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Newcastle Falcons vs Canberra Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 May 2025
Tip-off: 05:15
Final 75-69
16-23 24-16 16-15 19-15
Position#9
Record2-5
FormLWLWL
Points / game75.6
Allowed / game80.9
vs
Position#1
Record6-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game93.6
Allowed / game77.6
AustraliaNBL1 East
Other2025
Meetings · Newcastle Falcons v Canberra
11 May 2025
NEWC75
CANB69
14 Apr 2024
NEWC60
CANB67
25 Mar 2023
NEWC81
CANB72
01 May 2022
NEWC68
CANB65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newcastle Falcons winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Canberra winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Newcastle FalconsAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hornsby S.
#14
W
104-97
104
97
+7
A06/07
NBL1 East
Inner West Bulls
#6
L
76-80
76
80
-4
H07/07
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#1
L
64-85
64
85
-21
H13/07
NBL1 East
Sydney Comets
#5
L
67-71
67
71
-4
H29/03
NBL1 East
Central Coast Crusaders
#10
L
71-98
71
98
-27
A05/04
NBL1 East
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
#15
L
72-77
72
77
-5
H06/04
NBL1 East
Illawarra Hawks 2
#2
W
84-68
84
68
+16
H12/04
NBL1 East
Illawarra Hawks 2
#2
L
77-88 OT
77
88
-11
A26/04
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#12
W
84-61
84
61
+23
H03/05
NBL1 East
Sutherland Sharks
#7
L
74-103
74
103
-29
A10/05
NBL1 East
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-12
25-31
15-23
34-31
12-20
23-11
23-23
18-26
15-17
20-28
18-24
11-16
24-19
11-23
15-15
17-14
20-24
11-25
26-21
14-28
18-27
21-22
23-13
10-15
26-18
26-22
21-18
11-10
25-24
17-13
12-14
15-18
21-8
27-13
12-22
24-18
25-30
17-18
13-21
19-34
160.1Avg total
77.3Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)75.680.9156.4-5.329%
Season at home (4)76.869.2146.0+7.550%
Season away (3)74.096.3170.3-22.30%
Last 10 (10)77.382.8160.1-5.530%
Last 5 (5)78.279.4157.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)71.684.2155.8-12.618%
vs Similar (6)74.274.2148.3+0.050%
vs Weaker (7)84.478.0162.4+6.471%
This opponent (Canberra) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CanberraAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BA CoE
#4
W
95-74
95
74
+21
H20/07
NBL1 East
Sydney Comets
#7
W
73-55
73
55
+18
H03/08
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#1
L
67-86
67
86
-19
H10/08
NBL1 East
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
#15
W
96-75
96
75
+21
A29/03
NBL1 East
Inner West Bulls
#13
W
89-83
89
83
+6
H05/04
NBL1 East
Norths Bears
#4
W
81-63
81
63
+18
A12/04
NBL1 East
BA CoE
#3
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H25/04
NBL1 East
Penrith P.
#16
W
108-72
108
72
+36
H27/04
NBL1 East
Hornsby S.
#14
W
118-77
118
77
+41
H03/05
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#12
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A10/05
NBL1 East
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
23-24
25-22
19-9
16-21
26-9
14-20
17-5
15-18
13-22
20-28
19-18
18-23
27-20
28-18
23-14
26-23
25-20
19-18
19-22
21-17
20-13
14-20
26-13
33-23
24-25
15-10
19-29
33-19
29-19
18-12
28-22
24-27
37-22
33-12
24-16
12-26
23-14
15-23
22-23
164.8Avg total
89.0Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)93.677.6171.1+16.086%
Season at home (4)101.579.8181.2+21.8100%
Season away (3)83.074.7157.7+8.367%
Last 10 (10)89.075.8164.8+13.280%
Last 5 (5)94.077.0171.0+17.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)72.785.3158.0-12.733%
vs Similar (4)88.884.0172.8+4.8100%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)90.372.1162.4+18.291%
This opponent (Newcastle Falcons) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: +5.9+5.9Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +4.5+4.5
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: +5.9+5.9Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +4.5+4.5
Newcastle FalconsCanberra
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Newcastle FalconsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hornsby S.
