
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A07/02
B League
Chiba
#6
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A08/02
B League
Xac Broncos
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A11/02
EASL
Saga
#12
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H14/02
B League
Saga
#12
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H15/02
B League
82.0Avg total
42.6Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.739.180.8+2.663%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.437.576.9+1.964%-
Last 30 away (16)43.740.584.2+3.262%-
Last 10 (10)42.639.482.0+3.270%-
Last 5 (5)39.439.278.6+0.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)30.039.069.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (14)41.938.180.0+3.771%-
vs Weaker (14)43.240.183.3+3.164%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 89.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.719.1
58.4%
53.1%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.912.1
36.8%
33.7%36.3
🏀 Free throws20.414.8
72.5%
73.1%14.8
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 84.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.218.7
56.3%
53.1%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.510.9
38.2%
33.7%32.7
🏀 Free throws19.214.8
77.1%
73.1%14.8
They take 61.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WWWLWWLLWW
Alvark
WWWLWWWWWW
#1
League position
#8
+11.7
Net rating
+10.1
102.7
Offensive rating
101.6
91.0
Defensive rating
91.6
56.8%
Effective FG%
56.8%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
48.5%
13.7%
Turnover %
15.9%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.31
36.8%
3-point %
38.2%
69.2%
Assist %
76.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 101.6Defence91.0 · 91.6Shooting56.8% · 56.8%3-point %36.8% · 38.2%Ball care13.7% · 15.9%Off. rebounds16.7% · -Free throws0.31 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 90%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Alvark
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Nagasaki wins
4
Alvark wins
DateGameScore
08/12/24Nagasaki v Alvark81-83 OT
07/12/24Nagasaki v Alvark52-89
17/12/23Nagasaki v Alvark84-94
16/12/23Nagasaki v Alvark62-71
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/26AGunma77-72
14/02/26AGunma97-80
07/02/26AUtsunomiya Brex105-75
06/02/26AUtsunomiya Brex74-89
01/02/26HHiroshima D.98-74
31/01/26HHiroshima D.84-71
28/01/26ASeaHorses Mikawa85-87 OT
25/01/26ANeoPhoenix87-95
24/01/26ANeoPhoenix95-70
04/01/26HYokohama91-78
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/26HSaga96-83
14/02/26HSaga78-71
11/02/26AXac Broncos97-93
08/02/26AChiba64-72
07/02/26AChiba75-73
04/02/26HNew Taipei Kings92-79
01/02/26HToyama70-69
31/01/26HToyama75-66
28/01/26AAkita98-74
25/01/26AOsaka105-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW85%
HomeWWWWW95%
AwayLLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391920
Win %85%95%75%
Points / game93.092.793.2
Allowed / game77.776.079.3
Point differential+15.3+16.7+13.8
Avg total170.7168.7172.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%74%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %3%0%5%
Alvark
B League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW69%
HomeWWWWW70%
AwayWWWWL68%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392019
Win %69%70%68%
Points / game80.377.283.5
Allowed / game76.873.880.0
Point differential+3.5+3.5+3.5
Avg total157.1151.1163.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%35%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)75% (4)100% (4)
Overtime %8%5%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki3933685%93.077.7+15.3
2 Diamond Dolphins4031978%83.772.7+11.1
3 Utsunomiya Brex40301075%85.279.5+5.7
4 Chiba40281270%82.475.9+6.5
5 Alvark39271269%80.376.8+3.5
6 Hokkaido39271269%88.184.9+3.2
7 SeaHorses Mikawa40271368%84.078.3+5.7
8 Ryukyu39261367%81.574.9+6.7
9 Gunma40241660%82.174.8+7.3
10 Hiroshima D.40241660%86.183.2+3.0
11 Sendai39231659%80.178.7+1.4
12 Shimane39211854%81.980.5+1.4
13 NeoPhoenix40211952%83.582.4+1.1
14 Saga40211952%81.681.9-0.3
15 Sun Rockers Shibuya39162341%75.880.5-4.6
16 Yokohama39152438%78.281.8-3.6
17 Nagoya Fighting Eagles40152538%81.083.1-2.0
18 Osaka40152538%79.781.9-2.1
19 Koshigaya Alphas40152538%73.579.8-6.2
20 Shiga39132633%80.486.7-6.3
21 Altiri Chiba40132732%79.483.9-4.5
22 Ibaraki Robots40122830%75.180.2-5.2
23 Kyoto40122830%71.480.2-8.8
24 Toyama40103025%81.989.7-7.8
25 Brave Thunders3993023%75.884.4-8.6
26 Akita4073318%73.885.1-11.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki2019192078
Alvark2528261493
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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