PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Northern Iowa vs Murray State Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 21 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#257
Record2-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game85.2
Allowed / game86.0
vs
Position#23
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game67.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Northern Iowa v Murray State
21 Jan 2027
NORT v MURR
upcoming
24 Jan 2026
NORT81
MURR76
08 Jan 2025
NORT68
MURR71
03 Feb 2024
NORT43
MURR71
10 Jan 2023
NORT75
MURR67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Northern Iowa win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Northern IowaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H06/03
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
74-52
74
52
+22
A07/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
73-69
73
69
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
84-69
84
69
+15
A08/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
53-79
53
79
-26
A20/03
NCAA
Cornell College
#434
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H04/11
NCAA
Furman
#79
L
83-98
83
98
-15
A07/11
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#176
W
89-76
89
76
+13
H11/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#26
L
72-106
72
106
-34
A14/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
L
76-80
76
80
-4
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-36
33-23
35-27
39-25
45-32
28-37
48-41
36-28
28-47
25-32
45-42
61-28
31-44
52-54
46-30
43-46
44-59
28-47
42-46
34-34
153.6Avg total
77.8Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)85.286.0171.2-0.840%
Season at home (2)97.573.0170.5+24.5100%
Season away (3)77.094.7171.7-17.70%
Last 10 (10)77.875.8153.6+2.060%
Last 5 (5)85.286.0171.2-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)75.585.8161.2-10.225%
vs Similar (11)68.169.2137.3-1.136%
vs Weaker (14)69.560.4129.9+9.171%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
88-75
88
75
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
79-92
79
92
-13
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#187
W
94-64
94
64
+30
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
93-71
93
71
+22
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
94-57
94
57
+37
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
99-78
99
78
+21
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-21
31-51
39-24
31-63
28-36
33-42
37-36
51-39
35-36
43-51
32-50
47-42
46-35
48-29
42-39
51-32
51-30
43-27
50-38
49-40
159.1Avg total
83.0Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)95.067.5162.5+27.5100%
Season at home (3)95.368.7164.0+26.7100%
Season away (1)94.064.0158.0+30.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.076.1159.1+6.960%
Last 5 (5)91.872.4164.2+19.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.489.7170.1-9.329%
vs Similar (14)81.377.8159.1+3.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)87.470.6158.0+16.9100%
This opponent (Northern Iowa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +5.8+5.82nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: +1.1+1.1
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +5.8+5.82nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: +1.1+1.1
Northern IowaMurray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Northern IowaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H06/03
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
35-27
35
27
+8
A07/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A07/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A08/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A20/03
NCAA
Cornell College
#434
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H04/11
NCAA
Furman
#79
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A07/11
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#176
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H11/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#26
L
44-59
44
59
-15
A14/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A14/11
NCAA
80.3Avg total
39.9Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.233.167.4+1.143%-
Last 30 at home (13)34.231.265.3+3.046%-
Last 30 away (17)34.334.668.9-0.441%-
Last 10 (10)39.940.480.3-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)41.644.285.8-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)37.040.277.2-3.225%-
vs Similar (11)33.733.867.5-0.145%-
vs Weaker (14)33.129.963.0+3.143%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#187
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A02/11
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H08/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#389
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H11/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#328
W
50-38
50
38
+12
H14/11
NCAA
74.8Avg total
40.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.836.276.0+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.235.276.4+6.182%-
Last 30 away (13)37.837.575.4+0.346%-
Last 10 (10)40.334.574.8+5.870%-
Last 5 (5)44.238.482.6+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.739.976.6-3.157%-
vs Similar (14)37.936.274.1+1.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.033.378.3+11.7100%-
This opponent (Northern Iowa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Northern Iowa wins
2
Murray State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AOakland76-80
14/11/26AMichigan State72-106
11/11/26HWisc. Green Bay89-76
07/11/26AFurman83-98
04/11/26HCornell College106-70
20/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)53-79
08/03/26AIllinois (Chi.)84-69
07/03/26ABradley73-69
07/03/26AIllinois State74-52
06/03/26HEvansville68-59
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HTexas Southern99-78
11/11/26HAlcorn State94-57
08/11/26HNorthwestern St.93-71
02/11/26ATennessee State94-64
06/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-92
01/03/26ABradley78-87
21/02/26HEvansville88-75
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Northern Iowa
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%100%0%
Points / game85.297.577.0
Allowed / game86.073.094.7
Point differential-0.8+24.5-17.7
Avg total171.2170.5171.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Murray State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game95.095.394.0
Allowed / game67.568.764.0
Point differential+27.5+26.7+30.0
Avg total162.5164.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.