#14
W
55-43
55
43
+12
A06/07
NBL1 East
Inner West Bulls
#6
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H07/07
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#1
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H13/07
NBL1 East
Sydney Comets
#5
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H29/03
NBL1 East
Central Coast Crusaders
#10
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A05/04
NBL1 East
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
#15
L
39-49
39
49
-10
H06/04
NBL1 East
Illawarra Hawks 2
#2
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H12/04
NBL1 East
Illawarra Hawks 2
#2
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A26/04
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#12
W
48-21
48
21
+27
H03/05
NBL1 East
Sutherland Sharks
#7
L
42-48
42
48
-6
A10/05
NBL1 East
81.9Avg total
41.4Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.441.278.7-3.837%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.238.275.4-1.150%-
Last 30 away (14)37.744.682.4-6.921%-
Last 10 (10)41.440.581.9+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)44.639.083.6+5.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)35.044.279.2-9.224%-
vs Similar (6)38.734.272.8+4.550%-
vs Weaker (7)42.340.082.3+2.357%-
This opponent (Canberra) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CanberraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BA CoE
#4
W
51-43
51
43
+8
H20/07
NBL1 East
Sydney Comets
#7
W
42-30
42
30
+12
H03/08
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#1
L
28-40
28
40
-12
H10/08
NBL1 East
Albury-Wodonga Bandits
#15
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A29/03
NBL1 East
Inner West Bulls
#13
W
51-43
51
43
+8
H05/04
NBL1 East
Norths Bears
#4
W
41-30
41
30
+11
A12/04
NBL1 East
BA CoE
#3
W
57-48
57
48
+9
H25/04
NBL1 East
Penrith P.
#16
W
62-38
62
38
+24
H27/04
NBL1 East
Hornsby S.
#14
W
61-49
61
49
+12
H03/05
NBL1 East
Maitland M.
#12
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A10/05
NBL1 East
87.7Avg total
47.3Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.138.384.4+7.873%-
Last 30 at home (17)48.839.988.8+8.982%-
Last 30 away (13)42.536.278.7+6.462%-
Last 10 (10)47.340.487.7+6.980%-
Last 5 (5)51.241.092.2+10.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)40.340.781.0-0.333%-
vs Similar (4)45.246.091.2-0.825%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)47.036.783.7+10.387%-
This opponent (Newcastle Falcons) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Newcastle Falcons wins
2
Canberra wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/25ASutherland Sharks74-103
03/05/25HMaitland M.84-61
26/04/25AIllawarra Hawks 277-88 OT
12/04/25HIllawarra Hawks 284-68
06/04/25HAlbury-Wodonga Bandits72-77
05/04/25ACentral Coast Crusaders71-98
29/03/25HSydney Comets67-71
13/07/24HMaitland M.64-85
07/07/24HInner West Bulls76-80
06/07/24AHornsby S.104-97
Canberralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/25AMaitland M.72-86
03/05/25HHornsby S.118-77
27/04/25HPenrith P.108-72
25/04/25HBA CoE91-87
12/04/25ANorths Bears81-63
05/04/25HInner West Bulls89-83
29/03/25AAlbury-Wodonga Bandits96-75
10/08/24HMaitland M.67-86
03/08/24HSydney Comets73-55
20/07/24HBA CoE95-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Newcastle Falcons
NBL1 East 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL29%
HomeLLWW50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%50%0%
Points / game75.676.874.0
Allowed / game80.969.296.3
Point differential-5.3+7.5-22.3
Avg total156.4146.0170.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %14%0%33%
Canberra
NBL1 East 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game93.6101.583.0
Allowed / game77.679.874.7
Point differential+16.0+21.8+8.3
Avg total171.1181.2157.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%50%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 BA CoE76186%89.066.7+22.3
2 Canberra76186%93.677.6+16.0
3 Sutherland Sharks76186%87.676.0+11.6
4 Maitland M.85362%86.680.8+5.9
5 Sydney Comets85362%74.269.5+4.8
6 Illawarra Hawks 285362%82.083.4-1.4
7 Hills Hornets84450%77.676.1+1.5
8 Central Coast Crusaders84450%82.181.6+0.5
9 Norths Bears84450%74.176.2-2.1
10 Bankstown Bruins84450%81.085.2-4.2
11 Inner West Bulls73443%87.689.1-1.6
12 Manly W.73443%77.078.6-1.6
13 Newcastle Falcons72529%75.680.9-5.3
14 Penrith P.92722%77.388.6-11.2
15 Hornsby S.71614%77.688.1-10.6
16 Albury-Wodonga Bandits81712%74.193.4-19.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Newcastle Falcons1624161975
Canberra2316151569
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